Excerpt from Decision Analysis of Environmental Problems
During the past decade, citizens and their governments have become increasingly aware of the eroding quality of the environment. Along with this increasing awareness, we have witnessed a strong desire voiced by many people to improve their environment. Sure we all prefer better environmental quality to the status quo, but are we willing to forego other benefits, mainly in terms of material development, in order to achieve it? Partly the answer depends on how much better the environmental quality gets and how much material development must be curtailed. But to each individual, the question probably goes a little deeper. An individual is likely concerned about the overall impact of the improved environment and the decreased material development on his or her own quality of life. And so to some extent, quality of the environment can be considered as one of the means for achieving a desired quality of life. An implication is that at least some environmental analyses, especially those done for or by governmental units which attempt to make decisions in the interest of their constituents, must address the inter twined problems of the quality of the environment and the quality of life.
In this paper, I present some of my views on a useful approach toward better understanding of these environmental problems and toward better decision making concerning them. The approach is decision analysis, a field in which I have some expertise. On the other hand, except for a few experiences involving some specific pollution problems, my knowledge of most of today's environmental problems is currently limited to that of a concerned layman. It is from this background that I proceed.
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Ralph L. Keeney received Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He is Research Professor Emeritus of Business Administration, Duke University, and Research Professor Emeritus of Industrial and Systems Engineering, University of Southern California. His areas of expertise are the decision sciences, risk analysis, and systems management. He is an authority on decision analysis, decision making with multiple objectives, and value-focused thinking. During his professional career, Dr. Keeney has consulted on a wide range of decisions including corporate management problems, public policy, environmental problems, and energy decisions.
He has been a consultant for several organizations including Fair Isaac, Seagate Technology, American Express, British Columbia Hydro, Pacific Gas and Electric, BC Gas , Kaiser Permanente, Hewlett-Packard, the Electric Power Research Institute, Greater Vancouver Regional District, Energie Baden-Wuerttemberg AG (Germany), Ministry of Public Works (Mexico), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria), U.S. Department of Energy, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, U.S. Department of Homeland Security, and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.
Professor Keeney's books, which have been translated into numerous languages, include Decisions with Multiple Objectives with Howard Raiffa (1976, 1993), ValueFocused Thinking: A Path to Creative Decisionmaking (1992), and Smart Choices: A Practical Guide to Making Better Decisions, with John S. Hammond and Howard Raiffa (1999). He recently received an honorary doctorate from the University of Waterloo in Canada and is a member of the National Academy of Engineering of the U.S.