What do you think?
Rate this book
Failing States, Collapsing Systems: BioPhysical Triggers of Political Violence
Introduction.- Riot State Failure, or System Failure?.- The How Fossil Fuel Interests Dominate Corporate Media Reporting on Energy and Climate Change.- Failed How the Media's Pro-Fossil Fuel Bias Ruins Energy Journalism.- Oil Depletion as Strategic Threat, MENA.- Oil Depletion as Strategic Threat, Europe.- Oil Depletion as Strategic Threat, Asia.- Oil Depletion as Strategic Threat, Africa.- How US, Britain and Europe are responding to the end of cheap State-militarisation, fossil fuel consolidation.- Disruption from Below - Exponential Renewables.- Disruption from Below - Utility Death Spiral.- Disruption from Below - New Financial Models.- Disruption from Below - Decentralisation of Power.- Disruption from Below - the Open Source Revolution.- Disruption from Below - the Rising Culture.- Conclusions - Paradigm Shift.
118 pages, Paperback
Published December 6, 2016
3 people are currently reading
140 people want to read
About the author
Nafeez Mosaddeq Ahmed
12 books65 followersNafeez Ahmed is an investigative journalist, bestselling author and international security scholar. He is the author of the forthcoming science fiction thriller, ZERO POINT.
Nafeez is an environment writer for The Guardian, the world's third most popular newspaper website, reporting on the geopolitics of interconnected environmental, energy and economic crises via his Earth Insight blog.
Nafeez has also written for the Independent on sunday, The Independent, The Scotsman, Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, Huffington Post, Foreign Policy, Le Monde diplomatique, The New Statesman, and Prospect Magazine, among others.
His journalistic work combines insider information from senior government, intelligence, industry and other sources with interdisciplinary analysis of specialist literature.
Nafeez is co-producer, writer and presenter of the critically-acclaimed documentary feature film, the crisis of civilization (2011), adapted from his non-fiction book, a user’s guide to the crisis of civilization: and how to save it (pluto, macmillan, 2010). The film was endorsed by BAFTA lifetime award-winning filmmaker Nick Broomfield
He is the bestselling author of The War on Freedom: How & Why America was Attacked: September 11, 2001, which won him the Naples Prize, Italy’s most prestigious literary award, in 2003. The War on Freedom (2002), the first book to critique the official narrative of 9/11, was described by Gore Vidal in the London Observer as “the best, most balanced, analysis of 9/11”.
The book is archived in the ‘9/11 commission materials’ special collection at the US National Archives in Washington DC – it was among 99 books made available to each 9/11 commissioner of the national commission on terrorist attacks upon the united states to use during their investigations.
Nafeez’s other books include The London Bombings: An Independent Inquiry (2006), which has been profiled in the Independent on Sunday and Sunday Times; The War on Truth: 9/11, Disinformation and the Anatomy of Terrorism (2005); (2003).
His latest non-fiction book, A User's Guide to the Crisis of Civilization: And How to Save It (2010) is a peer-reviewed academic study of the interconnections between climate change, energy depletion, food scarcity, economic meltdown, terrorism, the police-state, and war.
Nafeez and his writings are cited and reviewed in the New York times (Thomas Friedman), Sunday Times (Bryan Appleyard), Times Higher Educational Supplement, The Guardian (Steven Poole), The Independent (Yasmin Alibhai Brown), The observer (Gore Vidal), Big Issue Magazine, Vanity Fair (Christopher Hitchens), among other publications
Nafeez lives in London with his wife and children, plays guitar, and writes music in his spare time.
Nafeez is an environment writer for The Guardian, the world's third most popular newspaper website, reporting on the geopolitics of interconnected environmental, energy and economic crises via his Earth Insight blog.
Nafeez has also written for the Independent on sunday, The Independent, The Scotsman, Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, Huffington Post, Foreign Policy, Le Monde diplomatique, The New Statesman, and Prospect Magazine, among others.
His journalistic work combines insider information from senior government, intelligence, industry and other sources with interdisciplinary analysis of specialist literature.
Nafeez is co-producer, writer and presenter of the critically-acclaimed documentary feature film, the crisis of civilization (2011), adapted from his non-fiction book, a user’s guide to the crisis of civilization: and how to save it (pluto, macmillan, 2010). The film was endorsed by BAFTA lifetime award-winning filmmaker Nick Broomfield
He is the bestselling author of The War on Freedom: How & Why America was Attacked: September 11, 2001, which won him the Naples Prize, Italy’s most prestigious literary award, in 2003. The War on Freedom (2002), the first book to critique the official narrative of 9/11, was described by Gore Vidal in the London Observer as “the best, most balanced, analysis of 9/11”.
