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The Complete Turtle Trader: Revised Edition
Not yet published
Expected 31 Dec 75This is the true story behind Wall Street legend Richard Dennis, his disciples, the Turtles, and the trading techniques that made them millionaires.
What happens when ordinary people are taught a system to make extraordinary money? Richard Dennis made a fortune on Wall Street by investing according to a few simple rules. Convinced that great trading was a skill that could be taught to anyone, he made a bet with his partner and ran a classified ad in the Wall Street Journal looking for novices to train. His recruits, later known as the Turtles, had anything but traditional Wall Street backgrounds; they included a professional blackjack player, a pianist, and a fantasy game designer. For two weeks, Dennis taught them his investment rules and philosophy, and set them loose to start trading, each with a million dollars of his money. By the time the experiment ended, Dennis had made a hundred million dollars from his Turtles and created one killer Wall Street legend.
In The Complete Turtle Trader, Michael W. Covel, bestselling author of Trend Following and managing editor of TurtleTrader.com, the leading website on the Turtles, tells their riveting story with the first ever on the record interviews with individual Turtles. He describes how Dennis interviewed and selected his students, details their education and experiences while working for him, and breaks down the Turtle system and rules in full. He reveals how they made astounding fortunes, and follows their lives from the original experiment to the present day. Some have grown even wealthier than ever, and include some of today's top hedge fund managers. Equally important are those who passed along their approach to a second generation of Turtles, proving that the Turtles' system truly is reproducible, and that anyone with the discipline and the desire to succeed can do as well as—or even better than—Wall Street's top hedge fund wizards.
In an era full of slapdash investing advice and promises of hot stock tips for "the next big thing," as popularized by pundits like Jim Cramer of Mad Money, the easy-to-follow objective rules of the TurtleTrader stand out as a sound guide for truly making the most out of your money. These rules worked—and still work today—for the Turtles, and any other investor with the desire and commitment to learn from one of the greatest investing stories of all time.
What happens when ordinary people are taught a system to make extraordinary money? Richard Dennis made a fortune on Wall Street by investing according to a few simple rules. Convinced that great trading was a skill that could be taught to anyone, he made a bet with his partner and ran a classified ad in the Wall Street Journal looking for novices to train. His recruits, later known as the Turtles, had anything but traditional Wall Street backgrounds; they included a professional blackjack player, a pianist, and a fantasy game designer. For two weeks, Dennis taught them his investment rules and philosophy, and set them loose to start trading, each with a million dollars of his money. By the time the experiment ended, Dennis had made a hundred million dollars from his Turtles and created one killer Wall Street legend.
In The Complete Turtle Trader, Michael W. Covel, bestselling author of Trend Following and managing editor of TurtleTrader.com, the leading website on the Turtles, tells their riveting story with the first ever on the record interviews with individual Turtles. He describes how Dennis interviewed and selected his students, details their education and experiences while working for him, and breaks down the Turtle system and rules in full. He reveals how they made astounding fortunes, and follows their lives from the original experiment to the present day. Some have grown even wealthier than ever, and include some of today's top hedge fund managers. Equally important are those who passed along their approach to a second generation of Turtles, proving that the Turtles' system truly is reproducible, and that anyone with the discipline and the desire to succeed can do as well as—or even better than—Wall Street's top hedge fund wizards.
In an era full of slapdash investing advice and promises of hot stock tips for "the next big thing," as popularized by pundits like Jim Cramer of Mad Money, the easy-to-follow objective rules of the TurtleTrader stand out as a sound guide for truly making the most out of your money. These rules worked—and still work today—for the Turtles, and any other investor with the desire and commitment to learn from one of the greatest investing stories of all time.
288 pages, Kindle Edition
First published October 1, 2007
878 people are currently reading
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Displaying 1 - 30 of 107 reviews
August 3, 2008
Type 1 error - rejecting something that shoudl have been accepted
type 2 error - accepting something that should have been rejected.
edge = winning % X avg winner + losing 5 X avg loser
1. calculate your edge for every trading decision because you cannot make bets if you do not know your edge. it is not about the frequceny of being correct, but the magnitude.
2. buy rallies - watch high low close. trading decisions shoudl all be based on price.
3. embrace shorting.
S1 - 4 week (20 trading day) price break out for entry. 2 week opposite for exit. filter 1 - if the previous 4 week breakout was a winner, do not enter. however, filter 2 - if the previous trade was a 2N loser, then take the breakout.
S2 - 11 week (55 day) trading system (LT :-)) 4 week break out in opposite for exit.
4. split your money between S1 and S2 and then test your time for each breakout on paper before crystalising the system.
5. trust but verify.
