The Mookse and the Gripes discussion

This topic is the place for you to second guess this year's Booker judges' shortlist choices.

Unlike the dynamic rankings, we want you to predict what the judges are most likely to select rather than which of the books you liked most.

Thanks for the suggestion Tom. We will close the thread just before the shortlist announcement next Tuesday morning.

If we get a reasonable number of responses, I will compile the results into a league table and post that here too. We can also compare the predictions with the actual shortlist and see who came closest.

So if you can post your six books (ordered from 1 to 6 with 1 most likely), we'll take it from there.

My adjusted weightings method (this table is sorted by number of nominations, using the Adjusted weighting as a tie-breaker):

Pos     Book     Average, Adjusted, Count, First Places, STD
1     Girl, Woman, Other by Bernardine Evaristo   2.73, 4.33, 26, 8, 2.63
2     Lost Children Archive by Valeria Luiselli   3.39, 5.76, 23, 2, 2.88
3     The Man Who Saw Everything by Deborah Levy   3.74, 6.52, 23, 1, 3.15
4     The Testaments by Margaret Atwood   1.91, 2.55, 22, 13, 1.87
5     Lanny by Max Porter   3.23, 5.41, 22, 3, 2.73
6     Ducks, Newburyport by Lucy Ellmann   3.50, 6.00, 22, 2, 2.81
~~
7     10 Minutes, 38 Seconds in this Strange World by Elif Shafak   4.38, 7.92, 13, 0, 2.89
8     An Orchestra of Minorities by Chigozie Obioma   5.11, 9.49, 9, 0, 2.77
9     Quichotte by Salman Rushdie   5.14, 9.56, 7, 0, 2.50
10     Night Boat to Tangier by Kevin Barry   4.80, 8.82, 5, 1, 2.15
11     The Wall by John Lanchester   5.75, 10.88, 4, 0, 2.15
12     Frankissstein by Jeanette Winterson   4.50, 8.17, 2, 0, 1.24
13     My Sister, the Serial Killer by Oyinkan Braithwaite   5.00, 9.25, 2, 0, 1.34

Paul-style aggregate of comparisons (sorted by Count, then Relative ranking)

Pos     Book     Average, Relative ranking, Count, First Places
1     Girl, Woman, Other by Bernardine Evaristo   2.73, 40, 26, 8
2     Lost Children Archive by Valeria Luiselli   3.39, 5, 23, 2
3     The Man Who Saw Everything by Deborah Levy   3.74, -11, 23, 1
4     The Testaments by Margaret Atwood   1.91, 70, 22, 13
5     Lanny by Max Porter   3.23, 12, 22, 3
6     Ducks, Newburyport by Lucy Ellmann   3.50, 0, 22, 2
~~
7     10 Minutes, 38 Seconds in this Strange World by Elif Shafak   4.38, -23, 13, 0
8     An Orchestra of Minorities by Chigozie Obioma   5.11, -29, 9, 0
9     Quichotte by Salman Rushdie   5.14, -23, 7, 0
10     Night Boat to Tangier by Kevin Barry   4.80, -13, 5, 1
11     The Wall by John Lanchester   5.75, -18, 4, 0
12     Frankissstein by Jeanette Winterson   4.50, -4, 2, 0
13     My Sister, the Serial Killer by Oyinkan Braithwaite   5.00, -6, 2, 0

Note that the two tables will be effectively the same as long as everyone picks six books.

Another approach that may suit this list better is the Olympic medal table approach (number of 1st places, then 2nd, 3rd etc):

Pos     Book     1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th
1     The Testaments by Margaret Atwood   13, 5, 1, 1, 0, 2
2     Girl, Woman, Other by Bernardine Evaristo   8, 5, 6, 3, 1, 3
3     Lanny by Max Porter   3, 5, 5, 4, 3, 2
4     Lost Children Archive by Valeria Luiselli   2, 6, 4, 5, 4, 2
5     Ducks, Newburyport by Lucy Ellmann   2, 3, 4, 9, 3, 1
6     The Man Who Saw Everything by Deborah Levy   1, 4, 7, 2, 6, 3
~~
7     Night Boat to Tangier by Kevin Barry   1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 3
8     10 Minutes, 38 Seconds in this Strange World by Elif Shafak   0, 2, 2, 1, 5, 3
9     Frankissstein by Jeanette Winterson   0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1
10     An Orchestra of Minorities by Chigozie Obioma   0, 0, 0, 2, 4, 3
11     Quichotte by Salman Rushdie   0, 0, 0, 2, 2, 3
12     My Sister, the Serial Killer by Oyinkan Braithwaite   0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1
13     The Wall by John Lanchester   0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 3

Nobody got all six right - congratulations to Paul for being the only one with five. Another 11 of us got 4.

