Amr Okasha's Blog

April 22, 2020

It is not only COVID-19 that we have to worry about!

The World's health near future

In the time of illness, the most precious is health; everything will stop saving lives and fighting the diseases. Unfortunately, we succeeded in one thing and failed in another. We succeed in stopping everything and fail to defeat the disease. Like times of the plague, cholera, malaria, SARS, Zika, H1N1, everything stopped, and millions killed because we did not find a final cure for it.
I remember now a piece of news that went viral across media about the Spanish researcher who said, "Go for Ronaldo and ask him to find the cure for you." However, some media resources denied this news; it is still a fact, as it reflects the current funding to healthcare researches or scientific research in general as a basic need against entertainment funding like football or cinema.

It is not only COVID-19 that we have to worry about!

The potential risk could be more extensive, taking on a "temporal dimension." The melting of ice and glaciers could release very ancient and dangerous viruses. In January 2020, for example, a team of Chinese and U.S. scientists reported that they had tracked down as many as 33 infections, from the Tibetan Plateau, of ice samples taken from the Tibetan Plateau, 28 of which were unknown. Traces of the Spaniard virus found frozen in Alaska, while smallpox DNA fragments have resurfaced from permafrost in northeastern Siberia. Precisely permafrost represents a perfect environment for storing bacteria and viruses, at least until global warming intervenes to free them. And that can happen evidenced by an episode of summer of 2016, when - still in Siberia - anthrax killed a teenager and a thousand reindeers, as well as infecting dozens of people.
Climate and infections travel together. To highlight the link, for example, is the " Lancet Countdown Report 2019 ", which combines the changing climate just increased spread of diseases infectious: in a warmer planet, viruses, bacteria, fungi, parasites may find ideal conditions for exploding, spread, recombine, with an increase both in seasonality and in the geographical spread of many diseases. It is a risk that we identified in Greenpeace in time: already in the "Greenpeace Report on Earth Warming" - which turns thirty years, being from 1990 - the epidemiologist Andrew Haines, who would later become director of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine warned that among the side effects of climate change "The spread of disease vectors should be cause for concern." As almost all the experts say, the pandemic of COVID-19, determined by the Coronavirus (SARS-CoV or-2), has a lot to do with the ' environment and with Greenpeace campaigns. Giovanni Maga, director of the IMG Institute of Molecular Genetics of the CNR-IGM of Pavia, explains for example that the factors involved in the growing frequency of epidemics in recent decades are manifold: " Climate changes that modify the habitat of animal vectors of these viruses, human intrusion into several ecosystems more and more virgins, overpopulation, the frequency and rapidity of people's movements.
In a nutshell, the spread of these new viruses would be the inevitable response of nature to the onslaught of man, as explained by virologist Ilaria Capua, who since 2016 directs one of the departments of the EPI (Emerging Pathogens Institute) of the University of Florida: « Three coronaviruses in less than twenty years represent a big alarm bell. These phenomena are also linked to changes in the ecosystem: if the environment is distorted, the virus is faced with new guests ».
In other words, destroying nature almost always ends up having an impact on our health: «If you intervene on an ecosystem and, if necessary, damage it, it will find a new balance, which can often have pathological consequences on human beings."
Professor Ilaria Capua, Director One Health Center of Excellence University of Florida, explains why: « We live in a closed environment. As if we were in an aquarium. Our health depends on 20% on genetic predisposition and for 80% on environmental factors. In addition to the organism in question, care must also study the context ".
COVID-19 seems to be nature's self-defense against humans who are insisting on destroying the environment of the Planet and consuming its resources. We have witnessed many positive effects of global lockdown; Earth's Ozone layer is healing itself, seas and oceans cleaning itself, and noticed the minimum ratio of air pollution since decades.
Man needs to understand the divine message "cooperate to keep your planet clean, cooperate in fighting back the threat." Unfortunately, we still did not get it; even we did not cooperate in fighting back against COVID-19, medical laps, medical companies, and countries still work in silos to find the cure, they don't share information transparently to accelerate the cycle of finding the cure. Everyone wants to be the superhero who will rescue humanity. Still, we don't know that we are all soldiers in one army in the same battel against Coronavirus, we should be all one team.
In t near future, when the Coronavirus pandemic is stopped, and man learned his lesson, he must act on the factors that led to its decision. Without operating that typical mechanism of removal for which politicians, journalists, public opinion are filled with the word "climate" - for example - in the presence of hurricanes, floods, or devastating fires, except to forget a second later. If this does not happen, if we do not act on the causes of the spread of new viruses, which are also environmental, we would continue to live in a condition of severe potential risk. Also, in the near future, more resources and funds will be dedicated by governments and medicine companies as well as the private sector and non-medicine companies to search for cures and protection in case of new diseases spread like corona-virus. Gaint business companies which are non-medical ones will fund the scientific reaches as the business impact negatively with medical quarantine. A different look for medical teams and scientists and may celebs lose much fame and influence shortly.
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Published on April 22, 2020 02:26

April 19, 2020

THE AMERICAN ELECTIONS 2020 AND THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN

As promised!
Here it is the 1st article of my UNPUBLISHED book "CIVID-19 & World's Near Future"
The American elections 2020 and the global economic slowdown.

