Just finished reading the New York Times bestseller 'The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't' by Nate Silver. The book explores the factors that complicate forecasting across many fields, with a focus on the economy. The book also delves into the subtle things that can be done to make us better predictors. It's superb. I've written a full executive summary of the book here:
http://newbooksinbrief.com/2012/10/15...
Cheers,
Aaron