What Happened to China? | Lessons from an Authoritarian State

September 6, 2023
Vicar Sayeedi

A substantial body of evidence has been accumulating over the past 78 years [post WW2] which indicates that the combination of an intolerant culture in society and some variant of an authoritarian regime in government will severely limit a nation’s ability to achieve an advanced, peaceful, prosperous and secure environment for their citizens, as found amongst the world’s leading liberal democracies.

But the rise of China has, until recently, left many thought leaders perplexed – the achievements in East Asia seemed to contradict that enormous body of evidence quite directly and has consequently led to a “democratic recession” around the world. Many nations, heartened by China’s success, abandoned the hard work of establishing liberal democracy in favor of electoral autocracy, illiberal democracy, monarchy, theocracy or other forms of authoritarianism.

But as the analysis of Chinese history during the post-Maoist era [Deng Xiaoping economic and political reforms initiated in 1978] becomes clearer, it seems that the post-war evidence of the superiority of liberal democracy vis a vis authoritarianism has in the end been proven reliable and valid. The Chinese model of successful authoritarian/totalitarian governance with markets masquerading as free and open was both temporary and illusory and is now quite likely over.

Numerous nations around the world abandoned the hard work required to establish the requisite institutions and cultural changes to nurture a liberal democracy. Unfortunately, in retrospect they have wasted their energy, time and other limited or scarce resources in the hope that there was another path to the success of Western nations – a path which did not require replicating liberal democratic principles in governance and the requisite cultural change vis a vis tolerant societies. Sadly, and at irrecoverable expense they have been proven wrong.


What happened to China?
The Chinese people were very supportive of the Chinese Communist Party and the current regime until quite recently. But the average savings rate amongst Chinese citizens now exceeds 30% – in the US it’s ~7% – and such a high savings rate is a strong indicator of disillusionment amongst the citizenry and a palpable angst about their future. If the Chinese were confident, no doubt they would invest their money in property or securities rather than park it in savings accounts.

Consumer spending is also falling, prices for a broad array of consumer goods are being marked down and imports of consumer products are declining. Collectively, this is threatening a deflationary spiral.

Today, over 20% of university graduates are unemployed – the Chinese economy simply cannot provide jobs for them. In fact, over half the employees in cigarette manufacturing plants are university graduates – unfortunately they have no better prospects. The Chinese government has stopped reporting this important statistic and other key statistics – the resulting opacity in data is further spooking domestic and international investors and foreign direct investment.

Evergrand and Country Garden – the two largest property developers – have a combined debt of $500B and no longer have the operating cash flows to service this debt. If possible, the Chinese State needs to keep them afloat because businesses this large have tentacles reaching far and wide throughout the economy – consumers who have placed down payments for unbuilt or unfinished housing and supply chains in the building trade – so the impact from bankruptcy will be broadly devastating.

Since ~2016, the Chinese have been behaving very badly on the world stage [Wolf Warrior Diplomacy] and this has done immense damage to their international reputation. They are now viewed unfavorably across the Developed World and consequently exports are declining as Western industrialists seek friendlier business partners and manufacturing centers.

The Chinese are engaging in serious diplomatic and political exchanges in Australia, Canada, India, Japan, Philippines, Vietnam and throughout the South China Sea [Nine Dashed Line]. Their aggressive and threatening military posture towards Taiwan, their violation of treaties vis a vis Hong Kong, and their abominable treatment and human rights violations of the Uighur people in Xinjiang has further ruined their reputation.

The Chinese are no longer viewed as a trusted partner, so the West is now unwilling to share sensitive state-of-the-art technology which has potential military applications – this has further harmed China’s critical technology industries. China invested heavily in infrastructure development during the past 45 years – airports, bridges, manufacturing facilities, rail lines, roads, shipping infrastructure, etc. The US and Western Europe have similar infrastructure, but it was developed over a 150 year period. By developing its infrastructure so rapidly, China has recorded dramatic economic growth rates during the past 45 years, but the infrastructure is now largely complete so the contribution to GDP growth will be much, much less.

The other major contribution to China’s GDP growth during this period was manufacturing but this is also under considerable pressure - customers were financially harmed during the pandemic due to their dependency on China as an exclusive supplier. They won’t make this mistake again as it was a very expensive one.

Finally, China has been pushing its female citizens to work in manufacturing these past 45 years. This has had irreversible consequences. The One Child Policy [and its precursor, “Later, Longer, Fewer”] has resulted in a dramatic and irreversible decline in the cohort of women of childbearing age. Today, the consensus view amongst demographers is that China’s current population of 1.4B will age and decline to between 650M-750M by the turn of the century.

