Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis

by Richards J. Heuer Jr., Randolph H. Pherson

Richards J. Heuer Jr. and Randolph H. Pherson turn a lifetime of expertise toward formalizing, adapting, and standardizing a set of 50 of the most robust analytic techniques in use in intelligence analysis today. This ready reference showcases current and cutting-edge best practices and represents a significant leap forward in depth, detail, and utility from existing handbooks. Logically organized and richly illustrated, Structured Analytic Techniques makes it easy to navigate, reference, and put the tools to use right away. Each technique is clearly and systematically when to use, value added, the method, potential pitfalls, examples of how it can be used, its relationship to other techniques, and its origins.

THE TECHNIQUES
Getting Started Checklist
Customer Checklist
Issue Redefinition
Chronologies and Timelines
Sorting
Ranking, Scoring, Prioritizing
Matrices
Network Analysis
Mind Maps and Concept Maps
Process Maps and Gantt Charts
Structured Brainstorming
Virtual Brainstorming
Nominal Group Technique
Starbursting
Cross-Impact Matrix
Morphological Analysis
Quadrant Crunching
Basic Scenario Analysis
Alternative Futures Analysis
Multiple Scenario Generation
Indicators
Indicators Validator
Simple Hypothesis
Multiple Hypotheses Generator
Quadrant Hypothesis Generation
Diagnostic Reasoning
Analysis of Competing Hypotheses
Argument Mapping
Deception Detection
Key Assumptions Check
Structured Analogies
Role Playing
Red Hat Analysis
Outside-In Thinking
Policy Outcomes Forecasting Model
Prediction Markets
Premortem Analysis
Structured Self-Critique
What If? Analysis
High Impact/Low Probability Analysis
Devil’s Advocacy
Red Team Analysis
Delphi Method
Adversarial Collaboration
Structured Debate
Complexity Manager
Decision Matrix
Force Field Analysis
Pros-Cons-Faults-and-Fixes
SWOT Analysis

Genres: Nonfiction, Business, Reference, Psychology, Science, Technology

368 pages, Paperback

First published March 24, 2010

About the author

Richards "Dick" J. Heuer, Jr. is a former CIA veteran of 45 years and most known for his work on analysis of competing hypotheses and his book, Psychology of Intelligence Analysis.

Reviews

[Pantaleon Fassbender · Rating 5 out of 5]

Great sourcebook for everyone dealing with uncategorized and messy informtion in complex situations who has to draw conclusions and to provide advice.

[Fileundercommonknowledge Simpson · Rating 5 out of 5]

This book is written by the CIA for intelligence operatives, but is ideal for getting the up-front Business Analysis (that your Big Data implementation is going to solve) right. It is beautifully structured, succinct and clear. There's a pull-out chart that highlights the main areas and the linkages between them: these areas are decomposition and visualisation of the problem; idea generation; evaluation of scenarios and indicators; hypothesis generation and testing; assessment of cause and effect; challenge analysis (i.e. challenging a hypothesis); conflict management between the participants; decision support.

It is easy to design and define effective workshops using this book. Of course the experience necessary to run the workshops successfully is something else.

[C · Rating 4 out of 5]

A useful guide to 55 structured analytic techniques (SATs) for improving your intelligence analysis by removing cognitive biases and identifying alternatives to consider. For each technique, the book describes when to use it, the value added, the method (steps), potential pitfalls, the relationship to other techniques, and the technique's origin. The book is well-written and easy to follow.

I read this because I've seen it recommended for cyber threat intelligence analysts, including by Katie Nickels, Scott J. Roberts, and Andy Piazza.

Introduction and Overview
SATs form a methodology for qualitative analysis of the kinds of uncertainties that analysts deal with.

This book builds on Hueur's Psychology of Intelligence Analysis.

SATs don't always give the correct answer, but they identify alternatives that deserve consideration.

Building a System 2 Taxonomy
System 1 thinking: intuitive, fast, efficient, often unconscious. Often accurate, but common source of cognitive biases and intuitive mistakes. System 2 thinking: analytic, slow, deliberate, conscious. Includes SATs, critical thinking, empirical and quantitative analysis.

Structured analysis externalizes analyst's thinking so it can be reviewed, discussed, critiqued piece by piece.

