Tournament of Books discussion

official contest thread for shortlists... (and another excuse for spreadsheet work!)
Please post ONLY your predictions in this thread. Contest closes December 31st (so I can capture the predictions before shortlist released).
*List your 15 entries + 3 "play-in" wild-cards. (Since the 16th slot is typically a play-in round of 2-3 books first)
*Points will be attributed firstly based on number correct in the original 16 (1pt per correct selection).
*Correct wild-cards will be worth 0.5pt if in the tourney proper & 2pts if actual play-in books.
*Ties will be broken based on seed weighting. I.e. if you correctly selected a Seed4 (tiny publisher, relatively unknown or unbuzzed book), it will be worth more than selecting the NBA winner correctly.

Prize TBD :)
the running predictions (and my calculations if you want more details) tracked separately HERE

All right, I'm game. Here are my predictions:

All Grown Up
The Animators
American War
Dear Cyborgs
Fever Dream
Her Body and Other Parties
Ill Will
Lincoln in the Bardo
My Favorite Thing Is Monsters, Vol. 1
The One-Eyed Man
Pachinko
Savage Theories
Shadowbahn
Sing, Unburied, Sing
White Tears

And the three books vying for the Wild Card, with the theme being "Quarter-life Crisis"...Goodbye, Vitamin, Chemistry and The Idiot

I'm not sure I like my guesses because this is impossible, but....

The Animators
Changeling
Dark at the Crossing
Dear Cyborg
Fever Dream
Goodbye, Vitamin
Kingdom Cons
The Leavers
Lincoln in the Bardo
Manhattan Beach
Pachinko
Seventh Function of Language
Sing, Unburied, Sing
Void Star
White Tears

Wild Card (Short Story Theme): The Dark Dark, Her Body and Other Stories, Homesick for Another World

btw, you can tweak your original message/predictions up till Dec 31st... thanks to the brave early guessers! And Heather thanks for starting the 'theme-ing' for the play-in round!

Here’s my list with my shaky reasoning.

1. Lincoln in the Bardo – The Booker winner
2. Fever Dream – The translation + the TOB summer winner
3. Sing, Unburied, Sing – The NBA winner
4. The Animators - Female friendship novel + debut
5. The Woman Next Door – The other female friendship novel
+ non-western perspective
6. Autumn – Female heavy weight established novelist
7. The Sparsholt Affair – Male heavy weight established
novelist
8. The Changeling – Friend of the TOB + horror
9. Dear Cyborgs – The outlier + the author is a librarian!
10. Eat Only When You're Hungry – The other outlier + humor
+ road trip
11. Son of a Trickster – The Canadian heavy weight established
novelist
12. Ties – The Italian heavy weight established novelist +
translation
13. Manhattan Beach – Historical Novel + former Pulitzer
winner
14. Exit West – The topical novel
15. White Tears – The speculative fiction
16. Play in Round: Dystopias: All our Wrong Todays vs.
American War vs. The Book of Joan

you are awesome amy!

While I am still trying to figure out much of the shortlist, I think the play in round will be the other two winners from the summer--Ill Will and The Night Ocean.

Amy wrote: "official contest thread for shortlists... (and another excuse for spreadsheet work!)
Please post ONLY your predictions in this thread. Contest closes December 31st (so I can capture the prediction..."

Wow, once you start trying to do this you realize how impossible it is! And do I pick my favorites or the 15 I think the judges will pick? Who can tell?

With the caveat that I am always wrong, here are my stupid predictions, based on god knows what:

The Book of Joan
The Changeling
Exit West
Fever Dream
Goodbye, Vitamin
Her Body and Other Parties
Idaho
Lincoln in the Bardo
Manhattan Beach
My Favorite Thing Is Monsters, Vol. 1
Pachinko
Sing, Unburied, Sing
Son of a Trickster
White Tears
The Woman Next Door

And I'm agreeing with Amanda that the play-in will be between the two other winners from the summer.

Note: there is no way I would ever include a book by Alan Hollinghurst; I LOATHED The Line of Beauty, and then loathed it 10 times as much when it won the Booker its year, against Cloud Atlas, which to me is still the best book of the 2000s. I've never read another book by Hollinghurst -- he may be a perfectly fine novelist, but that book was crap (IMO), and I'm still stewing. Harumph.

