Brian’s answer to “Brian, what is your prognosis for humanity given the existential threats of overpopulation, ecocide…” > Likes and Comments

Thanks so much for your response. Just a couple of points of clarification. First, by 2050 it is predicted the virtually all NNRs will be exhausted. This includes materials, fossil fuels, and non-metallic minerals. It, therefore, follows logically that we would not be able to construct any renewable energy devices or plants making these also physically implausible. Moreover, other renewable resources such as fertile farmland would be diminished by first, severe shortages of fertilizers and second, by land development for increasing populations and wind and solar farms. In the last analysis, without hard NNRs, it will be utterly impossible to physically sustain the industrial. consumer.military complex beyond 2050 based on extrapolations of NNR reserves and. consumption trends. therefor.

Sources
BLIP https://mahb.stanford.edu/library-ite...

Limits to Growth https://www.chelseagreen.com/product/...

Please have a look at the models and numbers but society as we know it is in dire straights and there is current evidence abound with many countries collapsing due to microcosmic resource /population imbalances - Syria, Lebanon, Venezuala, etc..- that reflect the trend and the inevitable global situation.

Even if the models are optimistically wrong by a decade or two - in the grand theme of things it really won't matter all that much, but the carnage, disease, and famines near the end will be unprecedently horrific.

Thanks so much again Brian for your comments.

Thanks for that. I'm afraid neither link seems to work properly. There certainly are some relatively scarce materials, but I haven't seen good evidence of exhaustion, especially as recycling ramps up. By NNRs do you mean NRRs? I also can't see how fertiliser has the potential to be in short supply when the primary sources are air and water - perhaps you mean some of the other nutrients required for healthy plant growth? I don't claim any expertise in this kind of area - I'd suggest someone like Mike Berners-Lee would have a better overall viewpoint.

Brian sorry about that here are better connections.

https://youtu.be/cdXdaIsfio8 - BLIP

https://youtu.be/kz9wjJjmkmc - Limits to Growth

The acronym NNR stands for Non- Renewable Natural Resources - that includes fossil fuels, metals, and non-metallic minerals. Most fertilizers that exacerbate farm yields to feed our populations trace back to NNRs.

The MIT study from 1972 is seemingly on target with its modeling predictions. Not good. We can simply corroborate both studies by using oil as a proxy calculation for NNRs. There may optimistically be 1.2 trillion bbls in remaining reserves and we are expected to produce/consume about 40 billion bbls on average annually over the next 30 years. That gets us to about 2050.

This is just a back of the envelope calculation to add credence to the models, but even if we are off by 20 -50 years - without NNRs civilization will collapse or destroy itself in resource-based war(s).

The key point being - that nothing can grow infinitely in a finite context. and we are simply playing into the hands of entropy - we cannot manipulate or negotiate these universal laws.

https://youtu.be/bsd1IT7ySfE

Climate change and pandemics due to the ecocide created by the human population and economic growth are thus not the only existential threats we face.

Metaphorically, the space ship Earth is about to run out of gas.