I just finished reading the book "Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future" by Martin Ford. I was startled by the remark that any job, that a human intern could learn by watching a human do it, is a candidate for being done by a “job robot.” Ford calls these types of jobs "predictable jobs." These include office manager and many other white-collar jobs that one would not expect to be so considered. Many of these jobs leave electronic trails, from phone calls, to database entries, to emails. What is frightening is that soon one will be able to turn a deep-learning AI program loose on a particular job’s electronic trail and the deep-learning program will create a robot for that job without the the need of significant human guidance. As deep-learning programs capable of creating job robots without the need of significant human guidance are perfected, we will approach an inflection point in the number of jobs that humans will loose to robots. My conjecture is that his is going to create all kinds of social upheaval. For example, as the number of job robots proliferate the power of capital over that of labor will explode: when people are under thread of loosing their jobs to robotd they cannot negociate their wages effectively. Thus, capital will get most of the benefits of the productivity improvements that the job robots will bring. That this is already happening has been amply documented by Thomas Piketty’s “Capital in the Twenty-First Century.” To avoid the upheaval governments will have to tax capital so that the people loosing their jobs to the robots do not see their standards of living drop precipitriously and can take retraining opportunities, if these are available. Unfortunately, in my opinion the wealthy in the U.S. is not behaving in an elightened way to avoid the upheavel, but instead focusing on the their short-term interest of reducing their taxes.
I trust the robots and AI much more than I trust the humans. So I am hoping there is an accelerated advancement of the field. Technology has to progress, despite what humans with no (or limited) scientific knowledge believe. Beliefs are for religions. Technology should be limitless.
Many of these jobs leave electronic trails, from phone calls, to database entries, to emails. What is frightening is that soon one will be able to turn a deep-learning AI program loose on a particular job’s electronic trail and the deep-learning program will create a robot for that job without the
the need of significant human guidance. As deep-learning programs capable of creating job robots without the need of significant human guidance are perfected, we will approach an inflection point in the number of jobs that humans will loose to robots.
My conjecture is that his is going to create all kinds of social upheaval. For example, as the number of job robots proliferate the power of capital over that of labor will explode: when people are under thread of loosing their jobs to robotd they cannot negociate their wages effectively. Thus, capital will get most of the benefits of the productivity improvements that the job robots will bring. That this is already happening has been amply documented by Thomas Piketty’s “Capital in the Twenty-First Century.”
To avoid the upheaval governments will have to tax capital so that the people loosing their jobs to the robots do not see their standards of living drop precipitriously and can take retraining opportunities, if these are available. Unfortunately, in my opinion the wealthy in the U.S. is not behaving in an elightened way to avoid the upheavel, but instead focusing on the their short-term interest of reducing their taxes.