The World after Corona Virus
For decades we have been hearing the prophets of doom announcing the approaching end of the world. We heard about Nibiru or Planet-X, a dark planet whose arrival will spell the doom for the earth; about Mayan Calendar and end of the world in 2012; the approaching ecological cataclysm caused by global warming, Extra Terrestrials from Pleiades or from Orion taking over the earth; about a Cabal taking the entire humanity as hostage and so on. Even as recent as last month Star Gazers tracking an asteroid of the size of Isle of Manhattan were predicting that it may hit the earth.
Finally it arrived, stealthily and totally unannounced. None of the prophets of doom had anticipated that an invisible enemy would appear from nowhere and bring about changes on a scale that the humanity has not witnessed in its entire history, except perhaps during the mythical flood referred to in Old Testament and scriptures of various religions.
All of us would be tempted to believe that is just a temporary hiccup—that once the peak rate of mortality goes down and lock downs are lifted, we will carry on with our lives the way we used to. However, it may be sheer folly to do think in that manner, for the world that we knew before this virus manifested itself may not be the same for a long time to come.
The impact of this enemy—Novel Corona virus, or Covid-19 is going to result in changes of such a magnitude that 2020 may go down into the history as starting a new era — ‘After-Corona’.
Likely impact of the virus on global level:
It is the general perception, and not without reason, that the virus has spread all over the world with such swiftness only because we are living in a globalized world, in which China has emerged, of late, as a big player.
Not many of us perhaps knew much about Wuhan prior to this crisis, even though it is a highly developed city and one of the first to roll out 5G. Not many of us knew that more than two million Chinese workers were employed in fashion and leather industries in Italy and that there was a sizable thriving Chinese community in Spain. A large number of Chinese expatriates in these two countries have links with Wuhan. Apart from that, the big spending Chinese are very mobile especially during the Chinese New Year holiday season and among them Italy, Spain, France and USA are hot favourite countries. Even otherwise, large numbers of Chinese travelled to the various parts of the world for business purpose between November 2019 to early March, 2020, as the economies of all major countries of Europe and Americas, in fact of most countries in the world have got heavily linked and dependent on Chinese products in last few decades.
This rampant globalization has therefore been the first victim of the lock-downs brought in the wake of this epidemic. It is a trend that is going to continue. It is not that it would stop completely, as countries would continue to depend on each other for raw materials, finished products and services. But the disproportionate dependence on various Chinese products, which were earlier being manufactured in various countries of the world in the past, is likely to witness a gradual reduction in times to come. In fact, it has already begun. All the countries are facing shortage of medical supplies of which China has been the main supplier. The countries which have the wherewithal to produce ventilators, masques etc have started doing that on a big scale.
Even otherwise, various countries have seen entire sectors of industries getting shifted to China due to its cheap labour and lax environmental and other laws. This has led to mass scale unemployment and unrest in these countries. The current pandemic is therefore likely to serve as a good excuse and occasion to anti Chinese lobbies in major countries to press for gradual shifting back of those industries. The current climate of distrust towards China is therefore also likely to induce major I.T and other industries to shift their operations to other countries and zones which would be perceived to be more reliable than China in the new scenario.
What we are likely to see at least in immediate future is a less globalized though more connected world. The threat of corona virus is not going to disappear in short time and various parts of the world may see its recurrence with changes in weather pattern between the upper and lower hemisphere. Social distancing is therefore likely to continue to be a norm for quite some time to come.
Over the coming year or even later than that, international travel for business purposes is likely to witness a reduction as more and more people will try to get things done via video conferencing. International tourism, international conference, fairs, exhibitions, sports meets etc would also witness a decline at least over the next year. Imports and exports are also likely to suffer in the short term as procurement of raw materials manufacturing and all the supply chains which have come to a virtual standstill in various parts of the world will take time to get reestablished.
The current pandemic is likely to bring about major changes in the policies on national, regional and world level. It has the potential to shift the balance of power in the world and give rise to a new world order.
On individual level:
All of us who have been confronted with this lock-down have gone through the stages of initial shock and denial, and are now getting used to a new way of living that is no short of a house arrest. It is something that was beyond anyone’s imagination. However, this long phase of isolation, scarcity, abnegation and denial of pleasures earlier taken for granted, is forcing all of us, to some degree or the other, to confront our own self and to have a re-look at our relationship with our own deeper self and with others around us.
It is a well known phenomenon that denial of something over a period of time reduces our dependence on it and gives rise to new habits. All of us, all over the world, sharing this common destiny of a forced lock-down, would therefore realize to some extent or the other the futility of so many things to which we had been giving tremendous importance in life. Many of us are therefore likely to give up our dependence over various things, acquire new habits and this experience is thus likely to result in new paradigms on the level of individuals.
