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KDP Select: My calculator doesn’t recommend it!
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Marcus wrote: "I broke out a calculator recently and tried to predict what my revenues would be using the relatively new KDP Select program. It was far less than the KDP FAQ would lead you to believe.The KDP..."
Marcus, thanks for the input. Quite Revealing. May I quote you elsewhere? With attribution, of course.
Larry wrote: "Marcus, thanks for the input. Quite Revealing. May I quote you elsewhere? With attribution, of course. "Certainly, Larry.
You make some great points, Marcus. I'm not a mathematician, but I might mention your calculations are a bit off at the top... just the simple part. 1.5k books sold at $4.99 will yield you closer to $5k at the 70% royalty rate and $2.6k at the 35% royalty rate.I am curious to know how the author (ronnierayjenkins) found out his royalties through the KDP Select program already. Not only is the month not over, but the figures aren't even released until around the 15th of next month.
I'm actually quite surprised at the number of borrowed books from KDP Select authors. I truly thought the numbers would be lower... one or two here and there, but some authors are reporting in the triple digits.
It'll be interesting to see how the numbers will compute in the end. So many authors are giving their books away for free this month, I imagine there will be fewer free promotion days in January and February. I wonder if the benefits of participating in the program (the boost in rank through free books) will diminish.
As an author who did not opt-in the KDP Select program, I will say competing against the free and Kindle Select books hasn't affected my sales negatively. My Kindle rankings are fluctuating within normal levels with the exception of my bestselling work. The ranking for that one has improved over the holiday season.
Reena wrote: "You make some great points, Marcus. I'm not a mathematician, but I might mention your calculations are a bit off at the top... just the simple part. 1.5k books sold at $4.99 will yield you closer t..."Thanks for pointing out the error; in checking I found that I transcribed the results of a different calculation into the text. I edited the post to correct it (was $1050).
I wondered myself where ronnierayjenkins found his share of the pot. Not being a subscriber to KDP Select, I don’t know what authors have available for real-time tracking. For reference purposes, the post in question is here
As far as the numbers go, the more people who opt in, the lower the returns are for each author. And, like you, I haven’t seen appreciable differences in sales since the program started.
Marcus wrote: "Reena wrote: "You make some great points, Marcus. I'm not a mathematician, but I might mention your calculations are a bit off at the top... just the simple part. 1.5k books sold at $4.99 will yiel..."I think it's probably a matter of believing Amazon's numbers. Frankly, I'm not that trusting. I also declined to opt in to the program. Playing guessing games as to what the actual amount would be isn't to my liking. Royalties are enough risk. I'm not going to forego the opportunity to sell elsewhere while Amazon loans out my books willy-nilly.
Marcus wrote: "I broke out a calculator recently and tried to predict what my revenues would be using the relatively new KDP Select program. It was far less than the KDP FAQ would lead you to believe.The KDP..."
This is interesting, Marcus. Thanks for all the work you've put in. I'm waiting to see how the program works and what writers think about it.
I went ahead and took the dive because of the free promo and my B&N sales were low; I don't expect a significant financial payoff, but I'm hoping the exposure will be worth the loss from removing titles from B&N (and then some, being hopeful :) ) I'll give it the first 90-days and then see if it shook things up in a positive way and I'll report back here by or before then with results. Good luck, authors!!
Marcus wrote: "I broke out a calculator recently and tried to predict what my revenues would be using the relatively new KDP Select program. It was far less than the KDP FAQ would lead you to believe."I decided not to opt in because of the exclusivity clause:
1 Exclusivity. When you include a Digital Book in KDP Select, you give us the exclusive right to sell and distribute your Digital Book in digital format while your book is in KDP Select. During this period of exclusivity, you cannot sell or distribute, or give anyone else the right to sell or distribute, your Digital Book (or content that is reasonably likely to compete commercially with your Digital Book, diminish its value, or be confused with it), in digital format in any territory where you have rights.
I get very few sales anywhere other than Amazon but I don't feel right punishing even as few as one of my fans just because (s)he bought a nook instead of a kindle. And all for what? An extra $0.05 (if I'm lucky) and 6000 free downloads?