Jenny (Reading Envy) wrote: "Amy wrote: "official contest thread for shortlists... (and another excuse for spreadsheet work!)
Please post ONLY your predictions in this thread. Contest closes December 31st (so I can capture th..."

it's a prediction. you win only if your books match the judges'!

Amanda wrote: "While I am still trying to figure out much of the shortlist, I think the play in round will be the other two winners from the summer--Ill Will and The Night Ocean."

I never thought of using the other summer books as the play in round candidates! That would be clever.

Well, here's mine. It's really just a bunch of books I'd like to read and a few that I've read that I want to make the shortlist.

Lincoln in the Bardo
White Tears
The Animators
The Woman Next Door
Stephen Florida
In the Distance
Dear Cyborgs
The Ministry of Utmost Happiness
Son of a Trickster
Idaho
Chemistry
Goodbye, Vitamin
Exit West
The End of Eddy
Augustown

Wild-Card: Past ToB winners fight for a play-in slot
Ali Smith (Autumn) vs Jennifer Egan (Manhattan Beach) vs Samantha Schweblin (Fever Dream)

Amanda wrote: "...I think the play in round will be the other two winners from the summer--Ill Will and The Night Ocean.""

Ruthiella wrote: "I never thought of using the other summer books as the play in round candidates! That would be clever."

I had not considered that possibility either, but now that clever Amanda mentioned it, that seems a likely choice for the play-in round.

The thought occurred to me that the winner of the Summer TOB was chosen by the participants and not the judges. I could also see Fever Dream being in the play in round along with Ill Will and The Night Ocean. The winner was promised to make it to March, but which round was never specified.

I considered putting Fever Dream in my "Past ToB winners" play-in round with Autumn and Manhattan Beach. I may do that still if I find another book I want on the shortlist.

Here's my dart throw...

Lincoln in the Bardo
Exit West
Sing, Unburied, Sing
All Grown Up
The Animators
Goodbye, Vitamin
The Leavers
American War
All Our Wrong Todays
Idaho
In the Distance
Fever Dream
Shadowbahn
The One-Eyed Man
Dear Cyborgs

Short Story Play in Round: The Dark Dark, Her Body and Other Parties, and Homesick for Another World

tie-breaker idea: If it's tied after giving the points as you've laid out at the top. The tied teams will get an extra point for any books that they are the only person to pick correctly. This may encourage more adventurous choices.

I thought of this because they don't release the brackets (or tell us which ones are the play-in books) at the same time as the shortlist. Last year there was about a month gap.

Of course, that gap could be where we have a preliminary score and are waiting to see if we'll get extra points or half-points once the bracket comes out which could create drama.

Jason wrote: "tie-breaker idea: If it's tied after giving the points as you've laid out at the top. The tied teams will get an extra point for any books that they are the only person to pick correctly. This may ..."

oh! I like both of those scenarios. I think in the back of my head I was planning on assigning my own estimates of seeding until the bracket release... but I like the idea of the dark horses making the winners!

My spit-balling.... I'm not eligible but I still wanted to play :)
Sing, Unburied, Sing - because NBA
Fever Dream - Summer TOB winner
Lincoln in the Bardo - Hot Literary Read of the Year
All Our Wrong Tomorrows - Literary genre entry
Manhattan Beach - even though this flies in the face of elimination due to past TOB glory
White Tears - I just keep hearing about it - also relevant social issues
The Animators - fresh debut voice
The Secret Books - cause we have to have a quirky entry right?
Ties - foreign domestic drama (heehe)
The Leavers - relevant social topic
Augustown - fresh voice, genre-bending
Autumn - it's Ali Smith's turn
The Book of Joan - militant feminist entry - zeitgeisty
Kingdom Cons - translated quirk
In the Distance - unique 'great American' novel

Play in round: genre-bending refugee and immigrant stories - Exit West, Temporary People & American War

Amy wrote: " I'm not eligible but I still wanted to play :)"

Are you on the ToB selection committee or something? why are you not eligible?

Amy wrote: "Autumn - it's Ali Smith's turn"

She won the ToB before. it's Ali Smith's turn... again.