Introduction
An Epidemic is the appearance and spread of an infectious disease that strikes at the same time and in the same place a large number of people, animals (epizootic) or plants (epiphytic). We regularly talk about an influenza epidemic. If the outbreak spreads over a large geographic area, we speak of a pandemic.

Since antiquated times, history has cleared out us a few follows of these irresistible infections that have terrorized social orders. In the middle ages, leprosy reappears in Europe around the year 1000 and causes great terrors. Lepers are isolated in junk rooms, outside of towns and villages. Lepers, accepted to be had, had to announce their nearness by waving little bells to let others pay attention, Lepers are here. Leprosy practically disappeared in the 16th century. However, outbreaks have remained in some geographic regions.

The epidemic is an excellent historical reality, long as little known by historians as feared by contemporaries. History of epidemics, but also outbreaks of history: do not diseases appear with their independent lives, asserting themselves, expanding, diminishing and disappearing? Own rhythms, no doubt, but correlated with subsistence crises, mentalities, trade, wars, or pilgrimages. The study of epidemics is thus at the crossroads of disciplines. In essence, it belongs, of course, to medicine, but also human geography by its modes of propagation and its routes, to social psychology and demography by its effects, to the Finally, history, whose structural transformations it accelerates or slows down and whose conjunctures it modifies.

COVID-19, according to WHO, is a pandemic, but from the point of view of some religion, it is divine punishment or a test for man, and from another people perspective, COVID-19 made by man. Different opinions about COVID-19 are made every day to explain how it comes? And why is it here?. In this series of articles, I won’t answer these questions, not even try. I will take COVID-19 as an obstacle that man has to go through it, and I will discuss what comes after passing this obstacle? Furthermore, what could happen to lifestyle and standard life systems?.

As I Expects many changes in the world’s near future at many levels of life, healthcare, politics, science, business, economy culture, and education will take place as a result of what we are facing now.

In the past centuries, the world was not able to cope with change happen with epidemic and pandemic diseases because they did not have the idea of globalism or one planet. Nowadays, we have this idea because of communication and information breakthrough in the whole world, and this will make the world cope with the change with Corona-virus.

World’s politics near future
(1) The American Elections and the global economic slowdown

Poker game in 2020, the current American President has an excellent hand to play. If on the one side the Democrats could have put the “Trump” card on the table with the start of the impeachment procedures, and on the other, a slowdown in the global economy, due to COVID-19, could favor them. However, no one should underestimate the formidable skills of “Donald Trump” as a politician from the election campaign, not least his ability to mobilize the main supporters of his cause before next year’s presidential election.

“It’s the economy, beauty”: this slogan coined for the first time by the strategist of Bill Clinton’s election campaign during the 1992 presidential race remains current, considering that today the health of the American economy will play a significant role in determining the next tenant in the White House. While Trump’s democratic rival will undoubtedly have a chance to point out a slowdown in the US economy in 2020, market expectations of a downturn next year may turn out to be excessive.

The US economy is more likely to move forward, an opinion shared by the economists of the International Monetary Fund, who forecast growth of 2.1% in 2020, down from the 2.4% expected this year.

However, there is a sense, rightly, of the feeling that the growth prospects of the United States remain fragile, given the economic slowdown we are witnessing worldwide – partly due to Trump’s protectionist policies – which will probably continue in 2020 and beyond. Regardless of the outcome of next year’s elections, Trump’s aggressive approach to China since he became President has fueled a competitive rivalry between the two nations that will define global prospects both economically and politically for the foreseeable future.

For investors, some comfort can be drawn from the historical performance of the stock market because of the American presidential election. A study of the election cycles between 1952 and 2000 showed that an investor holding a portfolio of securities that mirrors the S&P 500 index in the 27 months preceding the elections in the United States (from October 1 of the second year of the presidential term to December 31 of the election year) recorded significant returns.

In a year of elections for the United States, the polarizing figure of Donald Trump is bound to dominate the news and remain a disruptive factor in global markets. Politics has always had the power to distract and shift attention away from the fundamentals. The current rivalry between the US and China will continue to influence the markets for the next few years. In such a climate, anchoring investment decisions to pure analysis and research cannot be an underestimated factor.

Concerning the current global growth prospects, it is worrying that the central banks of most western developed countries have few cartridges at their disposal to counter a sharp recession. The outgoing President of the ECB Mario Draghi has called on the governments of the Eurozone to increase their fiscal spending to support their respective economies.