6. do not worry about entry as much as exit
risk management - measure volatility in terms of daliy ranges. N = average true range,
a. hi to low
b. yesterdays close to todays high.
c. yesterdays close to todays close
whichever is highest take as N in absolute - it is distance that counts. N is the distance the market moved up or down in a 24 hour period. can take a 20 day moving avager of N
7. bet 2% of capital per trade.
8. stops are a function of N - all stops are 2N.
9. pyramiding - add positions at each 1N move in your direction. pyramid a max of 5 units. a 2nd added unit brings all units up to new 2nd added units stop.
10. use leverage if you want to make big money.
type 2 error - accepting something that should have been rejected.
edge = winning % X avg winner + losing 5 X avg loser
1. calculate your edge for every trading decision because you cannot make bets if you do not know your edge. it is not about the frequceny of being correct, but the magnitude.
2. buy rallies - watch high low close. trading decisions shoudl all be based on price.
3. embrace shorting.
S1 - 4 week (20 trading day) price break out for entry. 2 week opposite for exit. filter 1 - if the previous 4 week breakout was a winner, do not enter. however, filter 2 - if the previous trade was a 2N loser, then take the breakout.
S2 - 11 week (55 day) trading system (LT :-)) 4 week break out in opposite for exit.
4. split your money between S1 and S2 and then test your time for each breakout on paper before crystalising the system.
5. trust but verify.
6. do not worry about entry as much as exit
risk management - measure volatility in terms of daliy ranges. N = average true range,
a. hi to low
b. yesterdays close to todays high.
c. yesterdays close to todays close
whichever is highest take as N in absolute - it is distance that counts. N is the distance the market moved up or down in a 24 hour period. can take a 20 day moving avager of N
7. bet 2% of capital per trade.
8. stops are a function of N - all stops are 2N.
9. pyramiding - add positions at each 1N move in your direction. pyramid a max of 5 units. a 2nd added unit brings all units up to new 2nd added units stop.
10. use leverage if you want to make big money.
May 26, 2019
There are two qualities that I look for when I read a book like this one. I don't need to have both qualities present; one will do.
First, I want to enjoy an entertaining read; and, on the side, learn something. The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine taught me stuff about financial instruments that I never knew before. And Lewis packaged it nicely in a tale rife with human interest. I didn't place any trades based on what I'd learned, but it was still an entertaining and informative read.
Secondly, there are books I enjoy not because they are entertainingly written, but because they are filled with information that can profit me materially. The Ivy Portfolio: How to Invest Like the Top Endowments and Avoid Bear Markets is a good example of this.
Faber might not be your favorite flavor of investment advice, but surely you have learned valuable strategies from some books that you've read. In the case of Faber's book, there were no character sketches, no scenes filled with drama, just solid, actionable facts.
Virtually alone among the many reviewers of this book, I found The Complete TurtleTader to be both devoid of artful writing, and skimpy on trading advice. Let's examine each point in turn.
The story of the turtles could have been, in the hands of a more talented scribe, a spellbinding narrative filled with a cast of colorful characters. Instead, as I read the book, I could picture Covel laying out a pile of index cards, each with a quotation from one of his interviewees scrawled on it. I could picture him then putting the cards together, trying to get them into some kind of coherent order.
When I go to see a movie, I want to be caught up in the movie. If I find myself thinking about the cinematic decisions the director made, it probably wasn't a good movie. While reading this book, I kept wondering why the editor, presumably a person trained in good writing, didn't do a better job providing some coherence by winnowing out the chaff and fluff.
Much of the book is filled with "he said, she said" petty complaints that were unearthed as Covel interviewed former turtles. Again, in the hands of a more gifted writer, perhaps these could have been crafted into a compelling tale. Apparently, neither Covel nor his editor possess such gifts.
Now, this book does have some information that might profit me. It does lay out a trading system. But this system takes up only a very few pages. A more detailed explanation of the system is available, legally, on the web for free.
So, I did not have the pleasure of enjoying a well-written book. I did learn about a trading system that might prove to be profitable. But it wasn't worth wading through the entire book to get about two minutes of information about this trading system.
Please note, I love reading books that do not provide me with direct financial gain. But the reason I like those books is because there is some riveting story or creative presentation of ideas. This book was not well-written and has a couple of pages of trading advice.
P.S. I purchased the Kindle edition of this book. Unlike many other financial books that should not have been published in Kindle form, this book is quite suitable for electronic distribution. There are a few tables demonstrating the profit performance of various individuals. These tables are easy to view and, anyway, are not essential for following the text.
