Hugo & Nebula Awards: Best Novels discussion

Just like with Nebula, we can guess which books end up in Hugo nomination lists. Once again, members are allowed to post up to six novels that can be nominees. The person, who correctly predicts the most will win

Deadline is in mid-April or so when the list will be out.

This is not a list of what we nominate, but a guess, who'll be there

My list for novels that will be shortlisted
The City We Became
Piranesi
Harrow the Ninth
Network Effect
The House in the Cerulean Sea
Mexican Gothic

Those are pretty much my guesses too. 😛

^^' If this would be the list, I think I wouldn't bother with reading all the nominees and just vote for "Piranesi" ^^'.

I would feel torn between the top three...

Oleksandr wrote: "My list for novels that will be shortlisted
The City We Became
Piranesi
Harrow the Ninth
Network Effect
[book:The House in the Cerule..."

Yup. Of those, Piranesi would be strong getting my vote, too.

(Not having read all...)

Gabi wrote: "^^' If this would be the list, I think I wouldn't bother with reading all the nominees and just vote for "Piranesi" ^^'."

Network Effect was quite good, even if I liked it less than the earlier set of novellas.

And all of them are talented works, it is just me and my tastes that prefer anything by Adrian Tchaikovsky to any of them :)

@Oleksandr: that may well be, but half of the authors weren't to my taste with earlier works so I would not read more of them if I didn't have to (well, I have to give the murder bot series a second chance one of these days, but I couldn't get into the hype with the first novella).
I guess my taste just more and more doesn't follow the general line which is okay, but makes me rather useless when it comes to awards.

Trying to get my library to buy Cage of Souls and The Doors of Eden. I have not read any Tchaikovsky, though I have them on my TBR list.

I thought Mexican Gothic was weak and should not be nominated.

With a lot of Jemisin love out there, I definitely think The City We Became will be nominated. Ditto for Piranesi.

Ok, just for fun, I'm going to make a different list of nomination guesses.

I was realizing last night that I'd made some predictions I forgot about. So I'm adding them here.

The City We Became (this is the only one I'm keeping on because I don't see any way that it won't be nominated...there is a lot of Jemisin love and it is very well written.)
Axiom's End (Lindsey Ellis has a good fan base. Are they Hugo voters? We shall see!) (I don't honestly see this one getting nominated.)
The Space Between Worlds(I loved it! People seem to feel pretty divided on this one, but I think it has a shot.)
The Vanished Birds(It is beautiful and I think a lot of people loved it.)
The Burning God(I've heard rave reviews about this series.)
The Book of Koli(Idk, this group seems to like it?)
The Once and Future Witches (I did not like Doors of January, but it still got every nomination. I didn't like this one either so maybe this will also get every nomination.)
The Invisible Life of Addie LaRue ( People speak very highly of this one.)

To Sleep in a Sea of Stars seems to be popular: it won the Goodreads Choice Award and everything. I have no idea if Hugo voters are enthusiastic about it (perhaps not?), but it seems like worth a bet.

Harrow the Ninth has a rabid fanbase, so it'll get nominated.

And speaking of rabid fans, Network Effect will get the votes from all (us) Murderbot-fangirls and -boys.

The City We Became is about racism and the rise against oppression, but not *too* threatening, so it'll get picked.

Piranesi was so good I can't believe it wouldn't get nominated.

But the last one is really hard. There are many potential nominees, for example A Deadly Education or Mexican Gothic area real possibilities. But despite all reason, last year's Hugo nominations made me optimistic about the hidden wisdom of crowds, so I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that the voting masses have seen the light and will instead nominate The Doors of Eden.

I can definitely see The City We Became winning the Hugo and Piranesi winning the Nebula. It feels like there are heavy leanings toward these authors.

I'm really hoping Mexican Gothic does not get nominated (it was very meh) and Adrian Tchaikovsky finally gets some recognition.

Allan wrote: "I can definitely see The City We Became winning the Hugo and Piranesi winning the Nebula. It feels like there are heavy leanings toward these authors."