I'm calculating the winners... so I could do something devious like change all my guesses when the Shortlist comes through! It's ok, I'm one of those people who feels competitive even when I can't win!
Dang! I was thinking she had won but I only went back through the last ~8yrs of brackets. (and here's where I admit I haven't yet read The Accidental!)

That was my first big ToB disappointment. I so wanted irreverent Lipsyte to win the irreverent book award.

Jason wrote: "That was my first big ToB disappointment. I so wanted irreverent Lipsyte to win the irreverent book award."

I blame Dale Peck! If not for his "both books suck, and I won't choose either one" debacle, which led to the coin flip that advanced The Accidental over Saturday, Lipsyte likely would have taken the rooster. How's that for a run-on sentence?!

Jason wrote: "tie-breaker idea: If it's tied after giving the points as you've laid out at the top. The tied teams will get an extra point for any books that they are the only person to pick correctly. This may ..."

ok because it's Friday and I have better things to do, I added the 'winner by unique selection' calculations to the sheet.

My predictions: Reordered, sorry!
1. Lincoln in the Bardo
2. Fever Dream
3. Sing, Unburied, Sing
4. Pachinko
5. The Seventh Function of Language
6. The Animators
7. Ill Will
8. American War
9. Idaho
10. The Changeling
11. Dear Cyborgs
12. White Tears
13. Grief Cottage
14. Shadowbahn
15. Celine
Wildcard: Huck Out West, Stephen Florida, In the Distance. Gritty coming of age

1. Sing Unburied Sing
2. Fever Dream
3. The Animators
4. All Grown Up
5. Idaho
6. Exit West
7. Stephen Florida
8. Shadowbahn
9. White Tears
10. The Dark Dark
11. Augusttown
12. Grief Cottage
13. A Kind of Freedom
14. A Natural
15. The Woman Next Door


Play In:
All Our Wrongs Today
The Book of Joan

1.Sing, Unburied, Sing
2. Fever Dream
3. Lincoln in the Bardo
4. Shadowbahn
5. The Animators
6. One of the boys
7. Release
8. Idaho
9. Dear Cyborgs
10. In the Distance
11. Marlena
12. White Tears
13. Augustown
14. Chemistry
15. The Book of Joan

Canadian play in: Son of a Trickster; Lonely Hearts Hotel, Six degrees of freedom

I've just finished "Sing, Unburied, Sing". It was absolutely wonderful and I gave it 5 stars. Very unusual for me to give 5 stars.

I am loving reading the shortlist choices - and especially find the Play in round choices intriguing. They all make so much sense to me. :)

I reordered, Message 26. Sorry!

Kathy wrote: "I reordered, Message 26. Sorry!"

I'm not taking order of the first 15 into account :) just extra points for getting play-ins vs main 15 correct & extra points for picking a book no one else picked that IS in any of the 17-18 books of the final shortlist. but thanks for the notification... that's probably the best way to catch my attention!

Cordelia wrote: "I've just finished "Sing, Unburied, Sing". It was absolutely wonderful and I gave it 5 stars. Very unusual for me to give 5 stars."

I loved it too....I felt like I was reading Toni Morrison.

Amy wrote: "but thanks for the notification... that's probably the best way to catch my attention! ..."

Should we notify you if we change our picks? (I'm going to be doing that for sure)

Jason wrote: "Amy wrote: "but thanks for the notification... that's probably the best way to catch my attention! ..."

Should we notify you if we change our picks? (I'm going to be doing that for sure)"

yes, please do! I'll check 'em again at the end of the month but I might miss something!

I love reading these lists. Here are my first 15:


The Animators
Augustown
The Idiot
Dear Cyborgs
Exit West
Fever Dream
Grief Cottage
Isadora
A Kind of Freedom
Lincoln in the Bardo
Pachinko
Shadowbahn
Sing, Unburied, Sing
In the Distance
White Tears

And for my guess at the play in round, I'm going with a theme of near-future dystopia:

Void Star
American War
The Book of Joan

i'm crap at this. i've tried for days and i; can't; do; it.

but here's my play-in prediction: FLORIDA! (don't ask me to name the books cuz i already told you i can't).

also, amy gets to play. like, for sure. no doubt. she plays.

My guesses... though I'm probably extremely wrong.

