Solving The Price Is Right: How Mathematics Can Improve Your Decisions on and off the Set of America's Celebrated Game Show

by Justin L. Bergner

The Price is Right is television’s longest-running game show. Since its inception in 1956, contestants have won cars, tropical vacations, diamond jewelry, even a live horse, and the hosts’ excited catchphrase “come on down!” has become part of our everyday vernacular. Part of the program’s enduring appeal is the apparent ease of the game, guessing the cash value of certain prizes. But, if that’s the case, then why do so many contestants come away from the show empty-handed? Solving The Price is Right is an in-depth exploration of the underlying probability theory of the popular television program that explores how biases and behavioral pitfalls limit our ability to successfully apply logic and math both on and off the show. With rigorous data and analysis compiled from Seasons 47 and 48 (356 total episodes), investor and math practitioner Justin L. Bergner draws strategic and mathematical insights from all facets of the show, from Contestant’s Row bidding to the Showcase Showdown, and all 77 Pricing Games, using a combination of game theory, probability theory, statistics, and pattern recognition. In each section, Bergner summarizes contestant performance, highlights the biases leading to sub-par outcomes, and shows how outcomes can be improved by executing the right strategies while avoiding cognitive biases. Throughout, Bergner applies the lessons learned to the fields of business, finance, and our real lives, shedding light on themes of reverse psychology, strategic patience, and the importance of establishing what is sufficient for success in our pursuits. The result is a truly unique and meticulously researched book that uses Solving The Price is Right as a lens to examine our own choices – and how to make better ones.

282 pages, Hardcover

First published March 15, 2023

Reviews

[Nicole (NicoleIsBooked) · Rating 3 out of 5]

I watch virtually every episode of The Price Is Right. A book that breaks down the strategies and probabilities that affect the game play on this show seemed to be perfect for me! It largely delivered on its premise. The most interesting parts of the book relied on the patterns derived from observing two full seasons of results of the various pricing games. The author effectively used this data to discover patterns and ways that could improve a contestant’s chance to win.

I was already familiar with some of the tips presented in the book from watching the show regularly, but it was enlightening to see the actual data to back up my previous observations. I liked that the author presented tables breaking down everything from win percentages to average prizes, amounts won, and rankings of all the pricing games based on contestants’ earnings. Having this information up front before diving into the details of each game is helpful to have as a reference point when reading through the strategies.

Possibly the most interesting inclusions in the book for me were the tips that were based on observations rather than math. For example, in some of the car games, there were some digits that rarely (or conversely, almost always) appeared as the fifth number in the price. I liked that the author took the time to explain that these patterns were beyond what could be explained by random chance. These types of patterns do not require any kind of advanced math knowledge and would be easy to remember for contestants to use on the show, or for viewers as they play along.

Many of the conclusions presented are based on probability and statistics. The author presents various formulas and frameworks that he uses to derive conclusions. These breakdowns would be most appreciated by people who have a strong interest and/or understanding of math. They may get lost on others, but they can also be safely skimmed over because there is plenty of narrative to explain the conclusions that goes beyond the formulas.

Other aspects of the book are mixed. There is a summary of every pricing game, which can be appreciated for people unfamiliar with the games but are straightforward enough that anyone who has seen the games at least once or twice will not learn anything new from reading these parts. It may have been better to put these descriptions in an appendix to make them easier to pass by for those readers who are already familiar with the games. The book also contains several examples of various concepts related to the pricing games that apply in real world situations in the worlds of finance, investing, etc. I thought these were great additions that could have been expanded on even more.

There is enough here to intrigue fans of The Price Is Right who also have at least a mild interest in math, probability, statistics, etc. For everyone else, the appeal is limited. The information is presented in a straightforward, dry way which adds to the clarity but does not lead to much excitement among people who are not invested in the subject matter. My rating for this book is indicative of my level of interest in the subject matter, but the rating could easily be one star higher for people who are strongly interested in the mathematical concepts while being big fans of The Price Is Right. Conversely, the rating could be one star lower for people who do not have much of an interest in math and/or the show.

Thanks to NetGalley and Rowman & Littlefield for an ARC of this book.

[AnnieM · Rating 2 out of 5]

I really wanted to like this book given the author's incredible passion and enthusiasm for the topic! He watched over 350 episodes over two seasons to come up with his observations. The Price is Right is the second longest running television series (60 minutes is #1). Bob Barker and Drew Carey have been the two hosts and I grew up watching Bob Barker so am familiar with the show. I should have known this book would be heavy math, probabilities and statistics by reading the subtitle "How Mathematics Can Improve Your Decisions on and Off the Set of America's Celebrated Game Show." As someone who does not love math, and in fact would say I have undiagnosed math phobia - when he started showing the math and tables to explain how different players bid, etc., it lost me. I would say this is a book for those who are comfortable with the math and enjoy game theory and statistics. For those of us who need more of what I will call a "lay person's" guide to game strategy or even understanding cases of random chance, this book is not for you. The reason I am giving it a couple of stars is his incredible passion for the topic! His enthusiasm shines through.

Thank you to Netgalley and Rowman & Littlefield for an ARC and I voluntarily left this review.

[E · Rating 4 out of 5]

An incredible amount of math went into the writing of this book. There are something like 77 different pricing games played on The Price Is Right. And Bergner has calculated the odds of winning each one. He watched hundreds of episodes and recorded data points for each game--how many guesses, how many cards drawn, how many digits revealed, etc. etc. etc. almost ad infinitum. And then he wrote a book that explained the best way to win each game, ways in which the producers try to help the contestants, simple heuristics to remember, and more.

All to what end? I'm not sure. I suppose a potential contestant could try to memorize this book, although, for the number of hours that would take, you'd probably make more per hour driving for Uber or something. And the tips about how, as the subtitle has it, "mathematics can improve your decisions" in everyday life were few and far between. I did appreciate the nuts-and-bolts rundown on each game. (Sometimes Drew Carey does just a poor job of explaining things that this book might be helpful as a literal armchair guide!) But I can't imagine pausing an episode time and time again just to consult the manual. But if you're so inclined . . . this is definitely the book for you.

[Alex Nagler · Rating 3 out of 5]

Have you spent a lot of time analyzing The Price Is Right? Justin Bergner has. And like Ted Slauson (of the Perfect Game documentary), he's spent a lot of time analyzing each and every game, prize, and price involved. Only he's spent the time running the math on absolutely everything.

This is a math heavy book. If you don't want to spend time running through stats, you might want to avoid this book. Otherwise, it's definitely worth a read to look into the stats and strategies behind your favorite pricing games. My thanks to NetGalley for the advanced copy.

[Lisa · Rating 5 out of 5]

Fascinating even for a non-math person. The book puts decision-making and human biases in the relatable context of The Price is Right, and pulls back the curtain on the questions that mystify even longtime viewers. There's an unbelievable amount of detailed analysis around strategy and probability that allows viewers to watch through a whole new lens.

[Meet · Rating 2 out of 5]

Need to be an expert in both Price is Right and Math. Having watched only a couple episodes of the show over the years I couldn't keep track of the games and their rules.

[Scott · Rating 1 out of 5]

"poorly written, just a math text book"

[Jami · Rating 4 out of 5]

A little math-heavy, but makes interesting observations on bidding, the games & showcases.