First, I want to enjoy an entertaining read; and, on the side, learn something. The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine taught me stuff about financial instruments that I never knew before. And Lewis packaged it nicely in a tale rife with human interest. I didn't place any trades based on what I'd learned, but it was still an entertaining and informative read.
Secondly, there are books I enjoy not because they are entertainingly written, but because they are filled with information that can profit me materially. The Ivy Portfolio: How to Invest Like the Top Endowments and Avoid Bear Markets is a good example of this.
Faber might not be your favorite flavor of investment advice, but surely you have learned valuable strategies from some books that you've read. In the case of Faber's book, there were no character sketches, no scenes filled with drama, just solid, actionable facts.
Virtually alone among the many reviewers of this book, I found The Complete TurtleTader to be both devoid of artful writing, and skimpy on trading advice. Let's examine each point in turn.
The story of the turtles could have been, in the hands of a more talented scribe, a spellbinding narrative filled with a cast of colorful characters. Instead, as I read the book, I could picture Covel laying out a pile of index cards, each with a quotation from one of his interviewees scrawled on it. I could picture him then putting the cards together, trying to get them into some kind of coherent order.
When I go to see a movie, I want to be caught up in the movie. If I find myself thinking about the cinematic decisions the director made, it probably wasn't a good movie. While reading this book, I kept wondering why the editor, presumably a person trained in good writing, didn't do a better job providing some coherence by winnowing out the chaff and fluff.
Much of the book is filled with "he said, she said" petty complaints that were unearthed as Covel interviewed former turtles. Again, in the hands of a more gifted writer, perhaps these could have been crafted into a compelling tale. Apparently, neither Covel nor his editor possess such gifts.
Now, this book does have some information that might profit me. It does lay out a trading system. But this system takes up only a very few pages. A more detailed explanation of the system is available, legally, on the web for free.
So, I did not have the pleasure of enjoying a well-written book. I did learn about a trading system that might prove to be profitable. But it wasn't worth wading through the entire book to get about two minutes of information about this trading system.
Please note, I love reading books that do not provide me with direct financial gain. But the reason I like those books is because there is some riveting story or creative presentation of ideas. This book was not well-written and has a couple of pages of trading advice.
P.S. I purchased the Kindle edition of this book. Unlike many other financial books that should not have been published in Kindle form, this book is quite suitable for electronic distribution. There are a few tables demonstrating the profit performance of various individuals. These tables are easy to view and, anyway, are not essential for following the text.
March 5, 2021
Besides the very interesting story of Richard Dennis and the Turtles, the book has many key points:
- once you win some, it's your money, not "the house money"
- without proper risk management, it's a matter of time to get toast
- too much risk is a double edged sword -> on the upside and on the downside
- you have to be contrarian to make money
- if you trade emotions, you're toast
- the market doesn't care about your entry price, nor your exit target
- never revenge trade
- you should adjust your position sizing, based on the volatility and account size
- if you lose 10% of your capital, you should adjust your risk profile as if you've lost 20%
- trend is your friend. Catch it on time and you make a lot of money
- you cannot should not be outside of the market, since only a few weeks in the year make the most gains
There are more gems in the book, but I suggest you find them yourself.
- once you win some, it's your money, not "the house money"
- without proper risk management, it's a matter of time to get toast
- too much risk is a double edged sword -> on the upside and on the downside
- you have to be contrarian to make money
- if you trade emotions, you're toast
- the market doesn't care about your entry price, nor your exit target
- never revenge trade
- you should adjust your position sizing, based on the volatility and account size
- if you lose 10% of your capital, you should adjust your risk profile as if you've lost 20%
- trend is your friend. Catch it on time and you make a lot of money
- you cannot should not be outside of the market, since only a few weeks in the year make the most gains
There are more gems in the book, but I suggest you find them yourself.
July 25, 2020
The legend of the Turtles is still there though its fading from the memory of the traders. Michael Covel tries to put the pieces together and he is partly successful. Things have changed so much in the markets since the time the 'Turtle-training' program was started by Richard Dennis in the 1980s.
The whole turtle-trading thing was a bet on nature vs. nurture between Richard Dennis and his friend William Eckhardt. Dennis was adamant that trading can be taught with proper rules and systems. During the entire duration when the turtle-traders were employed by Dennis, they have an impressive overall track-record in trading. A few became better than their mentors once they got out on their own.
Turtles have never been very forthcoming about what and how they were trained. Some turtles refuse to speak and some like Curtis Faith who have written their own books about turtle-trading are in dispute with this author. I did not learn anything new from this, still it makes for an engrossing read.