In conclusion, the lessons are difficult but nevertheless they must be learned by all – when authoritarian regimes get it right, they can move very fast and unopposed in the right direction. But when they get it wrong, the lack of checks on their power virtually guarantees that the nation will face critical or even existential harm.

China is an excellent case study confirming that authoritarianism has a series of congenital defects and missing attributes that once addressed put a nation on the road to liberal democracy. On the evolutionary timeline authoritarianism is therefore the ancient, inferior ancestor of liberal democracy.








Vicar Sayeedi is a Computer Scientist and Bell Labs Alumnus, a Lecturer and a Consultant. He is a highly experienced writer and is the author of several books. Vicar’s most recent book is about Artificial Intelligence and is titled, The Génome Affair. Vicar has written over 140 essays and recorded nearly 100 lectures on Artificial Intelligence. His forthcoming book is titled, “Our World in 2050”. The book examines the three major trends reshaping the world today and how they will change our world in the future: the rise of China and the resulting change to the world order, the ubiquity and pervasiveness of Artificial Intelligence and Climate Change.

Vicar has lectured widely to audiences around the world, stretching from Silicon Valley to Singapore. He has recently lectured in New York at the National Hemophilia Foundation about AI & the Life Sciences. He has also lectured in London in the Royal Boroughs of Kensington & Chelsea and Westminster, in Sunnyvale in Silicon Valley, the National Library of Singapore as well as in Düsseldorf [with invitations extended to Amsterdam, Berlin, Cologne, Rome, Stockholm & Vienna] on AI and its implications for individuals and societies. Vicar has lectured at leading companies, as well. Most recently, Vicar has lectured on ‘AI - Implications for Democracy in an Age of Surging Authoritarianism’ at Elmhurst University and at East West University on ‘AI | Implications for Our Future’.

Vicar is most interested in the big questions facing humankind. He is particularly focused on studying at the confluence of the five great disciplines of Human History, Political Science and Thought, International Affairs, Science and Technology. For geopolitical technologists, the symbiosis at this intersection offers a deep understanding and pedagogically important lessons of how advances in human endeavor have influenced and impacted civilization.

Vicar has been writing books, essays and poetry for many years. For the past 30 years, Vicar has worked in the Technology and Pharmaceutical industries. He is currently a Consultant in the Life Sciences Industry and lives in suburban Chicago with his wife and their three grown children.


You can find Vicar’s recent book on AI, The Génome Affair on Amazon at this link:
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07YQ7M9Q7

The most recent episodes of Vicar’s ai & u! Podcast are on YouTube at the following links:

Episode 1 - https://youtu.be/yNYr28jtY_k
What is Artificial Intelligence? What is Human Intelligence?

Episode 2 - https://youtu.be/kAEgDNh1Nwc
How Did We Get Here? Machine Learning, Neural Networks & the AI Lexicon, Exciting AI Agents

Episode 3 - https://youtu.be/3PYCyv1pCgM
Deep Mind - How Powerful is Narrow AI? State Surveillance and Surveillance Capitalism

Episode 4 - https://youtu.be/WvobCMIM_H4
Impact on Societies That Possess Artificial Intelligence Versus Those that Do Not!

Episode 5 - https://youtu.be/4JVpvm4g79g
Surveillance Capitalism, Surveillance State, 4th Industrial Revolution, Bifurcation of Sapiens

Episode 6 - https://youtu.be/e1q2GgcWQok
AI, Blockchain & Quantum Computing - Implications for Global and National Governance

Episode 7 - https://youtu.be/4bDSUvrOdd4
Popular Perceptions of Intelligence, the Seat of Human Intelligence and Implications for AI

Episode 8 - https://youtu.be/3GjHqQZL7Pk
AI - Why Should I care? Plus Exciting Updates from Elon Musk and Neuralink!

Episode 9 - https://youtu.be/enpecqDecC8
AI - Excellence, Innovation & Genius

Episode 10 - https://youtu.be/UsriESlTjdA
Implications for AI as China and the West Decouple

Episode 11 - https://youtu.be/0CpaMb-yw3g
Artificial Intelligence: Ethics, Law & Society

Episode 12 - https://youtu.be/PLzodrLWMq0
AI & Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems

Episode 13 - https://youtu.be/Lm_nrNyJRbA
AI & the Future of Work in Industry 4.0 – the 4th Industrial Revolution

Episode 14 - https://youtu.be/_3E1Mhr_Dt8
Artificial Intelligence and its Implications for Authoritarianism and Democracy

Episode 15 - https://youtu.be/IpMUqHOEd7w
Artificial Intelligence, Consciousness & the Future of Homo Sapiens

Episode 16 - https://youtu.be/mIf7_VMzGKo
AI and its Implications for America's Political Environment

Episode 17 - https://youtu.be/gsMRPnovZGI
Special Episode: Reading From The Génome Affair

Episode 18 - https://youtu.be/UxNxtWDCREM
Artificial Intelligence - Digital Tyranny, Datocracy and the Imitation Game

Episode 19 - https://youtu.be/Db8U0QQWWuY
Does Artificial Intelligence Really Replicate Human Intelligence?

