“That story had at its core a discussion of my fundamental view that nothing in life is certain and that, consequently, all decisions are about probabilities

.... A truly probabilistic view of life quickly leads to the recognition that almost all significant issues are enormously complex and demand that one delve into those complexities to identify the relevant considerations and the inevitable trade-offs

....Even the best decisions about intervention are probabilistic and run a real risk of failure, but the failure wouldn’t necessarily make the decision wrong.”