Lois’s answer to “Just finished Physicians of Vilnoc again. Pen often rids his local area of as many biting insects …” > Likes and Comments
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There has already been some discussion of this. Of course, Penric isn't going to rid the world of bugs. However, it seems to me that his efforts could perhaps have unexpected side-effects locally.
We're still talking about a relatively small impact vis a vis the world at large. Even if Penric automatically killed all flies within a certain range of his existence, the population would fill back in quickly from the fringes. The biggest advantage of fast replicating, short lived species is that their populations can adjust to events like Penric coming and going almost as fast as he can move around. He'd probably buy an area a few days to a week at most before they return. Any side effects would be temporary in nature and therefore of little impact.
I wonder how far the average fly flies in a day… But I really don't know.
Found on the Web: "Studies using marked house flies, showed that 60% to 80% were captured within a mile of their release point. Most of the rest, 85% to 95% of the total, were caught within about 2 miles of the release site within the first 4 days after they were turned loose. A few flies have been shown to travel 5 to 20 miles but these tend to be “record” individuals. In general, fly control efforts for a community problem are focused within one mile of the source."
Yup, so they have a range that basically negates Pen's impact in the long run. Throw in time for a few generations (like over a few weeks) and it's like taking water out of the ocean: you don't need to worry about a bucket let alone a cup when even a swimming pool's worth is a non-event. Cools stats though, 5-20 miles is way farther than I would have ever guessed even for the standouts.
Bear in mind that he may be killing flies every day, and he might stay in one place for months or years. Yes, there would be a more-or-less constant inflow of flies into the area from neighbouring areas; the question really is how many flies does he kill every day, and how does it compare with the number of incoming flies? But these are all unknown quantities.
Yes, but I'll go back to my water from the ocean analogy. He might be able to dry up a beach area but there's an ocean on the outskirts just waiting for him to leave even if he kills thousands. He might have small local impacts in long running (or, more rather standing in his case) locations like slower decomposition rates but he's not a walking eco-disaster. Now a town or even a large family of Pen's would be a problem because they can spread so far but, given the "demon's can't stand each other", it's not a likely fictional problem. Either way, nature is amazingly resilient. I'm reminded by my local wildfires at the moment that many insects die off in large quantities during some "natural disasters" but they always come back; hence the "roaches will still be here when there's nothing left but rocks" meme. I can't imagine Pen's sacrifices being a problem unless he works his way up to larger, slower multiplying animals. Killing all the rats or crows in a 5 mile radius might have long term consequences because they take longer to replace but even they'd come back eventually. Time is only a problem for the singular organism after all, the group marches on implacably as long as there's a reasonable amount of remaining DNA sources for interbreeding, a sufficient food supply, and a place to stay alive long enough to replicate.
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There has already been some discussion of this. Of course, Penric isn't going to rid the world of bugs. However, it seems to me that his efforts could perhaps have unexpected side-effects locally.
We're still talking about a relatively small impact vis a vis the world at large. Even if Penric automatically killed all flies within a certain range of his existence, the population would fill back in quickly from the fringes. The biggest advantage of fast replicating, short lived species is that their populations can adjust to events like Penric coming and going almost as fast as he can move around. He'd probably buy an area a few days to a week at most before they return. Any side effects would be temporary in nature and therefore of little impact.
I wonder how far the average fly flies in a day… But I really don't know.
Found on the Web: "Studies using marked house flies, showed that 60% to 80% were captured within a mile of their release point. Most of the rest, 85% to 95% of the total, were caught within about 2 miles of the release site within the first 4 days after they were turned loose. A few flies have been shown to travel 5 to 20 miles but these tend to be “record” individuals. In general, fly control efforts for a community problem are focused within one mile of the source."
Yup, so they have a range that basically negates Pen's impact in the long run. Throw in time for a few generations (like over a few weeks) and it's like taking water out of the ocean: you don't need to worry about a bucket let alone a cup when even a swimming pool's worth is a non-event. Cools stats though, 5-20 miles is way farther than I would have ever guessed even for the standouts.
Bear in mind that he may be killing flies every day, and he might stay in one place for months or years. Yes, there would be a more-or-less constant inflow of flies into the area from neighbouring areas; the question really is how many flies does he kill every day, and how does it compare with the number of incoming flies? But these are all unknown quantities.
Yes, but I'll go back to my water from the ocean analogy. He might be able to dry up a beach area but there's an ocean on the outskirts just waiting for him to leave even if he kills thousands. He might have small local impacts in long running (or, more rather standing in his case) locations like slower decomposition rates but he's not a walking eco-disaster. Now a town or even a large family of Pen's would be a problem because they can spread so far but, given the "demon's can't stand each other", it's not a likely fictional problem. Either way, nature is amazingly resilient. I'm reminded by my local wildfires at the moment that many insects die off in large quantities during some "natural disasters" but they always come back; hence the "roaches will still be here when there's nothing left but rocks" meme. I can't imagine Pen's sacrifices being a problem unless he works his way up to larger, slower multiplying animals. Killing all the rats or crows in a 5 mile radius might have long term consequences because they take longer to replace but even they'd come back eventually. Time is only a problem for the singular organism after all, the group marches on implacably as long as there's a reasonable amount of remaining DNA sources for interbreeding, a sufficient food supply, and a place to stay alive long enough to replicate.
Little bugs have littler bugs
Upon their backs to bite 'em,
And littler bugs have littler bugs,
And on ad infinitum.
Or - to be blunt - there's a foodchain, and taking anything out of that might not be the wisest available choice.