Episode 20 - https://youtu.be/Np18AEq-6DM
AI & Rising Geopolitical Tensions Between China & The West

Episode 21 - https://youtu.be/fOMSvNiixA0
AI & In-vitro Fertilization [IVF]

Episode 22 - https://youtu.be/EQPpRhIV6Kw
AI & Human Intelligence: A Complex Relationship

Episode 23 - https://youtu.be/EAbQ7stY7JQ
AI Upends the World of Structural Biology

Episode 24 - https://youtu.be/Bsb1F8uoBpA
AI & COVID-19: An Extraordinary Contribution

Episode 25 - https://youtu.be/PqL5PCRc8tA
AI, Connectomics & Transhumanism: the Future of Humankind

Episode 26 - https://youtu.be/HI8Zjl8VM8U
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Episode 27 - https://youtu.be/TqWwJYc2GxQ
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Episode 28 - https://youtu.be/89BcThqgcfQ
AI & the Rapidly Escalating Threat from Deep Fake Videos

Episode 29 - https://youtu.be/zvOHRMmJNB4
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Episode 30 - https://youtu.be/br4ygfEWdk0
AI & Social Media | The Most Destructive AI We've Ever Seen?

Episode 31 - https://youtu.be/sOy12ii8zwM
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Episode 32 - https://youtu.be/bixdLL74reE
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Episode 33 - https://youtu.be/tTRm312DgMc
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Episode 34 - https://youtu.be/FpPzC5VP6GM
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Episode 35 - https://youtu.be/bK3xCBwrG8w
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Episode 36 - https://youtu.be/Rc60DQ0L86Q
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Episode 37 - https://youtu.be/UBenYYHbYqM
Will AI [Science & Tech] Benefit From a New Cold War with China?

Episode 38 - https://youtu.be/JewJnPywnOU
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Episode 39 - https://youtu.be/ibuJ8vozyqg
Will AI Perpetuate Bias in Employment, Health Systems, Law and Society?

Episode 40 - https://youtu.be/IJYbPfGC-08
AI | Will it be the Bain of Cyber Criminals?

Episode 41 - https://youtu.be/ozrO5_XTYKQ
AI | What Will it Mean for the Future of Work?

Episode 42 - https://youtu.be/kDKapDK-Vb0
AI | A Harbinger for the End of Democracy?

Episode 43 - https://youtu.be/7XeNyE8CA9I
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Episode 44 - https://youtu.be/mWaPW_UolVo
AI & Geopolitics | Critical Strategic Planning in the Age of China

Episode 45 - https://youtu.be/qOSOc3vJRBk
AI & Humankind | What Might the Future Hold?

Episode 46 - https://youtu.be/atMSV1WAFkg
AI Enabled Surveillance | An Important Tool to Contain Dangerous Personality Traits?

Episode 47 - https://youtu.be/kz7-EDmlGXc
Will AI Favor Authoritarianism or Democracy?

Episode 48 - https://youtu.be/uTvKWQgdOaI
AI | A Key Enabler of Universal Basic Income?

Episode 49 - https://youtu.be/sy48Xqo-3qM
AI & The Future of Government, Industry, Markets &Trade

Episode 50 - https://youtu.be/JU1oGzb5TS0
AI & Surveillance | America’s New Strategy in the Middle East

Episode 51 - https://youtu.be/nOCQjUxLWJY
AI-Enabled Global Government | An Idea Whose Time Has Come?

Episode 52 - https://youtu.be/g1VJqiI3HyE
AI & Healthcare | What Will the Future Look Like? Will it be More Equitable?

Episode 53 - https://youtu.be/ie9KAg_kF7Q
AI & Surveillance | The Ethical Dilemma of Facial Recognition Software

Episode 54 - https://youtu.be/ie9KAg_kF7Q
AI & Regulation | Europe is Leading the Way

Episode 55 - https://youtu.be/l-gcYTZMsm8
AI & Consciousness | Will Machines Soon be Sentient?

