This book presents the definitive exposition of 'prospect theory', a compelling alternative to the classical utility theory of choice. Building on the 1982 volume, Judgement Under Uncertainty, this book brings together seminal papers on prospect theory from economists, decision theorists, and psychologists, including the work of the late Amos Tversky, whose contributions are collected here for the first time. While remaining within a rational choice framework, prospect theory delivers more accurate, empirically verified predictions in key test cases, as well as helping to explain many complex, real-world puzzles. In this volume, it is brought to bear on phenomena as diverse as the principles of legal compensation, the equity premium puzzle in financial markets, and the number of hours that New York cab drivers choose to drive on rainy days. Theoretically elegant and empirically robust, this volume shows how prospect theory has matured into a new science of decision making.
Daniel Kahneman (Hebrew: דניאל כהנמן; born 5 March 1934 - died 27 March 2024), was an Israeli-American psychologist and winner of the 2002 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, notable for his work on behavioral finance and hedonic psychology.
With Amos Tversky and others, Kahneman established a cognitive basis for common human errors using heuristics and biases (Kahneman & Tversky, 1973, Kahneman, Slovic & Tversky, 1982), and developed Prospect theory (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979). He was awarded the 2002 Nobel Prize in Economics for his work in Prospect theory. Currently, he is professor emeritus of psychology at Princeton University's Department of Psychology.
Daniel Kahneman y the late Amos Tversky han comenzado una nueva perspectiva sobre las categorías económicas tradicionales de elección, decisión y valor. Una serie de estudios experimentales y empíricos realizados por ellos y otros han rechazado los supuestos económicos tradicionales de racionalidad.
This is a good list of articles by behavioral economists Kahneman, Tversky, Knetsch, Rabin, Thaler, Camerer, and many others, getting all smart about human irrationality, based on lightly-controlled experiments forged on tiny samples.
Extraordinary collection of academic papers with insights into how actual human agents veer from rational choices. The paper on optimism and the utility of using an "outside view" to ground assumptions stuck with me.
Dry as one imagines economic papers to be. Great content once one filters out all the unneeded bla-bla around it. Much more time efficient to read Thinking Fast and Slow deeply ...
Although this is the driest book I've ever read, it helps illustrate in a scientific way the different ways that I am dumb. It's humbling and has been useful to understand. Highly recommend it.