My list (I reserve the right to change my mind):


1 The Testaments
2 Lanny
3 Girl, Woman, Other
4 Ducks, Newburyport
5 10 Minutes, 38 Seconds in this Strange World
6 The Man who Saw Everything

1. The Testaments*
2. Girl Woman Other
3. 10 Minutes 38 Seconds
4. Lanny
5. Quichotte*
6. The Wall

* unread.

1. Lanny
2. 10 Minutes 38 Seconds in This Strange World
3. Lost Children Archive
4. The Man Who Saw Everything
5. Girl, Woman, Other
6. Quichotte

Subject to change

1 The Testaments
2 Lanny
3 Lost Children Archive
4 Girl, Woman, Other
5 Ducks, Newburyport
6 The Man Who Saw Everything

1 The Testaments
2 Girl, Woman, Other
3 Lanny
4 Lost Children Archive
5 The Man Who Saw Everything
6 10 Minutes, 38 Seconds In This Strange World

1. Lanny
2. The Man Who Saw Everything
3. Lost Children Archive
4. Ducks, Newburyport
5. An Orchestra of Minorties
6. 10 Minutes 38 Seconds in This Strange World

Here are my semi-informed guesses:

1 The Testaments
2 Lost Children Archive
3 Lanny
4 The Man Who Saw Everything
5. Ducks, Newburyport
6. Quichotte

1. Girl, Women, Other (the winner)
2. The Testaments (inevitably)
3. Ducks Newburyport (unfortunately)
4. Lost Children Archive (hopefully)
5. 10 Minutes 38 Seconds in this Strange World
6. Orchestra of Minorities

1. The Testaments
2. Girl, Woman, Other
3. The Man Who Saw Everything
4. Ducks, Newburyport
5. An Orchestra of Minorities
6. Night Boat to Tangier

 
 
1. Girl, Woman, Other
2. Lost Children Archive
3. The Man Who Saw Everything
4. 10 Minutes, 38 Seconds
5. An Orchestra of Minorities
6. Lanny

1. The Testaments
2. The Man Who Saw Everything
3. Girl, Woman, Other
4. Ducks, Newburyport (I’m NOT rereading it if it is)
5. Lost Children Archive
6. My Sister the Serial Killer

Here is my list.

1. The Testaments
2. Lost Children Archive
3. Ducks, Newburyport
4. Lanny
5. Quichotte
6. The Man Who Saw Everything

1. Lost Children Archive
2. The Testaments
3. Girl, Woman, Other
4. Ducks, Newburyport
5. Lanny
6. An Orchestra of Minorities

1. Ducks, Newburyport
2. The man who saw everything
3. Girl woman other
4. Lanny
5 Lost children archive
6. Quichotte

My predictions
1. The Testaments
2. Girl, Woman, Other
3. The Man Who Saw Everything
4. Lanny
5. Lost Children Archive
6. Frankissstein

I predict:

1. Ducks, Newburyport
2. The Testamnents
3. Lanny
4. Girl, Woman, Other
5. The Man Who Saw Everything
6. Lost Children Archive

I'm tempted to just do the exact opposite of my list, but here goes:

1 The Testaments by Margaret Atwood
2 Girl, Woman, Other by Bernardine Evaristo
3 Lost Children Archive by Valeria Luiselli
4 An Orchestra of Minorities by Chigozie Obioma
5 The Man Who Saw Everything by Deborah Levy
6 Ducks, Newburyport by Lucy Ellmann

I put Obioma in there b/c I have a hard time seeing them leaving out both pf the other Black authors. I'm very tempted to include Kevin Barry b/c the Irish are always saying how they get ignored by the Booker, and leaving out so many men also feels weird, so clearly I'm not psychic.

Predictions for shortlist. It is not my hoped for short list.

1. The Testaments
2. Lost Children Archive
3. Girl, Women, Other
4. My Sister, the Serial Killer
5. The Man Who Saw Everything
6. Night Boat to Tangier

I am hopeless at predicting shortlists so I'm not going to, but I think a simple total is better than a ranking for this exercise.