I suppose one could argue that half the battle is getting your title out there but c'mon. Of those 6000 downloads, how many are actually going to read it? Rate it? Review it? How many are even going to remember they downloaded it? I have Kindle for PC, over 230 books on it and I can guarantee I won't read them all. But yeah, if I see a book for free that I might like, I download it. Doesn't mean I'll read it and it definitely doesn't mean I'll rate, review, or even tell anyone about it.
Sorry. I get a little upset about KDP Select. I shouldn't let it bother me and it's everyone's choice to make, but I just can't get on board with granting exclusivity to a bookstore.
However, to those who chose to opt in, I wish you the best and I really, really hope it works out well for you.
I agree that using Kindle Select will not necessarily grant a user a near-term windfall. It seems to me the program is more appealling to authors who are just starting off, trying to establish a readership and set-up longterm successes. I enrolled in the program because my limited study of indie publishing thus far has led me to believe that most who succeed do so by taking advantage of a some sort of weakness or short-sight in a particular system and then everyone learns of the weakness, then the weakness is corrected, then the cycle repeats.
I'm not sure that this select program is here to stay or that Amazon's terms are set in stone, nor the book buyers perceptions.
I told a friend of mine I was enrolled and he said to me: Is that even legal. That sounds like an attempt at forming a monopoly. But I'm not a lawyer or knowledgeable in these areas.
Mod
I wish I could find his post!
I think a lot of points have been missed here. I enrolled immediately and it paid off. every borrow of my book was paid out at something like $2.60 per copy (I need to look it up), more than the royalty on a $2.99 sale.
6000 free downloads gives you a huge benefit. Your book jumps to the top of the top list in it's genre and is found by people just browsing the genre, even days after the free promotion is over.
Also, every person who downloads your book and then other books, results in the Amazon algorithm showing your book next to others people downloaded (People who viewed this also viewed... people who bought this also bought) and you can end up getting exposure on the detail pages of books by very established authors.
All in all, I am happy to be with Select and will stay on it for the next few months too. Let's face it, Smashwords was never going to compete with Amazon for sales so why stick around. In fact, I had removed my work from Smashwords, B&N and others before Select was even announced.
Amazon monopoly? OK... as long as they have my work in stock.
Greg wrote: "I think a lot of points have been missed here. I enrolled immediately and it paid off. every borrow of my book was paid out at something like $2.60 per copy (I need to look it up), more than the ..."
Interesting, Greg. When Select was announced, I was in the midst of having someone format my novel for Smashwords. I thought it was important to be listed there since many people either are anti-Amazon or own e-readers other than the Kindle. I also didn't like the exclusivity clause since I was trying to expand my readership, not limit it.
But...since earning premium status on Smashwords, which just means your book is listed on a variety of e-book sites, I've only sold THREE copies! My Amazon sales are significantly higher.
As a professional journalist for many years, I reject the idea of giving my work away so I won't offer free copies of my book, despite the exposure you say your 6000 downloads have given you. Since my novel is also in paperback, I doubt I'd sell many (and it's selling surprisingly well) if it were free in another format.
I'm happy Select is working for you, but I will continue to opt out.
Harriet, my book is also in paperback and sells well in stores of Switzerland's two largest chains and in New Zealand. These are both countries that feature.Promoting a book by offering it free for a day once in a blue moon creates readership. The users that download it for free probably weren't going to buy the paperback, let alone the eBook. But when they read it, enjoy it, review it well... you reap the benefits.
Did your newspapers never distribute a free Wednesday edition (occassionally) or similar to attract new subscribers?
Whatever you decide, I wish you all the best. For going through these time-consuming processes, we at least deserve that. Good luck with Smashwords. I also went premium. No change. I think I was drowned by the erotica, which seems to be 90% of their content.
