What predicts who survives a major crisis? Jared Diamond, UCLA professor and author of several award-winning books—including the Pulitzer in 1997 for Guns, Germs, and Steel—has identified twelve factors found among individuals and nations who survive

[image error]“The sky is falling!” by Brintam. CC BY-NC 2.0

major crises. Along with his wife, clinical psychologist Marie Cohen Diamond, they reviewed the family crisis literature to identify factors that predict successful resolution of major family crises. In his Upheaval: Turning Points for Nations in Crisis (2019), Diamond applies these twelve predictors to seven nations and how they fared on the twelve dimensions: Australia, Chile, Finland, Germany, Japan, Indonesia, and the U.S.A. I highly recommend this read for all clinicians, on the one hand, and all national political strategists, on the other.

As an organizational psychologist, my interest is in applying these dozen factors to organizations. From the smallest unit of a family to the largest unit of a nation, I go in between for a look at organizations—corporate, religious, non-profit, educational. Below I define each of the twelve predictors, and offer a brief example of evidence that the predictor is present or not. I do not attempt to be exhaustive, but rather to spark thought and discussion.

Acknowledge you’re in crisis. Denial is not just a river in Egypt. Like escalation of commitment, whereby organizations pour good money after bad, blind optimism doesn’t bode well for an organization in major crisis (hostile takeover, a major recall/quality problem, a bleeding bottom line, menacing competition, shrinking markets, and so on). Evidence this predictor exists: A consensus of leaders makes a public statement that the organization is in a crisis.
Accept responsibility. Don’t blame others or wallow in self-pity—prefer to accept willingly and eagerly the need to make necessary changes. Evidence: Public statements focus on goals, methods, and assignments without language of blame or suffering.
Selective change. Fence off what is OK and focus on needed changes. Don’t throw the baby out with the bath water—keep the baby, but fix the water. Evidence: Public statements identify what is working well and will continue, while identifying what is under scrutiny.
Seek and accept help. Trying to go it alone risks doing the same old, same old, with the same results. Check outside the normal sources to identify helpful models, processes, and approaches. Evidence: Let it be known where you are looking—competitors, related industries, other countries/cultures.
Use others’ models. Sometimes you need to take someone else’s model and adapt it for your own needs. Evidence: Give credit to the source of your borrowings.
Embrace your organizational culture. Embrace the organization’s culture. Stress its uniqueness, its traditions, its story—therein lies ego strength through a sense of identity and pride. Evidence: A clear vision statement.
Face facts. Exhaustively search for relevant information to use in your problem-solving, decision-making, and planning. An honest self-evaluation means getting all the facts and evaluating them objectively. Evidence: All stakeholders are tapped for information and opinion—owners, workers, managers, customers, suppliers, competitors, industry data.
Celebrate past successes. Pointing to incidents in the organization’s past when crises were successfully addressed is a confidence builder and an indication of continuing ability to thrive. Evidence: Internal (as in newsletters) and external (as in media pieces) communication of the organization’s record of successful crisis management.
Patience. Crisis management is complex. Quick fixes are the enemy of long-term success. As Peter Drucker asserted, time spent now is saved later. Evidence: Willingness to experiment, test, engage in trial runs, engage in in-depth discussions and analyses.
Flexibility. Knowing there is more than one way to address a problem. Evidence: Open consideration of alternatives, including sources not previously considered or trusted.
Core values. Cling to organizational values that remain adaptive, but eschew outdated ones. Evidence: Updated values statement.
Freedom from constraints. Regulatory requirements, market trends, major competitor advantages—all can hamper recovery. Evidence: Bright outlook for the industry.

Whether your organization comprises two  or two million—or somewhere in between, these principles should guide leadership’s behavior in times of a major crisis.