Fever Dream
Lincoln in the Bardo
Sing Unburied Sing
Exit West
White Tears
The Animators
American War
The Idiot
The Ministry of Utmost Happiness
The One Eyed Man
So Much Blue
Universal Harvester
The Locals
Chemistry
The Seventh Function of Language

Summer judge play in round:
The Changeling
Isadora
Goodbye Vitamin

C wrote: "My guesses... though I'm probably extremely wrong.

Fever Dream
Lincoln in the Bardo
Sing Unburied Sing
Exit West
White Tears
The Animators
American War
The Idiot
The Ministry of Utmost Happiness
T..."

I've had almost the same thought about the Summer judges. If they are not in the play in round, I think all three will make the shortlist or none of them.

Amy, I've edited my picks (message 12), but it may not be the last time.

Amanda wrote: "C wrote: "My guesses... though I'm probably extremely wrong.

Fever Dream
Lincoln in the Bardo
Sing Unburied Sing
Exit West
White Tears
The Animators
American War
The Idiot
The Ministry of Utmost H..."

Yeah, that is what I think about the books of the summer judges: they'll have to include either all of them or none of them. Also, I was wondering about Jeff Vandermeer's Borne not being included on the long list. I noticed his Millions Year in Reading list actually had a few of the long list books on it (and I usually expect to see the books he likes as way weirder.) So maybe he is behind the scenes at the ToB this year?

C wrote: "My guesses...
...Summer judge play in round:
The Changeling
Isadora
Goodbye Vitamin
That seems so obvious now that you say it! (to change my guesses or not!?)

Jason wrote: "Amy, I've edited my picks (message 12), but it may not be the last time."

got it! - fun to guess at the reasoning behind the changes. I'm still not betting on Son of a Trickster unless it's actually in print somewhere in the US by January. But I want it on the list!

Amy wrote: "C wrote: "My guesses...
...Summer judge play in round:
The Changeling
Isadora
Goodbye Vitamin
That seems so obvious now that you say it! (to change my guesses or not!?)"

I thought it would be obvious to include the summer judges too but I'm probably wrong in what might actually happen... can't wait to find out! I'm reading Ready Player One at the moment while accumulating books that probably won't make the short list.

Fun! I should probably be disqualified since I have a massive conflict of interest (disclosed below) but will plow on regardless:

1. All Grown Up
2. The Book of Joan
3. The Changeling
4. The Dark Dark
5. Eat Only When You're Hungry
6. Exit West
7. Fever Dream
8. Her Body and Other Parties
9. Ill Will
10. Isadora
11. Lincoln in the Bardo
12. The One-Eyed Man
13. Savage Theories (which I translated, hence my immediate and well-earned disqualification--but it's a really good book!)
14. Sing, Unburied, Sing
15. White Tears

Three play-in wild cards: Kingdom Cons, Autumn, Homesick for Another World

Roy wrote: "Fun! I should probably be disqualified since I have a massive conflict of interest (disclosed below) ....."

meh - if you were a judge this year or involved in the tourney, I would agree with your conflict of interest but having an attachment to a book shouldn't preclude you from guessing whether said book will make the shortlist!
Welcome meanwhile! we love having authors and translators join the threads!

Thanks! And I guess you're right--if anything, my attachment will cloud my judgment, which was already iffy.

Here we go:

1. Lincoln In The Bardo
2. Pachinko
3. Augustown
4. In The Distance
5. Autumn
6. All Our Wrong Todays
7. Dark At The Crossing
8. Chasing The King Of Hearts
9. White Tears
10. Sing, Unburied, Sing
11. Exit West
12. The Book Of Joan
13. Fever Dream
14. American War
15. My Favorite Thing Is Monsters, Volume 1

16. Play-In Round (the haunted pasts of men):

The End Of Eddy
So Much Blue
The Sparsholt Affair

David wrote: "16. Play-In Round (the haunted pasts of men):

The End Of Eddy
So Much Blue
The Sparsholt Affair "

Nice! I really am enjoying people's play-in round categories!

Augustown
Autumn
Exit West
Fever Dream
Goodbye, Vitamin
In the Distance
Lincoln in the Bardo
The Ministry of Utmost Happiness
Pachinko
Refuge
A Separation
Sing Unburied Sing
So Much Blue
Son of a Trickster
Stephen Florida
White Tears

Hey @poingu - did you want to call out play-ins or are you betting on the final bracket?