The present lock-down and what is going to follow it has great potential to change our world view on an individual level.
Finally it arrived, stealthily and totally unannounced. None of the prophets of doom had anticipated that an invisible enemy would appear from nowhere and bring about changes on a scale that the humanity has not witnessed in its entire history, except perhaps during the mythical flood referred to in Old Testament and scriptures of various religions.
All of us would be tempted to believe that is just a temporary hiccup—that once the peak rate of mortality goes down and lock downs are lifted, we will carry on with our lives the way we used to. However, it may be sheer folly to do think in that manner, for the world that we knew before this virus manifested itself may not be the same for a long time to come.
The impact of this enemy—Novel Corona virus, or Covid-19 is going to result in changes of such a magnitude that 2020 may go down into the history as starting a new era — ‘After-Corona’.
Likely impact of the virus on global level:
It is the general perception, and not without reason, that the virus has spread all over the world with such swiftness only because we are living in a globalized world, in which China has emerged, of late, as a big player.
Not many of us perhaps knew much about Wuhan prior to this crisis, even though it is a highly developed city and one of the first to roll out 5G. Not many of us knew that more than two million Chinese workers were employed in fashion and leather industries in Italy and that there was a sizable thriving Chinese community in Spain. A large number of Chinese expatriates in these two countries have links with Wuhan. Apart from that, the big spending Chinese are very mobile especially during the Chinese New Year holiday season and among them Italy, Spain, France and USA are hot favourite countries. Even otherwise, large numbers of Chinese travelled to the various parts of the world for business purpose between November 2019 to early March, 2020, as the economies of all major countries of Europe and Americas, in fact of most countries in the world have got heavily linked and dependent on Chinese products in last few decades.
This rampant globalization has therefore been the first victim of the lock-downs brought in the wake of this epidemic. It is a trend that is going to continue. It is not that it would stop completely, as countries would continue to depend on each other for raw materials, finished products and services. But the disproportionate dependence on various Chinese products, which were earlier being manufactured in various countries of the world in the past, is likely to witness a gradual reduction in times to come. In fact, it has already begun. All the countries are facing shortage of medical supplies of which China has been the main supplier. The countries which have the wherewithal to produce ventilators, masques etc have started doing that on a big scale.
Even otherwise, various countries have seen entire sectors of industries getting shifted to China due to its cheap labour and lax environmental and other laws. This has led to mass scale unemployment and unrest in these countries. The current pandemic is therefore likely to serve as a good excuse and occasion to anti Chinese lobbies in major countries to press for gradual shifting back of those industries. The current climate of distrust towards China is therefore also likely to induce major I.T and other industries to shift their operations to other countries and zones which would be perceived to be more reliable than China in the new scenario.
What we are likely to see at least in immediate future is a less globalized though more connected world. The threat of corona virus is not going to disappear in short time and various parts of the world may see its recurrence with changes in weather pattern between the upper and lower hemisphere. Social distancing is therefore likely to continue to be a norm for quite some time to come.
Over the coming year or even later than that, international travel for business purposes is likely to witness a reduction as more and more people will try to get things done via video conferencing. International tourism, international conference, fairs, exhibitions, sports meets etc would also witness a decline at least over the next year. Imports and exports are also likely to suffer in the short term as procurement of raw materials manufacturing and all the supply chains which have come to a virtual standstill in various parts of the world will take time to get reestablished.
The current pandemic is likely to bring about major changes in the policies on national, regional and world level. It has the potential to shift the balance of power in the world and give rise to a new world order.
On individual level:
All of us who have been confronted with this lock-down have gone through the stages of initial shock and denial, and are now getting used to a new way of living that is no short of a house arrest. It is something that was beyond anyone’s imagination. However, this long phase of isolation, scarcity, abnegation and denial of pleasures earlier taken for granted, is forcing all of us, to some degree or the other, to confront our own self and to have a re-look at our relationship with our own deeper self and with others around us.
It is a well known phenomenon that denial of something over a period of time reduces our dependence on it and gives rise to new habits. All of us, all over the world, sharing this common destiny of a forced lock-down, would therefore realize to some extent or the other the futility of so many things to which we had been giving tremendous importance in life. Many of us are therefore likely to give up our dependence over various things, acquire new habits and this experience is thus likely to result in new paradigms on the level of individuals.
The present lock-down and what is going to follow it has great potential to change our world view on an individual level.
No comments have been added yet.