The whole turtle-trading thing was a bet on nature vs. nurture between Richard Dennis and his friend William Eckhardt. Dennis was adamant that trading can be taught with proper rules and systems. During the entire duration when the turtle-traders were employed by Dennis, they have an impressive overall track-record in trading. A few became better than their mentors once they got out on their own.
Turtles have never been very forthcoming about what and how they were trained. Some turtles refuse to speak and some like Curtis Faith who have written their own books about turtle-trading are in dispute with this author. I did not learn anything new from this, still it makes for an engrossing read.
October 25, 2021
The 2nd time I've been disappointed by a Covel book (the first was "Trend Following"). The story itself is fine, it's even a compelling story: 2 well-known/noted investors, one an autodidact, the other a former academic that was studying mathematical logic, decide to resolve the philosophic question of nature/nurture through a bet by selecting a random pool of individuals across various jobs/backgrounds/skills and train them their system, then track the performance and see if the performance was comparable, inferior, or superior to professional traders (and more importantly, did the investors net from investing their time/money into this group vs. hiring traditional investing talent). The answer apparently was, yes - it's mostly nurture, and yes - they net tremendously, on the order of 200% for a decade+ of work from various cohorts of the experiment.
For those who want just the story, add 1 star to the rating. For anyone else expecting to get more commentary/analysis of the system and details/explanations on why some people performed and others didn't, and some great detail on how this can possibly augment your own system, this book is a disappointment. From what I remembered of Covel's "Trend Following", he spent 90% of the book talking about trend following, but didn't really go into much detail on the mechanics, except indirectly in a few chapters. This is also true for TurtleTrader, there's 1 or 2 chapters where he does some very simple definitions/arithmetic on the system-side, but it's too shallow to be anything but introductory comments. The rest of the time is dedicated to talking about the sociology of the Turtle traders as a group, which though compelling reading, isn't what I wanted out of the text.
Like Covel's other books, there's a significant amount of run-time that is basically just an episode of a podcast (in this case an interview he did with a turtle Jerry Parker, who became very successful and founded "Cheaspake Capital", a fund that was noted not only for it's performance, but for the fact that it was operated out of Richmond, VA instead of Manhattan.
This is an interesting story, but it's not at all instructional. If that's OK with you, it's a recommend. For everyone else, it's a conditional recommend as a "filler" between more substantive readings.
For those who want just the story, add 1 star to the rating. For anyone else expecting to get more commentary/analysis of the system and details/explanations on why some people performed and others didn't, and some great detail on how this can possibly augment your own system, this book is a disappointment. From what I remembered of Covel's "Trend Following", he spent 90% of the book talking about trend following, but didn't really go into much detail on the mechanics, except indirectly in a few chapters. This is also true for TurtleTrader, there's 1 or 2 chapters where he does some very simple definitions/arithmetic on the system-side, but it's too shallow to be anything but introductory comments. The rest of the time is dedicated to talking about the sociology of the Turtle traders as a group, which though compelling reading, isn't what I wanted out of the text.
Like Covel's other books, there's a significant amount of run-time that is basically just an episode of a podcast (in this case an interview he did with a turtle Jerry Parker, who became very successful and founded "Cheaspake Capital", a fund that was noted not only for it's performance, but for the fact that it was operated out of Richmond, VA instead of Manhattan.
This is an interesting story, but it's not at all instructional. If that's OK with you, it's a recommend. For everyone else, it's a conditional recommend as a "filler" between more substantive readings.
November 8, 2014
This is a pretty good story about Nature vs Nurture put into action. Take the most successful trader in Chicago and give him a group of people from background that range the spectrum. Can he teach them to be successful traders? Or is that something that is inherent? While the story seems to support the nurture argument, what happens after the program is dissolved and the students are out on their own certainly supports nature.
Do not expect in-depth trading strategies from this book. This is a non-fiction story. Not a training manual. That being said, there is a lot to be learned about trading from the book.
Do not expect in-depth trading strategies from this book. This is a non-fiction story. Not a training manual. That being said, there is a lot to be learned about trading from the book.
June 4, 2016
Beyond strategy, success lies in psychology.
October 9, 2022
Interesting story and enjoyable reading
The book tells the story of the students who learned to trade using the trend following method. The book doesn't give you trading advice or methodology but it does provide many lessons regarding the life of traders
The book tells the story of the students who learned to trade using the trend following method. The book doesn't give you trading advice or methodology but it does provide many lessons regarding the life of traders
June 11, 2017
Interesting, but more filler than I wanted. Also his editor was right to cut all the petty stuff at the end that is only in the audiobook.