1. Lost Children Archive
2. The Testaments
3. The Man Who Saw Everything
4. Ducks, Newburyport
5. Lanny
6. Girl, Woman, Other

Note: For some reason, #5 (Lanny) showed up as a blank when I viewed it on my iPhone. However, it looked fine on my PC. Just to be safe, I typed it in again. However, if it still appears as a blank, please let me know.

1. Lanny
2. Ducks, Newburyport
3. Girl, Women, Other
4. Quichotte
5. 10 Minutes, 38 Seconds in this Strange World
6. Lost Children Archive

1. Girl, Woman, Other
2. 10 Minutes, 38 Seconds in this Strange World
3. The Man Who Saw Everything
4. Ducks, Newburyport
5. Lanny
6. The Testaments

1. Girl, Woman, Other
2. The Man Who Saw Everything
3. Frankissstein
4. Lost Children Archive
5. Ducks, Newburyport
6. 10 Minute, 38 seconds in this Strange World

Here are my predictions:

1. The Testaments
2. Ducks, Newburyport
3. Lanny
4. Girl, Woman, Other
5. 10 Minutes, 38 Seconds in this Strange World
6. The Wall

Any of the three books I have not read could be on the shortlist, but I am reluctant to include them without reading them, so I will give a shortlist of four for now.
1) Girl, Woman, Other
2) Lanny
3) Ducks, Newburyport
4) Lost Children Archive

If this messes up your stats and I don't get hold of the other books in time:
5) The Man who saw Everything
6) The Testaments

1. Girl, Woman, Other
2. Lanny
3. The Man Who Saw Everything
4. Ducks, Newburyport
5. 10 Minutes, 38 Seconds In This Strange World
6. Night Boat To Tangier

Do we expect the shortlist to be announced at midnight? That would be in a few hours :)

Here is what I would love to see on the list (not a ranking):

- The Man who saw Everything
- Lanny
- Lost Children Archive
- Night Boat to Tangier (that would be a nice surprise)
- Girl (I almost wrote Gurl), Woman, Other
- The Testaments (although it does not need that kind of attention)

Unpopular opinion: I hope Ducks, Newburyport won't be ducking around :).

Gumble's Yard wrote: "No from 10am tomorrow . I will delete this in a bit to keep the thread clear of all but rankings."
I will also close this for new comments at 10am tomorrow (I can't stop people editing after that, but I won't be updating the tables). I have also added a third league table!

Thanks for all your stats work, Hugh. Interesting stuff!

1 The Man Who Saw Everything
2. Lost Children Archive
3. Ducks, Newburyport (haven’t read it, but I fear it – This years Solar Bones?)
4. The Testaments (I think either this or the Rushdie will make the shortlist)
5. The Wall (controversial, I know, but I think it hit some big themes really well)
6. Girl, Woman Other (have only started it, but everybody else is raving)


Our blog's rankings and predictions

https://thereadersroom.org/2019/09/01...

Thank you, Hugh. I don’t understand how you do what you do, but I appreciate that you do it.

Expect to see Lanny, Orchestra of Minorities, and Ducks on the shortlist (soon!) - having only read those and My Sister the Serial Killer, The Wall, and The Lost Children Archive that is all I can predict for now.

1. Girl, Woman, Other
2. Ducks, Newburyport
3. The Testaments
4. An Orchestra of Minorities
5. Lost Children Archive
6. Lanny

While I've finished only 7 of the nominees (and am well on my way through my 8th) here is my the shortlist I expect to see announced tomorrow:

1. Girl, Woman, Other
2. The Testaments
3. Lanny
4. Ducks, Newburyport
5. The Man Who Saw Everything
6. An Orchestra of Minorities

That sixth spot was extremely tough to settle on.

Dylan wrote: "While I've finished only 7 of the nominees (and am well on my way through my 8th) here is my the shortlist I expect to see announced tomorrow:

1. Girl, Woman, Other
2. The Testaments
3. Lanny
4. D..."

I choose these too, replacing Lanny with Night Boat to Tangier.

1 Night Boat To Tangier
2 Lanny
3 The Man Who Saw Everything
4 Lost Children Archive
5 An Orchestra of Minorities
6 The Wall

not my personal choice, just a wild guess.