I guess Piranesi has two obstacles: non-US author and absence of 'hot' topics, like race, gender, western colonialism, etc. On a plus side it is a study of solitude, perfect for the pandemic

Antti wrote: "To Sleep in a Sea of Stars seems to be popular: it won the Goodreads Choice Award and everything. I have no idea if Hugo voters are enthusiastic about it (perhaps not?), but it seem..."

Last year GR SF was won by Recursion, which hasn't made it to top 16 works with most votes.

I borrowed The Doors of Eden from the library and had to return it before I could get to it. I'm thinking of nominating it just to support all your efforts.

Kalin wrote: "I borrowed The Doors of Eden from the library and had to return it before I could get to it. I'm thinking of nominating it just to support all your efforts."

Great!

Kalin wrote: "I borrowed The Doors of Eden from the library and had to return it before I could get to it. I'm thinking of nominating it just to support all your efforts."

Yeah!!!

I'm thinking:
The City We Became
A Deadly Education
Harrow the Ninth
To Sleep in a Sea of Stars
The Invisible Life of Addie LaRue
and am also torn on #6 since I haven't read Mexican Gothic, Piranesi, Network Effect, The House in the Cerulean Sea

I thought I already answered this already!
The City We Became
Pirenisi
The House in the Cerulean Sea

Kateblue wrote: "I thought I already answered this already!
The City We Became
...
The city we became"

Erm, you have one book twice

As a devoted fan of the Fifth Season, I found the City We Became just wasn't all that great. I'll be sad if it wins, but it seems everyone thinks it's a shoe-in for nomination at the least.

I thought it had some ok moments and was well-written, but it was not nearly as good as the trilogy. I found it more scary at times, but it was basically good guy team forms to defeat the big baddie. Not the most original plot.

Oleksandr wrote:
Erm, you have one book twice"

Yep, well, I have a list in some discussion here . . .

Allan wrote: "I thought it had some ok moments and was well-written, but it was not nearly as good as the trilogy. I found it more scary at times, but it was basically good guy team forms to defeat the big baddi..."

I agree, the "city magic" was pretty unique but the storyline itself couldn't hold a flame against the Fifth Season. I found Staten Island to be quite interesting and poignant given the crazy politicking of 2020 here in the US.

Finalists will be announced April 13.

For novel:
Network Effect by Martha Wells
The City We Became by N.K. Jemisin
Black Sun by Rebecca Roanhorse
Piranesi by Susanna Clarke
The Relentless Moon by Mary Robinette Kowal
Harrow the Ninth by Tamsyn Muir

For novella:
Ring Shout by P. Djeli Clark
Riot Baby by Tochi Onyebuchi
Come Tumbling Down by Seanan McGuire
Empress of Salt and Fortune by Nghi Vo
Upright Women Wanted by Sarah Gailey
FINNA by Nino Cipri

Philip wrote: "Finalists will be announced April 13.

For novel:"

Another women-only novel nominee list... quite possible

Philip wrote: "Finalists will be announced April 13.

For novel:
Network Effect by Martha Wells
The City We Became by N.K. Jemisin
Black Sun by Rebecca Roanhorse
Piranesi by Susanna Clarke
The Relentless Moon by Mary Robinette Kowal
Harrow the Ninth by Tamsyn Muir

For novella:
Ring Shout by P. Djeli Clark
Riot Baby by Tochi Onyebuchi
Come Tumbling Down by Seanan McGuire
Empress of Salt and Fortune by Nghi Vo
Upright Women Wanted by Sarah Gailey
FINNA by Nino Cipri"

OMG wow. Phillip wins this thread with a 100% correct guess for these two categories.

Did you have insider information? :P

The full ballot is listed here: http://file770.com/tag/hugo-awards/

I don't think the data details that Z likes so much are online yet.

Kalin wrote: "OMG wow. Phillip wins this thread with a 100% correct guess for these two categories.

Did you have insider information? :P

Sounds like, doesn't it? XD

Yet this year's list for novel and novella makes it quite easy for me to vote, cause there is only one book each that I really liked.

Dang, congrats, Phillip!