August 27, 2012
I think very highly of this book overall, and my main grievance is a petty one -- I rather despise the constant "branding" of the word turtle throughout the book. It's a tedious exercise in self-promotion that serves to alienate the reader rather than programme him to buy the next book. One could reduce the number of references to "turtles" by 70% and the book would be much more readable.
The best thing about this method is that one is not required to watch MSNBC, Bloomberg TV or the Report on Business TV show. The book stresses that a trader, using his own money, need only use the price as a guide. This is not a method devoted to fundamentals.
The method seems to apply to a variety of markets, including such diverse securities as Kansas City Wheat Futures, the Dec. 2006 Eurodollar Futures and Japanese Yen futures. We'll see how it holds its own in the spot FX currency market.
The best thing about this method is that one is not required to watch MSNBC, Bloomberg TV or the Report on Business TV show. The book stresses that a trader, using his own money, need only use the price as a guide. This is not a method devoted to fundamentals.
The method seems to apply to a variety of markets, including such diverse securities as Kansas City Wheat Futures, the Dec. 2006 Eurodollar Futures and Japanese Yen futures. We'll see how it holds its own in the spot FX currency market.
April 19, 2011
An easy and enjoyable read about the Turtle Traders -- ordinary folks taught a mechanical way of trading that works -- and how they (mostly) got rich. The book recounts a true-life version of "Trading Places". (This is not a how-to.)
September 30, 2014
A decent account of the turtle trading methodology and VERY detailed background. Actually the methodology is ancillary: the author is passionate about the turtle story (including gossip and internal strife). I don't mean the story does not deserve being told. But the author just dug too deep.
August 14, 2012
i must say i m quite disappointed with this book. Expected a lot more. Thought I could pick up more nuggets. It's just an autobiography of how these 'turtles' as they are called, made it.
June 14, 2014
Good read. Covers both the general idea of trend following and also the human story behind the turtle traders.
November 20, 2014
I'm creating a system of my own and this book gives me the right mindset to work on my system
December 21, 2014
터틀 트레이더 실험에 관한 이야기를 알 수 있다. 소설처럼 편하게 읽을 수 있으나 투자와 관련한 지혜를 얻는 것은 그다지 많지 않은 것 같다.
January 9, 2016
A nice quick read that details how the lives of random average Jo's are changed when a successful trader teaches them his ways.
September 28, 2011
Great story and straightforward intro to sound charting principles... very eye-opening!
July 6, 2024
Was it the system or the mindset that made the Turtles prosper? Where the market is a vast ocean, teeming with opportunities, it is the greatest folly the refusal to evolve the system, not learn from mistakes, yet expecting different results from repeated actions. Richard Dennis, a man who turned turtles into titans, himself succumbed to a fatale fate, fall short of becoming the best trader he could be. He conquered the market, yet failed to conquer his own demons. His original system, while successful, stagnated, devoid of further refinement. It’s a paradox, the teacher who fails to heed his own lessons, who knows the steep price of losses yet falls prey to them. Especially knowing the difficulty of recouping losses of 50% or more.
As traders, we can admire his impressive track record. Yet, it seems irrational how he used immense leverage to achieve triple-digit ROI. His record could have been more impressive had he learned from his students and ventured into a wider variety of markets, rather than focusing mainly on commodities and other futures. The need for huge leverage is questionable when a 25% win rate and 50-100% gains on winning trades, coupled with strict risk-loss management, can yield triple-digit returns within 50 trades in a non-sideways market. One could argue that Dennis's urge to win and greed were too strong when he experienced >70% drawdowns for the year, yet that is also what he brought him like Icarus to the skies.
As students of the market, it is paramount to delve into the annals of past trades, to study the patterns of history, to unravel the subtle intricacies. I never quite grasp why I 'need' to be a good loser. There's no pride in losing money, only wisdom when we decide to learn from the mistakes and improve to be better than before. There isn't just one good trading system or strategy. In fact, give the best system to a bad trader, and they'll still end up losing money. That's why we track our trades in spreadsheets and journals, analyzing hundreds of trades to pinpoint what went wrong. As well as, spending hours looking at different stocks for repeated pattern, to gain a better understanding of what could be improved.
Turtle Traders is a cautionary tale for future traders embarking on their journey, a stark reminder of the importance of risk management. Trading is not merely about finding the right system or strategy. It’s about understanding the markets, mastering the art of price-volume analysis. It’s about psychology, the ability to remain calm under pressure, to make rational decisions in the face of uncertainty. It’s about resilience, the determination to rise after each fall, to learn from each mistake, to become better traders and better individuals.