This is undoubtedly the most comfortable way, which will probably be unusual for politicians aiming for re-election. Interestingly, the IMF also seems to encourage higher spending by governments these days for countries where “economic activity has weakened or could slow down rapidly” and where “space to loosen monetary policy is limited.”

It should also be borne in mind that global manufacturing activity has been falling for several months, even if the level of the slowdown has eased, while global exports have marked the second-worst drop since October 2012, with Germany in the lead. As for China, the second-largest economy globally, GDP growth has fallen to almost its lowest in the past 30 years, raising doubts about its ability to help boost the global economy, as had happened after the global financial crisis in 2007-2008.

All these economic indications suggest a global economy that is at a turning point. Moderate further growth is possible, but a damaging recession is also possible. It is difficult to find yourself in this situation during an election year for the United States, the most likely is damaging recession along with Trump winning 2020 elections.

To be continued,
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Published on April 19, 2020 05:14 Tags: trump-american-elections

February 26, 2020

Hey, I am dump !!

How many times have you said to yourself, "Hey, I am dump"?

For me, I say it to myself most of the time, and I believe that people around me think that too.

But what is the reason behind this to you or to me? Actually, I thought about this many times, but I did not find anything, why?, Already I told you I am dump, how do you expect me to find out why I am dump!.

But I can share some of my thoughts about this with you; also, I believe that you are familiar with some of these thoughts as you called yourself dump someday, and then you had some ideas about it too.

You or I could be embarrassed about something you or I did, and thinking it is wrong.

OR

Could be doing something you or I think doing it is wrong.

OR

Could be doing something new and people don't know it and will blame you if you do it.

OR

It could be NOT doing something you think you should do.

You and I if one what we " THINK" happen, we will blame ourselves and will say " Hey, I am dump, it happened because of this ", it may be normal for other people what you and I did as nowadays many strange things happens and does not bother anyone it may take their attention but they won't say about who did it " He/ She is dump" actually some of them may tell himself " Hey, I am dump, not to do what he did", they may think they are mistaken if they did not do same as you, this about others how they react about what you or I did.

About ourselves why our reaction is " Hey, I am dump", if it is normal for others, or at least they don't care about it at all ,then so what, I believe that people think you or I dump if we feel that, they will not notice what you do until you have the " dump" reaction only on this they will notice your response, otherwise they won't see anything, they are busy watching the dump things they do and thinking what if others saw what they did, actually you and I not that important for people to watch what you do, they are busy watching what they do and worried about if someone notice what they did , they are busy with their "Hey, I am dump".
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Published on February 26, 2020 07:27 Tags: self-help-personal-development

October 7, 2019

The "good"​ vampire!! How is negative energy a trigger for creativity?

I have been in favor of the saying "think positive," but also I like to “ think creative, “ and I believe that the negative energy is the trigger of creativity.

People who are the primary source of this energy exists everywhere around; they may sit next to your desk at work right now, sharing the bed with you at home or maybe closer, you can feel their negative energy every hour in the day.

These people were a natural trigger for my imaginative reasoning and idea development, even if it led to failure sometimes, but at the end, I am the winner, failure is just the first step in the path of success, but only, for those who learn from their mistakes.

Positive energy effective in the presence of negative energy, as the electric motor does work, and the light bulb is illuminated only in the presence of a positive and negative pole; therefore, negative energy is no less important than positive energy, but it is the greatest motivation in releasing creative thinking of the thinker and also the most significant motivation in strengthening the will of the challenging of the circumstances and the oppressors of the wrong conditions.

Some self-development coaches encourage their trainees to avoid negative people in life or work. Those coaches call negative people “energy vampires,” as they feed on positive energy and drain their unfortunate victims from their power, which make them frustrated and incapable to proceed ; Just as vampires that drain your blood, and leave you a dead body unable to do anything after, even you may transform into a vampire too.

In fact, I am against this analogy and this guidance to stay away from negative people; Those people are half of life supplementing or the other side of life and maybe your friend, wife, brother, or one of your parents or even your manager at work. These are people who cannot be turned away from them, neglected, or ignored. The end result of applying this dangerous advice is social isolation you may impose on yourself.

The question now is that if the solution is not to be away from negative people, what is the answer?. Personally, I believe that the answer to this question is really more straightforward than the question itself. All that you have to do is turn the situation into a win-win and change your view of the negative people in your life and appreciate them as much as possible and even help them to get out their negative energy.

This may appear unfamiliar to you... However, form my experience, I believe it is the right thing to do.

Negative energy inside people is something they cannot keep within, the human body cannot bear it, so they always seek to take it out and broadcast it around them. Therefore you used to see these people discouraging others, yelling at disappointment and always complaining,

So why not play with them the part of a “GOOD” vampire who makes a difference them get freed of what they feel. You can even feed on their negative energy that will assist you in releasing your creativity and reinforcing your will.