The book is archived in the ‘9/11 commission materials’ special collection at the US National Archives in Washington DC – it was among 99 books made available to each 9/11 commissioner of the national commission on terrorist attacks upon the united states to use during their investigations.
Nafeez’s other books include The London Bombings: An Independent Inquiry (2006), which has been profiled in the Independent on Sunday and Sunday Times; The War on Truth: 9/11, Disinformation and the Anatomy of Terrorism (2005); (2003).
His latest non-fiction book, A User's Guide to the Crisis of Civilization: And How to Save It (2010) is a peer-reviewed academic study of the interconnections between climate change, energy depletion, food scarcity, economic meltdown, terrorism, the police-state, and war.
Nafeez and his writings are cited and reviewed in the New York times (Thomas Friedman), Sunday Times (Bryan Appleyard), Times Higher Educational Supplement, The Guardian (Steven Poole), The Independent (Yasmin Alibhai Brown), The observer (Gore Vidal), Big Issue Magazine, Vanity Fair (Christopher Hitchens), among other publications
Nafeez lives in London with his wife and children, plays guitar, and writes music in his spare time.
Ratings & Reviews
Friends & Following
Create a free account to discover what your friends think of this book!
Community Reviews
Displaying 1 - 6 of 6 reviews
January 15, 2017
Quite catastrophic, but that's 2017 for you! The author has a good amount of free content available online, on sites like Medium and Vice News, which might actually be more useful for envisioning scenarios.
Similar to other good models I've read, the author's general outlook is that Western Europe and the US will hit state collapse around 2030.
Similar to other good models I've read, the author's general outlook is that Western Europe and the US will hit state collapse around 2030.
December 13, 2017
The problem, as Nafeez sees it, is the convergence of three things: “the plateauing of energy production, and the plateauing of economic growth, amidst an inexorable decline in EROI (Energy Return on Investment).” “Declining EROI has weakened the foundations of the global, neoliberal capitalist order.” Each US military intervention increases the chance of a future intervention “by at least 20% and possibly as much as 50%” says a 2013 RAND Corp analysis. Our violence begets violence. The huge increase in CO2 levels is accompanied by huge drops in oceanic PH levels; Ocean acidification was a primary driver in the last extinction event: the Permian-Triassic. There will be a mass exodus of humans leaving lands no longer habitable. Europe will receive huge pressure from climate migrants; “by 2030-2040, vast swathes of the Middle East and North Africa will become uninhabitable due to searing surface temperatures.” The drying of Lake Chad alone currently has led to dislocation of millions of people from their livelihoods, as well as the rise of Boko Harem. Where Boko Harem is strongest, people must live on less than one dollar a day. Yemen and Syria are both post-peak oil countries, and Yemen is one of the most water scarce regions in the world. Yemen imports over 85% of its food, has heavy government corruption, and over half of Yemenis live in poverty. Saudi Arabia gets 70% of its water from desalination plants which are so energy intensive that they use a whopping 50% of the country’s oil consumption.
By 2025, California will be having a groundwater scarcity crisis that, according to Ahmed, will lead to food prices increasing up to 395% after 2020. The solution is lessening food waste and using a mix of solutions – “organic, agroforestry, integrated farming, conservation agriculture, and mixed crop/livestock.” Social science shows that for an idea to become mainstream it needs to involve 10% of the population. Ahmed therefore believes our job is to get 10% of Americans educated about the strongest problems we face, to create “new cultures of collaboration to disseminate research to a wider audience.”
By 2025, California will be having a groundwater scarcity crisis that, according to Ahmed, will lead to food prices increasing up to 395% after 2020. The solution is lessening food waste and using a mix of solutions – “organic, agroforestry, integrated farming, conservation agriculture, and mixed crop/livestock.” Social science shows that for an idea to become mainstream it needs to involve 10% of the population. Ahmed therefore believes our job is to get 10% of Americans educated about the strongest problems we face, to create “new cultures of collaboration to disseminate research to a wider audience.”
November 4, 2017
Disclaimer: I'm still very new to a lot of the subject matter covered in this book, and frankly, am still trying to wrap my head around it. This should not be taken as a summary; rather, key points that have really stuck with me after finishing the book.
"Failing States, Collapsing Systems" is a compelling read about the central role of looming/ongoing crises in energy, climate and food in driving geo- and socio-political disorder. Calling it a "crisis of civilisation", Ahmed's core argument is that the current economic order, which is heavily dependent on fossil fuels, is ultimately unsustainable.
To support this claim, Ahmed draws on a wealth of empirical evidence. He goes to great lengths to demonstrate how the world is essentially at the brink of an energy crisis. Key to this is an analysis of Energy Return On Energy Invested (EROEI), which basically looks at the energy costs of extracting and generating a certain amount of energy. The data that Ahmed presents is that EROEI has been declining since the 1960s, and that the emergence of unconventional oil (e.g. shale) have very little impact on this decline. But energy makes the world go round. With energy generation not growing fast enough to support demand, Ahmed argues, we have attempted to artificially meet such demands - importantly, through greater financialisation of the economy (e.g. use of credit).
