The Transition Movement discussion

For comments on chapter 31.

Michael Renner, senior researcher at Worldwatch.

This chapter lays out the ways in which climate change will likely produce, in generally increasing numbers, displacements of populations in various regions of the world.

The opening example focuses on the experience in Syria (and some adjacent areas of Iraq) over the last few years. Syria had the worst drought in 4o years, lasting four years (as of 2010). The ultimate effects of the drought were brought about by a conjunction of factors: not only the drought itself, but the collapse of ancient irrigation systems, the depletion of underground water resources, and overgrazing (leading to desertification). Some 2-3 million people are estimated to have been pushed into extreme poverty as a result, and Syria’s livestock herds (a prime source of both income and wealth for large numbers of rural people were reduced by over 25%. “Sandstorms have become far more common, and vast tent cities of dispossessed farmers and their families have risen up around the larger towns of cities of Syria and Iraq.”

The concluding paragraph of the introduction states:

Syria’s experience suggests that environmental and resource pressures, including climate change, could become an important driver of displacements. And while deep-seated popular discontent over decades of repressive rule surely is a major driver of Syria’s civil war, climate-induced pressures have added fuel to the fire. But this is the important point: the repercussions from environmental degradation do not occur in a void; they interact with a cauldron of pre-existing societal pressures and problems.

I’m at a loss about the author’s use of “could” in that first sentence. Is there really any doubt that “will” would be just as accurate?


CLIMATE IMPACTS

This sections discusses some of the impacts that changing climate will have. These are very well known.

Figure 31-1 is a useful summary. It includes three columns. The first column lists Manifestations and Impacts of Climate Change: slow-onset disasters (drought, highly variable rainfall); sudden-onset disasters (floods, storms, heat waves); sea level rise; glacier melt; “disease burdens”. (This last one is something that is often overlooked. A warming world is already seeing an increasing incidence of “tropical” diseases in parts of the world where previously these diseases were rare or unknown.) One item that could be added to this column is ecosystem degradation and collapse.

The second column is headed Consequences for Livability, and lists reduced habitability; loss of marginal land; lower/fluctuating yields & crop loss; rising food prices; and compromised economic viability. The added entry needed for the ecosystem impact would best be ?????.

The final column lists Adaptation and Coping Strategies: drought-resistant crops; water-use efficiency; economic diversification; local relocation (higher ground, lower-impact areas); and Migration (from seasonal and short term to longer-term and permanent). The coping mechanism for ecosystem collapse would be None.




TO MOVE OR NOT TO MOVE

Several important points are mentioned in this section.

1. Even where reasons to migrate are present, migration does not always occur – many of the most vulnerable lack the means and resources required to move elsewhere.

2. Where climate-induced movements do take place, they can be viewed in two different ways: “as a failure to adapt (that is, a reflection of vulnerability and inadequate resilience, and thus a more refugee-like response) or as a coping strategy”.

3. When people are stuck where they are (nowhere to go, no means to move anyway) they will suffer the adverse impacts of the situation which they cannot escape.


NEW CATEGORIES AND CONTROVERSIES

Box 31-1. The 2012 edition of the World Disasters Report (published by the Red Cross) says that ~73 million people were displaced in 2011.

Of these, “international refugees” numbered more than 16 million (10.4 million refugees under the care of the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees, 5.1 million Palestinians under the care of the U.N. Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East, and almost 1 million asylum seekers.

The rest of the 73 million total is shown as different categories of “displaced” people, but these categories are not explained well. I assume that these ~57 million were “displaced” within their home country, hence not “refugees”. But then one of the categories is “Internally displaced” (26 million). So what of the other two categories (“Development-displaced” and “Disaster-displaced”)? I don’t know. Very poorly explained.

The section itself explores the issues that are already starting to arise by way of classifying displacements of peoples under current international agreements. International law accords recognition to international refugees, but internally displaced persons “receive far fewer protections and sometimes none at all.”

Beyond the category of refugees, “there is no agreed-upon – and, more important, no legally binding – definition of other groups of people on the move.” Table 31-1 shows the definitions of several different categories of “population movement” which have been proposed or used by various organizations. The author states that “For a better understanding of the dynamics and for more-productive discussions about possible policies, it is essential that migration, refugee, and environmental experts engage with each other with an open mind.”

The bottom line is that the spectre of large numbers of environmental refugees (a term that is beginning to be bandied about, without any official agreed upon definition) is looming. In the coming years and decades, how many people are going to be forced from their living places; what status will they have if moving with their own country; what status will they have if they move to another country (and in fact will they even be allowed to); will anyone care about them; will they become pariahs?


RESILIENCE and ADAPTATION

The final section really doesn’t add much to the chapter. We’ve heard a lot about resilience and adaptation elsewhere, and simply stating that these are strategies which require much more attention, in order to attempt as far as possible to keep the number of “environmental refugees” manageable, doesn’t contribute much to the conversation.

I was interested in the fact that in several different articles in the Notes, a “4 degree (C) warmer world” is mentioned.

This is very ominous. Two degrees of warming have been talked about for some time as a limit beyond which we really don’t want to go, though as every year passes, it does seem less and less likely that humanity is going to be able to stop the warming at that level.

Four degrees is probably a limit that would destroy most, if not all, of civilization. Beyond four degrees is too horrible to think about.

There is a book called Six Degrees Mark Lynas which discusses what scientists and their climate models have told us to expect at different levels of warming; one chapter for each degree up to six.

This book appeared in 2007. It would be a useful exercise to check out the articles that Renner mentions which talk about the 4 degree scenario, and compare what they say with what Lynas has in his book.

These footnoted items are the following (appearing in the indicated footnote for chapter 31.):

4. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Analytics, Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4 degree C Warmer World Must Be Avoided (Washington D.C.: World Bank, 2012). http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feat...

10. Actionaid et al., Into Unknown Territory: The Limits to Adaptation and Reality of Loss and Damage from Climate Impacts (Bonn: 2012), p. 7. (Also cited in notes 13, 18, 26)
http://www.actionaid.org/publications...


14. Francois Gemenne, “Climate-Induced Population Displacements in a 4 C+ World,” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, January 2011, p. 188. (Also cited in note 20)
http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.or...

I don't think that people here in Syria believe in climate change, they give prayers and get rain, and that is all.

There was a lot of snow this winter, more than any year before. The Alexa snowstorm was the proof of this chapter.

Well, I would guess that a lot of people that don't have much access to mainstream media would have limited opportunity of learning about climate change.

At least you got some moisture this winter, which is good. However I've heard that it is colder than usual, which is producing a lot of hardship for the displaced people in that part of the world, isn't it?

And Khaleel, thanks immensely for the comment. I was pleasantly surprised (to say the least) to see it.
:)

No, Thanks for your time you're spending here in the group making these discussions. :)