The negative energy you gained, plus the positive energy you have, all will turn into a kinetic energy you need to release your creativity, strengthen your will to do what you intend to do, or even at least satisfy you with your current situation and where you are.
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Published on October 07, 2019 23:17 Tags: creativity-good_vampire

June 19, 2019

Helping Others to Change Their Minds

We all know how easy it is to intend to help a person to come up with new ideas and patterns of thinking, only to find that they get upset or angry. Helping another person to find ways to literally ‘change their own mind’ is no trivial matter. The key is to be empathetic but not shy away from asking plenty of questions and being appropriately challenging.
The following is a case study from a time when I was the voluntary manager of a problem-solving group on Facebook. I received a kind of “Agony Aunt” letter from a female member, saying that she was upset because her husband was working abroad and did not phone her every day. She said that she nagged him on every call about this, but he didn’t care. I contacted her for a (typed) conversation to clarify the matter before answering her. Below is the dialogue. Please note that this is translated from an Arabic conversation, and the editor has been faithful to the literal words.
Me: Peace be upon you, Madam.
Lady: Peace be upon you.
Me: I’ve read your message, but I have a question to clarify the matter.
Lady: Go ahead - ask.
Me: Why do you nag your husband on every call?
Lady: Because he does not appreciate the suffering I go through due to his absence and the responsibility I bear.
Me: But it seems that [approach] was useless as he continued phoning infrequently.
Lady: Yes.
Me: Do you nag other contacts, for example, your friends or siblings?
Lady: Yes.
Me: Why?
Lady: This is the way I express my feelings.
Me: I think your problem stems from your habit of nagging others. People often try to avoid those who nag them all the time.
Lady: What should I do?
Me: This bad habit stems from some negative ideas you hold about nagging people. You should replace these bad ideas with good and positive ones. This is how your problem with your husband will be solved. You have to know and be convinced that the habit of nagging is a repulsive act which keeps your beloved away from you. The new positive idea which should replace the old negative one is to replace nagging with words that express your feelings of missing someone. Simple words such as "I miss you."
Never say things like "Finally, you have remembered me," "Why haven’t you not call me?" or "Why have you forgotten me?" etc. Using words like "always" or "never" is a surefire way of putting your spouse on the defensive, and this may make him refuse or ignore your request.
Better still, experiment and learn which approaches work better than others. Master the skill of getting what you want without asking for it. Choose your words and use them well. Now, there are many ways to ask for something you want. Do this in the next call and remember not to ask him when he will call again; only express your feelings and how much you miss him. Tell me the result after four calls with your husband”.
The lady contacted me a week later to tell me about the wonderful results that had been achieved! On the very next call she stopped blaming her husband for her unhappiness in their relationship and (importantly) didn’t nag him when he called. Instead, she started telling him how much she appreciated all the effort he was putting into his work and how much she missed him. Two days later, he phoned her, and she repeated what she had done during the previous call. She did the same for the next two calls. Then, of his own accord, he decided to take a vacation to come home and spend time with her in person.
The problem this lady had was that she had adopted the idea that nagging was a way of getting her husband’s attention. By replacing this negative idea with a positive one, a new good, positive habit appeared - expressing concern by showing care and interest in others.
As this simple example demonstrates, ideas can positively or negatively affect our habits. The same is true for our personalities, motives, and wider behavior. Ideas deeply affect our lives, out interaction with the environment and with the people around us.
Unfortunately, once a person has ‘got an idea stuck in their head’ they will deliberately or subconsciously seek out individuals and other information that supports that idea. This is known as ‘confirmation bias’.
The idea of confirmation bias has been around since ancient times, noted by historian Thucydides , (c. 460 BC – c. 395 BC), author of The Divine Comedy - Dante Alighieri (1265–1321) and Abū Zayd ‘Abd ar-Raḥmān ibn Muḥammad ibn Khaldūn al-Ḥaḍramī the 14th century historian (1332 – 1406) .
The English philosopher and Francis Bacon, wrote in 1620:“The human understanding when it has once adopted an opinion ... draws all things else to support and agree with it. And though there be a greater number and weight of instances to be found on the other side, yet these it either neglects or despises, or else by some distinction sets aside or rejects”.
Writing in the 19th Century, both the German philosopher Arthur Schopenhauer and Russia’s famous novelist Leo Tolstoy agreed.
While there is agreement across time and cultures that confirmation bias exists, it remains one of the most challenging obstacles to humans being able to effectively transition through changing circumstances – or to proactively go about changing their circumstances and results. In this way, a Fixed Mindset takes root and failure becomes a self-fulling prophecy.
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Published on June 19, 2019 02:03