Marcus wrote: "I broke out a calculator recently and tried to predict what my revenues would be using the relatively new KDP Select program. It was far less than the KDP FAQ would lead you to believe."Marcus, I love this!! I'm a Mechanical Engr but had only rejected KDP Select as a ridiculous proposition based on the gut instinct that the Exclusivity Clause requiring me to restrict myself to one (and only one) online retailer cannot possibly gain me the same level of exposure as selling my book through as many possible online retailers as I can manage to find and to which I can upload my book for free. I know Amazon is the #1 retailer in the world, and books might be their first and still largest segment of product category, but you know what? Outside the USA, Kindle is NOT the #1 eBook format. Dream on, Amazon, you are classicly American-centric.
Thinking outside the USA box, I wanted to be able to distribute my book in ePub format to the Apple iTunes store (huge in Europe and Middle East), the Kobo Books site (huge in Canada and the Middle East), the myriad of libraries in the USA who only lend out ePub books - I definitely did not want to only sell Kindle books to Americans. Oh and let's not forget the other English-speaking countries like Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, and umm, what's that placed called? Oh yeah, ENGLAND. Call me crazy but I think English language books are read by others besides just American citizens.
The analysis by "units" evaluation is just pure magic, though. I love it! love it! love it! Now I'm glad I just joined this group, just for the smiles I've already had on my first day looking at the posts!
Oh, and don't get me wrong, I think for people who want Kindle-only books and have a collection of other books for sale on Amazon already, entering one--and only one--into the KDP Select program can be a great way to get exposure to the American market. This means it's especially good for the non-USA citizens. Alas, Amazon doesn't allow non-USA authors to participate, does it? Hmmm, missed the point again, did they?
I've just released my first book and yes, I uploaded it to KDP because I want to reach my fellow Americans who read Classic SciFi Dystopian novels, but you'd have to kill me to make me enter it into the Select program. In just the first month of release, I've already sold more through Smashwords and its Distribution Channels (which is the point of Smashwords distribution) than even 25% of my Amazon sales. I'd say a 3:1 ratio speaks volumes. I haven't even got reviews yet (to speak of) and it's already more popular off Amazon than on. I'll never remove it from Amazon, but that's my point. Why REMOVE it from anywhere? Why deliberately decline to sell books everywhere possible?
-Friday
@phoenicianbooks
Marcus,Interesting blog with the calculus. Isn't it true that most eBook writers are there for egoboo or to get the word out about their writing than for the money?!
My eBook (A child lost in flight) is scheduled for KDP free days next weekend. Fingers crossed
Latest blog posting will add to this conversation:
'Lessons from the two-day free-book and week-long kindle countdown deal':
https://www.goodreads.com/author_blog...
I’m sure self-published authors will have their own experiences to share on that one!
My two cents on the matter are that Kindle Select is a great way to break out into the world of writing - as an unknown and self-pub author - Amazon gives options for your books to usual traditional buyers - making it possible for them to either purchase or read a book for free or loan it as a word-of-mouth trend - so I think it's a great program to be a part of.
As for royalties and making money, that's always going to depend on the quality of your book and marketing. Amazon cannot help you in writing a great book nor can it go beyond the call of duty for you when there are million other books in the largest retail online shop in the world!
Wow, you really looked into the numbers that's for sure! I see KDP as a way for an author to gain a ton of readers and potential reviews, keyword being potential and gaining these over sales. Nobody wants to constantly give their book away for free but sometimes the statistics show that doing a free promotion tends to not only get people to get the book but it helps the ranking and some even get reviews out of it. Some even rely on KDP but I would only rely on it if I had a dozen books out and didn't care for making one free all the time.I heard somewhere that it's good to make one of your books permanently free so that way if they can easily download this then there's a good chance they purchase your other work. I see this as the same with KDP, if you can afford to make your book free or even wish to take a chance with it then by all means, sometimes free is the way to go in order to achieve better production going forward.
Any more thoughts with the latest changes?
I've recently found out that in order to publish your book with Smashwords you cannot have your book enrolled in KDP. At first I was against KDP but seeing it as a way to do giveaways and freebies decided to enroll the 3. Now that i've published my 4th novel I think rather than enroll it like the others I'm going to put it on Smashwords where they will post it to several sites. KDP is fine and all but I'm thinking this is a great way for me to see where I get better results.