Choosing the Right Technique
Core SATs
• Structured Brainstorming
• Cross-Impact Matrix
• Key Assumptions Check
• Indicators
• Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH)
• Premortem Analysis and Structured Self-Critique
• What If? Analysis

5 Habits of a Master Thinker
1. Know when to challenge key assumptions.
2. Consider alternative explanations/hypotheses for all events, including deception hypothesis and null hypothesis (that what's being hypothesized isn't true).
3. Look for inconsistent data that provides sufficient justification to quickly discard a hypothesis. ACH is best way.
4. Focus on key drivers that explain what has occurred or may occur.
5. Anticipate customers' needs and understand context of analysis.

SATs can take as little as 1-2 hrs, and save time in long run by avoiding wrong tracks and reducing time for editing and coordination. They also produce higher-quality and more compelling analysis.

Selecting right technique
1. Define project: Decomposition and Visualization (Getting Started Checklist, Customer Checklist, Issue Redefinition, Venn Analysis), Idea Generation

2. Get started (generate list of driving forces, variables, indicators, players, precedents, info sources, questions); organize, rank, score, prioritize list: Decomposition and Visualization, Idea Generation.

3. Examine and make sense of data: Decomposition and Visualization (Chronologies and Timelines, Sorting, Network Analysis, Mind Maps, Concept Maps), Idea Generation (Cross-Impact Matrix).

4. Explain recent event; assess most likely outcome of developing situation: Hypothesis Generation and Testing, Assessment of Cause and Effect, Challenge Analysis.

5. Monitor situation for early warning; avoid surprise: Scenarios and Indicators; Challenge Analysis.

6. Generate and test hypotheses: Hypothesis Generation and Testing, Assessment of Cause and Effect (Key Assumptions Check)

7. Assess possibility of deception: Hypothesis Generation and Testing (Analysis of Competing Hypotheses, Deception Detection), Assessment of Cause and Effect (Key Assumptions Check, Role Playing, Red Hat Analysis).

8. Foresee future: Scenarios and Indicators, Hypothesis Generation and Testing (Analysis of Competing Hypotheses), Assessment of Cause and Effect (Key Assumptions Check, Structured Analogies), Challenge Analysis, Decision Support (Complexity Manager).

9. Challenge your mental model: Challenge Analysis, Idea Generation, Hypothesis Generation and Testing (Diagnostic Reasoning, Analysis of Competing Hypotheses), Assessment of Cause and Effect (Key Assumptions Check).

10. See events from perspective of adversary or others: Assessment of Cause and Effect (Key Assumptions Check, Role Playing, Red Hat Analysis), Challenge Analysis (Red Team Analysis, Delphi Method), Conflict Management, Decision Support (Impact Matrix).

11. Manage conflicting mental models or opinions: Conflict Management, Hypothesis Generation and Testing (Analysis of Competing Hypotheses, Argument Mapping), Assessment of Cause and Effect (Key Assumptions Check).

12. Support manager, planner, policymaker in deciding; draw actionable conclusions: Decision Support, Conflict Management, Hypothesis Generation and Testing (Analysis of Competing Hypotheses).

Decomposition and Visualization
AIMS: Before starting a paper, think through Audience, Issue or intel question, Message, Storyline.

Network Analysis: Review, compile, and interpret data to determine associations between entities, meaning of associations to entities, and degrees and ways in which associations can be strengthened or weakened.

Idea Generation
Structured Brainstorming: Systematic, multistep process with silent brainstorming and sticky notes or wiki, led by facilitator, to identify variables, driving forces, hypotheses, key players/stakeholders, evidence, potential solutions, potential outcomes.

Starbursting: Brainstorm, focusing on generating questions, not ideas or answers. Use who, what, where, when, why, how?

Scenarios and Indicators
Scenarios Analysis: Postulate different scenarios to identify ways situation might develop, to help decide how to exploit opportunities or avoid risks.

Cone of Plausibility: Use key drivers and assumptions to generate range of plausible alternative scenarios, to help imagine various futures and their effects.

Alternative Futures Analysis: Create a 2x2 matrix analyzing 2 driving forces/factors/events, each with 2 extremes, to describe 4 possible outcomes.