As traders, we can admire his impressive track record. Yet, it seems irrational how he used immense leverage to achieve triple-digit ROI. His record could have been more impressive had he learned from his students and ventured into a wider variety of markets, rather than focusing mainly on commodities and other futures. The need for huge leverage is questionable when a 25% win rate and 50-100% gains on winning trades, coupled with strict risk-loss management, can yield triple-digit returns within 50 trades in a non-sideways market. One could argue that Dennis's urge to win and greed were too strong when he experienced >70% drawdowns for the year, yet that is also what he brought him like Icarus to the skies.
As students of the market, it is paramount to delve into the annals of past trades, to study the patterns of history, to unravel the subtle intricacies. I never quite grasp why I 'need' to be a good loser. There's no pride in losing money, only wisdom when we decide to learn from the mistakes and improve to be better than before. There isn't just one good trading system or strategy. In fact, give the best system to a bad trader, and they'll still end up losing money. That's why we track our trades in spreadsheets and journals, analyzing hundreds of trades to pinpoint what went wrong. As well as, spending hours looking at different stocks for repeated pattern, to gain a better understanding of what could be improved.
Turtle Traders is a cautionary tale for future traders embarking on their journey, a stark reminder of the importance of risk management. Trading is not merely about finding the right system or strategy. It’s about understanding the markets, mastering the art of price-volume analysis. It’s about psychology, the ability to remain calm under pressure, to make rational decisions in the face of uncertainty. It’s about resilience, the determination to rise after each fall, to learn from each mistake, to become better traders and better individuals.
March 29, 2025
Reading this reminds me a lot of George Soro’s thesis of Reflexivity. In a value investor’s view, the price of any certain securities are dictated by its fundamental value with accounts of margin of safety. Yet, that is not the view of many (if anything, perhaps the majorities of) market participants (since value investors rarely trade, their participation in the market should be rather miniscule). This book’s ideas are nothing new, in fact John Maynard Keynes (as well as Jesse Livermore) have long talked about the trade of “momentum investing” (or the book calls “trend investing”).
My major takeaway? Just like Soro’s thesis, things can happen for the sake of happening. When a security begins its ascend, it could - and often does - continue ascending due to no other reason than it was ascending consistently before. The idea of fundamental analysis grants no merit here, since the market participants simply do not care for it (in this book, the author has emphasized that a turtle investor ought not to care about anything other than price movement. Noises such as market news - or even fundamental analysis - ought not to get involved here). Which means that the said security will get extremely overvalued. On the other hand, when a security begins its descent, if the said descent continues, the security could be overly sold (or shorted) and render it cheaper than it ought to be under the fundamental analysis. Warren Buffett has commented on this phenomenon before: that while he aims to purchase a company whole at a fair price, he often would purchase pieces of the company on the open market due to the fact that the price of it can get silly cheap. In his 2003 shareholder letter, Buffet wrote:
While I’m extremely tempted to draw conclusions from this knowledge, I probably will not. Since the market force is extremely unpredictable, I can never know for certain when an undervalued security will continue its price decline, or vice versa for an overvalued security. In sum, perhaps the best takeaway is that a value investor ought not to overly analyze how other market participants value a company. Chances are, they aren’t valuing them the same way a value investor does. As Li Lu once said:
My major takeaway? Just like Soro’s thesis, things can happen for the sake of happening. When a security begins its ascend, it could - and often does - continue ascending due to no other reason than it was ascending consistently before. The idea of fundamental analysis grants no merit here, since the market participants simply do not care for it (in this book, the author has emphasized that a turtle investor ought not to care about anything other than price movement. Noises such as market news - or even fundamental analysis - ought not to get involved here). Which means that the said security will get extremely overvalued. On the other hand, when a security begins its descent, if the said descent continues, the security could be overly sold (or shorted) and render it cheaper than it ought to be under the fundamental analysis. Warren Buffett has commented on this phenomenon before: that while he aims to purchase a company whole at a fair price, he often would purchase pieces of the company on the open market due to the fact that the price of it can get silly cheap. In his 2003 shareholder letter, Buffet wrote:
Understandably, really outstanding businesses are very seldom offered in their entirety, but small fractions of these gems can be purchased Monday through Friday on Wall Street and, very occasionally, they sell at bargain prices.
While I’m extremely tempted to draw conclusions from this knowledge, I probably will not. Since the market force is extremely unpredictable, I can never know for certain when an undervalued security will continue its price decline, or vice versa for an overvalued security. In sum, perhaps the best takeaway is that a value investor ought not to overly analyze how other market participants value a company. Chances are, they aren’t valuing them the same way a value investor does. As Li Lu once said:
Only a small number of people are value investors, and that is maybe because you are genetically mutated... You don’t get your ideas because people agree with you, but because of evidence, logic, and reason.