This is further reinforced by what Ahmed calls the Global Media-Industrial Complex, whereby mainstream analyses of issues, such as geopolitical conflicts and financial crises, do not provide a sufficiently holistic assessment. In particular, Ahmed argues that such analyses always miss out on important interdependencies with energy demand/supply, climate change and food security. To address this, Ahmed attempts to adopt an analytical approach commensurate to the scale and complexity of the issues at hand - that is, he attempts to recognise the full extent of interlinkages of our social, political and economic systems. He applies this analysis to a wide range of geographical regions, covering the Middle East, Africa, Americas, Europe and Asia (focusing mostly on China & India).
Overall, the book has very refreshing --- although, somewhat depressing --- perspectives. I would however recommend it only if you're deeply interested in the topic, or if you're already somewhat familiar with issues relating to energy. The quality of writing borders on that of academia - that is, it's not very accessible to an average reader. However, if you're able to get past that, it certainly leaves you with plenty to think about.
"Failing States, Collapsing Systems" is a compelling read about the central role of looming/ongoing crises in energy, climate and food in driving geo- and socio-political disorder. Calling it a "crisis of civilisation", Ahmed's core argument is that the current economic order, which is heavily dependent on fossil fuels, is ultimately unsustainable.
To support this claim, Ahmed draws on a wealth of empirical evidence. He goes to great lengths to demonstrate how the world is essentially at the brink of an energy crisis. Key to this is an analysis of Energy Return On Energy Invested (EROEI), which basically looks at the energy costs of extracting and generating a certain amount of energy. The data that Ahmed presents is that EROEI has been declining since the 1960s, and that the emergence of unconventional oil (e.g. shale) have very little impact on this decline. But energy makes the world go round. With energy generation not growing fast enough to support demand, Ahmed argues, we have attempted to artificially meet such demands - importantly, through greater financialisation of the economy (e.g. use of credit).
This is further reinforced by what Ahmed calls the Global Media-Industrial Complex, whereby mainstream analyses of issues, such as geopolitical conflicts and financial crises, do not provide a sufficiently holistic assessment. In particular, Ahmed argues that such analyses always miss out on important interdependencies with energy demand/supply, climate change and food security. To address this, Ahmed attempts to adopt an analytical approach commensurate to the scale and complexity of the issues at hand - that is, he attempts to recognise the full extent of interlinkages of our social, political and economic systems. He applies this analysis to a wide range of geographical regions, covering the Middle East, Africa, Americas, Europe and Asia (focusing mostly on China & India).
Overall, the book has very refreshing --- although, somewhat depressing --- perspectives. I would however recommend it only if you're deeply interested in the topic, or if you're already somewhat familiar with issues relating to energy. The quality of writing borders on that of academia - that is, it's not very accessible to an average reader. However, if you're able to get past that, it certainly leaves you with plenty to think about.
March 21, 2017
I tend to pick up books on oil depletion every few months to see what the current estimates and discussion is. Most of my reading nowadays is more focused on how we can adapt.
I keep in touch with the literature for two reasons, the first being so that i know what is the best current book for passing onto others.
The other reason is to give myself an idea of what sort of timetable do I have in terms of my own plans and strategies.
This book very much fits the second role very well. I think for someone just setting out to understand how countries are collapsing and will in the future, this book is probably a step too far. I think this book probably takes too big of steps to give someone as a primer. I would say it is a good intermediate or advanced book on the topics of collapse and the role of peak resources/climate change, financial instability and resulting political instability.
I feel the timelines for different countries sound plausible. It is a book i will keep spare copies of.
I keep in touch with the literature for two reasons, the first being so that i know what is the best current book for passing onto others.
The other reason is to give myself an idea of what sort of timetable do I have in terms of my own plans and strategies.
This book very much fits the second role very well. I think for someone just setting out to understand how countries are collapsing and will in the future, this book is probably a step too far. I think this book probably takes too big of steps to give someone as a primer. I would say it is a good intermediate or advanced book on the topics of collapse and the role of peak resources/climate change, financial instability and resulting political instability.
I feel the timelines for different countries sound plausible. It is a book i will keep spare copies of.
February 6, 2019
Interessante.
Peak oil con date e grafici fuori dal cospirazionismo.
Pronti al 2030 allora.
Peak oil con date e grafici fuori dal cospirazionismo.
Pronti al 2030 allora.
Read
May 10, 2022another cricketeer playing desert prophet in london. bad times ahead
Displaying 1 - 6 of 6 reviews