Multiple Scenarios Generation: Similar to Alternative Futures Analysis, but use multiple 2x2 matrices to pair every combination of multiple driving forces.

Indicators: Monitor observable actions/conditions/facts/events to track events, spot trends, avoid surprise.

Indicators Validator: Assess whether a given indicator would appear in only 1 scenario/hypothesis, to assess its diagnostic strength (how strongly it points to only 1 scenario/hypothesis and suggests others are unlikely).

Hypothesis Generation and Testing
Hypothesis Generation: Create comprehensive list of mutually exclusive potential explanations/conclusions, to be supported or refuted by observation or experimentation.

Characteristics of good hypotheses
• Written as definite statement, not question.
• Based on observations, knowledge.
• Testable, can be proven wrong.
• Predicts anticipated results clearly.
• Contains a dependent variable (phenomenon being explained) and independent variable (how phenomenon is explained).

Diagnostic Reasoning: Apply hypothesis testing to new development, single new item of info/intel, or reliability of source.

Analysis of Competing Hypotheses
Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH): Identify mutually exclusive hypotheses, systematically evaluate data that are consistent or inconsistent with hypotheses, and reject hypotheses with most data against them until you discover the most likely one.
1. Identify mutually exclusive hypotheses.
2. List relevant info (evidence, assumptions, absence of things one would expect).
3. Create matrix with hypotheses across top and relevant info down left side. Mark intersecting cells as Consistent, Inconsistent, Not Applicable. Mark compelling cells.
4. Review where analysts differ in assessments, and decide if adjustments are needed in ratings.
5. Refine matrix by reconsidering hypotheses (combine, add new).
6. Draw tentative conclusions and relative likelihood of each hypothesis.
7. Consider how dependent conclusions are on a few critical items of info, and consider reinterpreting.
8. Report conclusions and relative likelihood of each hypothesis. State items of info that have most diagnostic value, and how compelling a case they make.
9. Identify milestones or indicators for future observation. Create list of future events or discoveries that would prove validity of your judgment. Create list of indicators that would suggest your judgment is less likely to be right, or that situation has changed. Monitor both lists.

Argument Mapping: Take single conclusion/hypothesis, graphically branch out its reasons, evidence, assumptions to see logical relationship between them.

Deception Detection: Use checklists to determine when to look for deception, discover whether deception is present, and figure out how to avoid being deceived. Checklists: Motive, Opportunity, and Means (MOM), Post Opposition Practices (POP), Manipulability of Sources (MOSES), Evaluation of Evidence (EVE).

Assessment of Cause and Effect
Key Assumptions Check: Systematically identify and question assumptions (preconceptions).

Role Playing: Analysts assume roles of leaders who are subject of analysis, act out their responses to developments.

Red Hat Analysis: Try to perceive threats and opportunities as adversary/competitor sees them. Best done by those with cultural understanding of adversary/competitor.

Outside-In Thinking: Identify global, political, environmental, technological, economic, social, legal forces and trends outside your area of expertise, which could profoundly affect situation.

Challenge Analysis
Premortem Analysis: Imagine yourself looking back from future in which your analysis has proven wrong, and figure out why. This can help identify potential failure before it occurs.

What If? Analysis: Imagine that an event has occurred, consider how events could have led to it, and its consequences.

High Impact/Low Probability Analysis: Imagine a high-impact, low-probability event has occurred, figure out how, and plan ahead for it.

Devil's Advocacy: Make the best possible case against a proposed judgment/plan/decision.

Red Team Analysis: Create team with substantive, cultural, or analytical skills to challenge conventional wisdom about how adversary/competitor thinks.

Decision Support
Decision Trees: Chart a range of options, estimate probability of each, show likely outcomes.

Decision Matrix: List options, criteria for judging them, weights assigned to criteria, and evaluation of extent to which each option satisfies criteria.

SWOT Analysis: List strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats.

Impact Matrix: Identify key actors involved in a decision, their level of interest, impact of decision on them.

Practitioner's Guide to Collaboration
Even a single dissenting opinion makes a group's decisions more nuanced and its decision-making process more rigorous, regardless of whether dissenter is correct.