I note that 4 out of 6 novels are also Nebula nominees - something that hasn't ever happened before.

Antti wrote: "I note that 4 out of 6 novels are also Nebula nominees - something that hasn't ever happened before."

... and which makes the awards rather boring imho.

It's also a clean sweep for books written by women. Has that ever happened before? 80% over the last five years!

Gabi wrote: "Antti wrote: "I note that 4 out of 6 novels are also Nebula nominees - something that hasn't ever happened before."

... and which makes the awards rather boring imho."

On the bright side, it's only adding two titles to the spreadsheet.

Kalin wrote: "OMG wow. Phillip wins this thread with a 100% correct guess for these two categories.

Did you have insider information? :P."

Lol well to be transparent, each year I put together a Hugo prediction list using a regression analysis that weighs a given book's performance in precursor book awards, the author's past award and nomination history, and several other factors. So I guess in that sense I cheated lol. But glad to see it was so accurate this year!

Philip wrote: "Kalin wrote: "OMG wow. Phillip wins this thread with a 100% correct guess for these two categories.

Did you have insider information? :P."

Lol well to be transparent, each year I put together a H..."

Wow that's really cool Philip! A great way to apply statistics to reading XD

Congrats, Philip!

Antti - your Nebula's rule seems shifted to Hugos

Antti - your Nebula's rule seems shifted to Hugos"

It was kinda surprising, but it just strengthens the feeling that there is essentially no difference between the Nebulas and the Hugos these days. If the situation continues like this (3-4 overlapping nominations every year) the Nebula award will start to feel pretty superfluous at some point.

Allan wrote: "On the bright side, it's only adding two titles to the spreadsheet."

XD - You are right there! And at least one of them I've already read.

Antti wrote: "Nebula award will start to feel pretty superfluous at some point.."

Yes. With the self-publishing we have more SFF titles than ever, but both major awards are [1] similar and [2] predictable. That's a pity

I agree. The Hugos are usually pretty predictable because it’s basically a popularity contest, but the thing I used to love about the Nebulas was the totally offbeat books I had never heard of. A little too mainstream now.

That's why I lean more towards the Philip K. Dick award or the British awards atm. They still have some treasures to find.

Gabi wrote: "That's why I lean more towards the Philip K. Dick award or the British awards atm. They still have some treasures to find."

Agreed even if the latest BSFA was won by The City We Became

The Hugo noms make perfect sense, and I have read all of the novels except Black Sun. So I see where they are coming from.

Kateblue wrote: "The Hugo noms make perfect sense, and I have read all of the novels except Black Sun. So I see where they are coming from."

Yes, they are quality works, but I still think there were better candidates

Oleksandr wrote: "Yes, they are quality works, but I still think there were better candidates"

I think that the Hugo nominations have become more "lowest common denominator" fiction, maybe because of a shift/acceptance in SF by the "general public?" SF readers are not just a tiny group of people anymore.

But I am a "lowest common denominator" kind of reader, always have been, so I'm fine with it.

On the other hand, Z, I can see why you would prefer The Doors of Eden. It would not be one of my first picks. Even though sometimes I love Adrian Tchaikovsky, this was definitely not my favorite.

Oleksandr wrote: "Gabi wrote: "That's why I lean more towards the Philip K. Dick award or the British awards atm. They still have some treasures to find."

Agreed even if the latest BSFA was won by [book:The City We..."

Yes, but the list of nominations is a good one to go to for further reads.

I will remember to look at the BSFA awards and history of awards. But not right now. What I have wanted to do was make a group that was reading all the World Fantasy Awards and nominees. But there is no time for me to start a group, nor do I have time to read more books. After I get through some of the fantasy series I have promised to read this year, maybe.

I really like the WFAs. It’s typically a good mix of popular and obscure books and of all the awards it’s the one that I agree with most as far as my taste in books.

Philip wrote: "I really like the WFAs. It’s typically a good mix of popular and obscure books and of all the awards it’s the one that I agree with most as far as my taste in books."

That is good to know. I am thinking it might be the same for me.