May 28, 2017
This is a blow-by-blow, detailed account of one of the greatest financial experiments in the history of trading.
Its great book that details the background, motivations, and thinking of all the key players and supporting players.
I really appreciated how the Covel made key distinctions later in the book on the differences in the results of the turtles during Dennis' supervision and the success after the experiment was halted. Covel described the differences in character traits and mindsets that were ultimately responsible for each participant's destiny both during and after the experiment, as well as Richard Dennis himself.
His breakdown on what makes a successful trader who accumulates enough money to retire and have "just enough" and an entrepreneurial trader who goes on to withstand the crushing blows of the market only to press on and become a titan in the market is inspiring. More than that, it serves as a model for others to follow and emulate.
I don't expect this book to appeal to the mass of readers but if you're part of the special group of traders then you need to have this book in your library an make a serious study of it.
Its great book that details the background, motivations, and thinking of all the key players and supporting players.
I really appreciated how the Covel made key distinctions later in the book on the differences in the results of the turtles during Dennis' supervision and the success after the experiment was halted. Covel described the differences in character traits and mindsets that were ultimately responsible for each participant's destiny both during and after the experiment, as well as Richard Dennis himself.
His breakdown on what makes a successful trader who accumulates enough money to retire and have "just enough" and an entrepreneurial trader who goes on to withstand the crushing blows of the market only to press on and become a titan in the market is inspiring. More than that, it serves as a model for others to follow and emulate.
I don't expect this book to appeal to the mass of readers but if you're part of the special group of traders then you need to have this book in your library an make a serious study of it.
July 15, 2017
The Complete Turtle Trader is not the best writing. But it is a fascinating subject. The book details the true story of an experiment which was designed to determine if outstanding trading success is part of a person's psychology, intellect and character....or a learned set of skills. Fascinating topic....fascinating true life story. Richard Dennis, a legendary trader, hired 20 novices from all walks of life who were interested in beginning a trading career. He trained them for two weeks and then allowed them to begin trading with his money ($1 million each). They were forced to follow a rigid set of rules....not doing so resulted in dismissal. The results were stunning. Yes....some failed. But others were spectacularly successful and went on to incredible trading careers long after their association with Richard Dennis ended. The whole tale is completely engaging. the story had the same feel as Michael Lewis' MoneyBall (although Mr. Lewis is a superior writer). I recommend the book.
October 31, 2024
On the plus side:
+ Covers a very interesting story.
+ Lays out some good advice on trading psychology.
On the negative side:
- Way too much useless fluff, could easily have been cut down by 80 or 90%.
- Not enticing at all to read - fine if you're reading a trading manual, but this book clearly seems to be aiming more than that.
- Very poor analysis - the information gained from the people and the trading system is great, but the conclusions drawn from this go a bit too far. Basically, a lot of unsubstantiated assumptions have to be thrown in to make up for the missing pieces.
- Arrogant about other trading styles - pretty much stating that trend following is the only style that is scientific, systematic, objective, not based on emotions, etc. While most traders/investors claim this about their own style, an independent author should provide a broader perspective.
I listened to the audio book. I didn't enjoy the narration - especially reading tables of numbers out loud! It does include an interview with Jerry Parker at the end though, and that was quite good.
+ Covers a very interesting story.
+ Lays out some good advice on trading psychology.
On the negative side:
- Way too much useless fluff, could easily have been cut down by 80 or 90%.
- Not enticing at all to read - fine if you're reading a trading manual, but this book clearly seems to be aiming more than that.
- Very poor analysis - the information gained from the people and the trading system is great, but the conclusions drawn from this go a bit too far. Basically, a lot of unsubstantiated assumptions have to be thrown in to make up for the missing pieces.
- Arrogant about other trading styles - pretty much stating that trend following is the only style that is scientific, systematic, objective, not based on emotions, etc. While most traders/investors claim this about their own style, an independent author should provide a broader perspective.
I listened to the audio book. I didn't enjoy the narration - especially reading tables of numbers out loud! It does include an interview with Jerry Parker at the end though, and that was quite good.
August 22, 2024
The base concept alone is beyond compelling: a master-of-the-universe-level-wealthy trader sets out to prove a point and trains a class of randoms (admittedly with some at least vaguely relevant backgrounds) to be master traders.
The story is fascinating; what went right, what went wrong. Ultimately the core point of the course was that human nature messes things up and you need to follow the rules, then the macro picture demonstrates it nicely.
As to whether the rules still work, I shall endeavour to find out. For the book itself, my only complaint was that story was often told by or about the turtles or their trainers and I felt I didn't have much affinity to any of them as they weren't fleshed out enough (not that people are the focus here, but it's a contrast to the likes of the The Big Short or similar great finance books).