[Michael Robinson · Rating 3 out of 5]

Well researched and documented book with over 50 analytic techniques. I like the book, but I think there could be more emphasis on analytic techniques that are being introduced by members of the IC that aren't a 3 letter agency. I will say, this book is a great quick reference when deciding what analytic technique to use for a particular topic.

[Rayrumtum · Rating 5 out of 5]

A useful guide for practitioners of analysis to some of the key tools. The title bills it as for intelligence analysts, but I believe it is useful for all types of analysts and thinking professionals.

[Alexander Temerev · Rating 4 out of 5]

A comprehensive collection of structured analysis techniques (some resemble TRIZ techniques, some were genuinely new to me) that are used (or were used, to some degree) in Western intelligence communities. Great reference book.

[Raughley Nuzzi · Rating 4 out of 5]

Though it's written for Intelligence Analysis in particular, this book provides lessons that are relevant to all fields and areas of work or study. It provides over 60 thinking tools that are helpful to prepare, consider, and execute analytical processes and I've already started using them at work (in education).

This will be an excellent reference book to keep close at hand during future professional and academic endeavors and I highly recommend its use in just about any professional setting!

[Bridgette · Rating 3 out of 5]

This was a nonfiction read for work, used to help me with a project I have been placed in charge of. While I don't think this is a book for everyone, it is a good read for those in intelligence analysis. It is full of helpful techniques for not only those new to the field, but also for those who are looking to add more "tools" to their "tool belt."

I have been tasked with creating a training program to teach new intelligence analysts to participate in open-source research. Many of the tools within this book will be helpful for new employees.

[Jimmy · Rating 2 out of 5]

Mostly repetitive, convoluted, confusing, irrelevant and trivial detail. This 300 pages book is less helpful than the 40 pages tradecraft.

Just compare the Key Assumption Check technique. In the 4 steps method of tradecraft, it mentions a thing called analytical line. Which is critical. This book, whereas, just tells you to brainstorm assumptions and spends numerous words on trivial detail like giving cards to group members, deleting invalid assumptions, etc. The questions are poorly formulated and confusing. Looks like a joke compared to tradecraft.

[Jason Harper · Rating 5 out of 5]

This is a great reference for analysts. The book was well researched and broken into sections that make it incredibly easy to brush up on techniques to use at different stages of the analysis lifecycle. I definitely recommend this book to anyone invovled in advising decision makers with limited data.

[Lewis · Rating 5 out of 5]

A staple of the intelligence analyst and a great guidebook that helps document the critical thinking processes we use to analyze problems. I still keep this nearby when I remember a technique I've used to analyze a problem but don't remember the some of the exact steps document.

[Mourine Marango · Rating 4 out of 5]

A great book with different incredible techniques that helps analysts to externalize their thought processes. The advantage is that the techniques are applicable to analysts in all sectors.

[Andrew Thompson · Rating 3 out of 5]

A great handbook to have for intelligence analysts.

[Brenda · Rating 3 out of 5]

A class read, real great and informative though

[Lukasz]

recommendation: [MTI - Alix Pasquet - YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AXYyJ...)

[Billy · Rating 5 out of 5]

Five stars based on the book's organization. It is very easy to read one technique or techiques within a category without having to search. Informative even if you are not an analyst. Great for team or project managers. Also recommend Analysis for Competing Hypotheses by Heuer, which is a great read for analysts / forecasters.

[zet · Rating 4 out of 5]

An essential book for all intelligence analysts. Serves as an "encyclopedia" of structured analytic techniques with coherent, concise descriptions of when to use each technique, its benefits, and disadvantages.

Side note: I find it hilarious how reviews for intelligence analysis books are short. Very fitting!

[Pablo · Rating 5 out of 5]

Excellent book, particularly if you think you might have a practical or professional application for it. Even if that's not the case, there is plenty here to help improve one's thinking. It's very straightforward and not overly theoretical or abstract

[Vincent Paul · Rating 5 out of 5]

Every intelligence analyst should have a copy of this book. It is comprehensive, well illustrated, and gives relatable examples. And for writers like me who want to create intelligence analyst characters, read this book.

[Victor · Rating 5 out of 5]

Essential collection of techniques for rigorous and collaborative analysis.

[Narcis · Rating 4 out of 5]

fine book..