Episode 56 - https://youtu.be/-8BaouCn9cs
AI & Regulation | Europe Announces New Rules

Episode 57 - https://youtu.be/243zm7aHImQ
AI & Human Emotion Recognition | Is it Inherently Flawed?

Episode 58 - https://youtu.be/rdXllGj8rbo
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Episode 59 - https://youtu.be/EMbqpN5mbqw
AI & the 4 Little Trees | More on Emotion Recognition

Episode 60 - https://youtu.be/K5wtkj-VTrk
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Episode 61 - https://youtu.be/03KysO3VJgI
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Episode 62 - https://youtu.be/7wmSIWgbuQI
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Episode 63 - https://youtu.be/a_1AmLJD3lo
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Episode 64 - https://youtu.be/9s-Go1TYK9c
AI, Cyber Attacks & the Future of War | Where are We Headed?

Episode 65 - https://youtu.be/1nKbTMzfpqM
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Episode 66 - https://youtu.be/cplR62KTa88
America & the 4th Industrial Revolution | Where do We Go from Here?

Episode 67 - https://youtu.be/RMrqreI-PRw
Artificial Intelligence | [Digital] Life After Death

Episode 68 - https://youtu.be/KzR8NkVdT0Q
Artificial Intelligence | The Fear Factor

Episode 69 - https://youtu.be/BI0HqACc4Ek
Artificial Intelligence | The Trust Factor

Episode 70 - https://youtu.be/nKhqVtQC_NI
Artificial Intelligence | Implications for the Future of Democracy

Episode 71 - https://youtu.be/GKD5hXmnpTU
Artificial Intelligence | Deep Fakes & Pornography

Episode 72 - https://youtu.be/KJdoBm5Kmw8
Artificial Intelligence | Working in the 21st Century

Episode 73 - https://youtu.be/lLY6gF_eeas
AI & Disinformation | Implications for Democracy & Geopolitics

Episode 74 - https://youtu.be/URsauWURj5A
AI, Climate Change & Pandemics | A Case for Global Governance?

Episode 75 - https://youtu.be/cu7xOHpNiO4
Artificial Intelligence | New Year’s Resolutions & Societal Reformation

Episode 76 - https://youtu.be/1-orEsKg5fM
Artificial Intelligence | Meritocracy and the Gathering Storm

Episode 77 - https://youtu.be/jYzyrxhxCJk
AI, Authoritarianism & Democracy | What Does the Future Hold?

Episode 78 – https://youtu.be/G5dlaB8TZJQ
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Episode 79 – https://youtu.be/8pq2ZAxRdcY
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Episode 80 – https://youtu.be/bewLnveVpDI
AI & Human Conflict | Objectivism, Tribalism & the Dunning-Kruger Effect

Episode 81 – https://youtu.be/Z5ZvMYuNhLQ
AI, Climate Change & Migration | Sowing the Seeds of Intraplanetary Discord

Episode 82 – https://youtu.be/mP-r_0pS3P8
Artificial Intelligence in 2022 | Where are We Now and What Does the Future Hold?

Episode 83 – https://youtu.be/vYSW-pceOQE
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Episode 84 – https://youtu.be/IBgF_oyCvpE
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Episode 85 – https://youtu.be/sxGeIZSlYYo
Artificial Intelligence & Healthcare | A Revolution in the Making


Episode 86 – https://youtu.be/gARgH5rlCG8
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Episode 87 – https://youtu.be/baWRuYBKgu4
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Episode 88 – https://youtu.be/6TP5AFtg-6g
AI & Genomics | Accelerating Gene Therapies

Episode 89 – https://youtu.be/_vgLJEoQFY4
Unipolar, Bipolar & Multipolar Worlds | Implications for Humankind

Episode 90 – https://youtu.be/8S7SDcqKNZ0
AI & Neocolonialism | Datocracy & the Surveillance State

Episode 91 – https://youtu.be/RfEIbPNAALo
AI & the Truman Doctrine | The Merits of Preserving the New World Order

Episode 92 – https://youtu.be/q1ybdNC5MiI
The Apollo Moon Landing | Lessons for Civilization in the Age of AI

Episode 93 – https://youtu.be/r1oc9uU8Ct4
Artificial Intelligence & Sapiens 3.0 | Are We Ready?

Episode 94 – https://youtu.be/OqUfXNwqtDU
Artificial Intelligence & Authoritarianism | What’s the Attraction?

Episode 95 – https://youtu.be/-HfFs-XVnKo
Irrationality and Intolerance | Humankind’s Two Greatest Liabilities in the Age of AI

Episode 96 – https://youtu.be/-ITqhjIe4yU
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Episode 97 –
Artificial Intelligence | Implications for Our Future