The story is fascinating; what went right, what went wrong. Ultimately the core point of the course was that human nature messes things up and you need to follow the rules, then the macro picture demonstrates it nicely.
As to whether the rules still work, I shall endeavour to find out. For the book itself, my only complaint was that story was often told by or about the turtles or their trainers and I felt I didn't have much affinity to any of them as they weren't fleshed out enough (not that people are the focus here, but it's a contrast to the likes of the The Big Short or similar great finance books).
February 19, 2020
I enjoyed this story a lot. I listened to the audiobook version which included a rather lengthy interview with Jerry Parker in the appendix. For those of you who were expecting to learn how to become a turtle trader from reading this book, well you obviously weren't paying attention. Michael Covel charges a great deal of money to teach you the rules of price momentum trading so he's certainly not going to give it away in a book you can pick up for less than $20. This is just the story of the turtles. Richard Dennis' experiment in teaching a particular trading discipline to a select group of amateurs. I thought it was a fun and entertaining listen and a fascinating story. But you'll have to look elsewhere if you think you have what it takes to become a turtle. Good job, Michael!
September 2, 2021
Interesting story, and great trading strategies.
Excited to read in the beginning to the mid point.
Tried to Apply turtle trading rules to back test returns for a few stocks over 2 years.
It seemed not to work anymore.
My excitement in the beginning ended up disappointment.
No free lunch. Better to stick to a good plan rather than seemingly magic trading methods that everyone knows.
I know it was a great strategy based on behavior economics in late 1980.
Dennis who invented the turtle trading and shared his IP to others deserved to be praised.
Now that this turtle trading seemed to general knowledge that does not work anymore.
At least, reading this book will not make you a great trader in my opinion.
Excited to read in the beginning to the mid point.
Tried to Apply turtle trading rules to back test returns for a few stocks over 2 years.
It seemed not to work anymore.
My excitement in the beginning ended up disappointment.
No free lunch. Better to stick to a good plan rather than seemingly magic trading methods that everyone knows.
I know it was a great strategy based on behavior economics in late 1980.
Dennis who invented the turtle trading and shared his IP to others deserved to be praised.
Now that this turtle trading seemed to general knowledge that does not work anymore.
At least, reading this book will not make you a great trader in my opinion.
May 1, 2021
The book is written really well. It takes you through the entire journey from start till the end of the experiment. The method used by the traders has been mentioned in just one of the chapter. Hence, people trying to understand the trading rules can just read that chapter and move onto another book. But what I really liked about the book was that the stress was rather on everything other than the trading rules since the rules remained the same for all the turtles whereas most of them ended differently over the course of their lives. This is a good read to remind oneself about what factors, other than trading rules, are actually important for being a successful trader.
May 14, 2020
A beautifully written account of the history of the the Turtle Traders, from the beginning to where they are now.
I really loved his in depth interviews and perspective on what happened during that time - learned
a lot.
The key thing I got out of it was how it captured the way traders think, the mentality for doing systemic trend following trading
I appreciated how the book goes through each story from different perspectives; he must have conducted many interviews to get such a picture of what happened.
I really loved his in depth interviews and perspective on what happened during that time - learned
a lot.
The key thing I got out of it was how it captured the way traders think, the mentality for doing systemic trend following trading
I appreciated how the book goes through each story from different perspectives; he must have conducted many interviews to get such a picture of what happened.
March 26, 2021
gives a view on the turtle trading methodology.
Teaches alot more than that, and I do recommend that it be read through to the end.
There is more to it than mechanical methods, that it also gives you examples of many people on what traits are there that makes this successful.
I do think the book gets a bit too slow in the middle, but hey. I got alot of time and finishing this was worthwile.
it was like, "no it doesnt work" on one side, and "it does, but it depends"
Teaches alot more than that, and I do recommend that it be read through to the end.
There is more to it than mechanical methods, that it also gives you examples of many people on what traits are there that makes this successful.
I do think the book gets a bit too slow in the middle, but hey. I got alot of time and finishing this was worthwile.
it was like, "no it doesnt work" on one side, and "it does, but it depends"
July 27, 2024
Kudos to the author for flagging the section on the actual trading rules, making it easy to skip if you're only interested in the story.
But, having read a lot of amazing narrative history recently I felt that the story didn't flow particularly well and obvious moments where a little more detail would have been interesting were missed.
A little disappointing as parts of the story were quite well told.
But, having read a lot of amazing narrative history recently I felt that the story didn't flow particularly well and obvious moments where a little more detail would have been interesting were missed.
A little disappointing as parts of the story were quite well told.
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