The KDP Select program allows you to enter a book into the Kindle Owner’s Lending Library for 90 days or more and get a piece of the (typically) half-million dollar KDP Select fund. You also get the option of listing your book for free for up to 5 days.
The example Amazon gives on the KDP FAQ is:
“…For example, if the monthly fund amount is $500,000 and the total qualified borrows of all participating KDP titles is 100,000 in December and if your book was borrowed 1,500 times, you will earn 1.5% (1,500/100,000 = 1.5%), or $7,500 in December”
If I sold 1,500 books at $4.99, my royalties would be $5,175. So, this is a good deal… right?
Although the numbers use in the FAQ is just an example, it tends to imply that you could make more money using this program. But one number that isn’t shown in the FAQ is the total number of titles enrolled in the program, which turns out to be the critical value in projecting your returns.
As a starting point, assume all books in the lending library are equal in the reader’s eyes and books to be borrowed are more or less chosen at random by the reader. As I understand it, a reader can only borrow one book a month from the library, therefore, predicting the number of times a single title is borrowed can be expressed as:
U/T = N
Where U=number of users, T=total number of titles, and N= the number of a specific title borrowed (i.e. your title)
According to the KDP FAQ, the returns can be calculated as:
(N*F)/U = R
Where F is the total money in the monthly fund, and R is the returns for the title in question.
Substituting the former into the latter yields:
((U/T)*F)/U = R
Which reduces to:
F/T = R
Notice that the number of users drops out of the equation. As such, the total number of qualified borrowers has no bearing whatsoever on how much you receive from the KDP Select program: the only factors involved are the number of titles listed and the money in that month’s fund.
Here are a few examples for various values of T (total number of titles enrolled):
$500,000/5,000 = $100
$500,000/10,000 = $50
$500,000/25,000 = $20
$500,000/100,000 = $5
Now, this is assuming that all books are equal in the reader’s eyes, which they are not. Readers are more likely to borrow a book that already has some buzz around it over a complete unknown. Also, given a book that lists for $0.99 and a book that lists for $4.99, the reader is more likely to try out the book for $4.99, which would be a better “deal”.
Therefore, we could modify the first equation with:
(U*K)/T = N
Where K is a probability constant for your book in particular. For the assumption that all books are equal in the reader’s eyes K=1. If your book is more popular than par, or more expensive than par, then K > 1. If you are an unknown or your book normally lists at a low price (like $0.99) then K < 1. When K is applied to the final equation, we get:
(K*F)/T = R
If you are an extremely well known author and you normally sell your books at a higher price, then K might be as high as 10 or so. Here are the same examples with K = 10:
10*$500,000/5,000 = $1000
10*$500,000/10,000 = $500
10*$500,000/25,000 = $200
10*$500,000/100,000 = $50
On the other hand, if you are an unknown and normally sell your book for $0.99, then K will most likely be on the order of less than 0.1 or perhaps even less than 0.01. Here are the same examples with K = 0.01:
0.01*$500,000/5,000 = $1
0.01*$500,000/10,000 = $0.50
0.01*$500,000/25,000 = $0.20
0.01*$500,000/100,000 = $0.05
So who benefits from this program? Certainly not the author languishing in obscurity hoping to get noticed, unless they’re hell-bent on listing their book at $0.00 during the 5-day promotional offer.
On the KDP forums, I’ve noticed most people reporting no borrows or numbers along the line of 2 to 4. I also found this post on a KDP forum regarding the KDP Select program (by ronnierayjenkins):
“I made .01 cents so far on KDP as far as the kitty split goes. Yes, you read that right. I did however give away for absolutely nothing...nearly 6000 copies in less than 5 days. Sighs. What the heck... Merry Christmas.”
Authors that already have good circulation and recognition might stand to get a larger piece of the ½ million-dollar pie, but then I question if such an author would want to pull the title from other markets in order to enroll.
Personally, I’m going to pass on KDP Select: my calculator says don’t do it.
What are your thoughts on the KDP Select program? Do you use it? How are your results?