According to the principle of Occam’s Razor, the simplestexplanation for an occurrence is most likely to be the correct one. Entitiesshould not be multiplied unnecessarily. This makes sense to me. Mostconspiracy theories are too far fetched to be believed by rational thinkers.Just as the shortest physical distance between two points is usually a straightline, the less convoluted a theory is the less probable it will be that holescan be poked in it. The simplest, least serpentine explanation of theassassination attempt on Donald Trump is that some nutjob didn’t like him(there are no shortage of reasons to dislike the man) and decided on his own totake him out. Thomas Crooks was killed after firing a series of shots thatfailed to kill Donald Trump, but did end the life of an innocent bystander whoput himself in the path of a bullet to heroically protect his family.

With this simple explanation accounting for everything thattook place that day, why did many people (including me) immediately reach adifferent conclusion? Why did #Staged trend on Twitter (I can’t make myselfcall the thing X)? Probably because of an alternative theory that has no fancyname that I am aware of. The theory goes like this. If it looks like a duck,swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck. Man didthat assassination attempt, particularly Trump’s dramatic gesture and tough guychant moments after a bullet whizzed by his head, look and swim and quack likea staged event.

Within minutes after Donald Trump was ushered to safety, Iwrote on Facebook that the whole thing struck me as a poorly produced movie scene rather than chaotic reality. Ireferenced Tyler Perry because making fun of his work is something that I dosometimes, but I’m trying to cut down on that. Then I learned that a man named CoreyComperatore was killed by a bullet meant to prevent 45 from having a chance tobecome 47. The life of the gunman was also ended by sharpshooters who openedfire after Crooks took several shots in the direction of the ex-president. Twoother people were reportedly shot by Crooks, but they survived and have sincebeen released from the hospital. Calling the event staged when lives had beenlost, including a rally attendee unfortunate to be in the wrong place at thewrong time, a man who lost his life by being a shield to protect his family, seemedto be in very poor taste. Surely a result of an orchestrated event would not be the unintended death of a civilian. Comperatore’s death along with injuries suffered by others confirmed that it was best to go withOccam. So I took down my Facebook post and put aside my suspicions.

In the time that has since passed there have been no newdevelopments or revelations. It has been remarkably quiet. Trump rode the highof narrowly avoiding death into the Republican convention. Those who adore himturned the camera captured sight of him throwing a fist in the air, blood streaming down hisface, the American flag fitting neatly in the frame, into merchandise imagery. Onemore reason to be enthralled by the guy. He’s a bad ass who came away from theordeal with nothing more than a band-aid on his ear. A bandage that seemed waytoo big, but why quibble? Bad assery was still on display, and what could be amore essential characteristic for a President of the United States than that?No way was Biden going to steal his thunder with comparatively mundaneachievements like low unemployment or record high stock market numbers.

Yet somehow Joe Biden did subsequently steal the spotlight –by dropping out of the race and shortly thereafter being officially replaced byVice President Kamala Harris. Within ten days or so, hardly anyone was talkingabout Trump being shot at anymore. His campaign was forced to pivot to a differentderogatory accusation than “Sleepy.” As of the time I’m writing this they arestill searching, because accusing Kamala Harris of suddenly becoming Blackafter previously being exclusively Indian is not going to cut it. A disastrousinterview with the NABJ won’t be helpful to the Trump campaign either.Meanwhile, the Democrats still have momentum from selection of a running matefor Kamala and their own convention to look forward to. By all appearances,narrowly avoiding death turned out not to be the deal closer. Instead,Americans may go the old-fashioned route of looking at the candidates’ policiesand qualifications to determine who our next president will be.

With less emotion and greater imagination, I decided tore-evaluate the shooting at Trump’s rally in Butler, PA. Why did it initiallyfeel staged, and if in fact it was, what would the specifics of the scam be? How could everything be accounted for? Why would they think they could get away with it? As a writer offiction, I am accustomed to coming up with a dramatic scenario and thenfiguring out how to lead up to it in a way that is plausible. For a conspiracytheory to be effective, one need not be able to prove it. It only has to bepossible, to be sensible, to hold up under scrutiny. The main hurdle to overcomewas the death of Corey Comperatore. Nobody would stage something meant toimprove a political candidate’s poll numbers at the expense of someone dying.His death needed to be an accident. The following is what I (in discussion ofthe matter with my wife) came up with. I have no proof. Occam’s Razor statesthat it is nonsense because it has too many moving parts. Certain fantasticalevents are staged not by duplicitous man, but by God. This is why the word“miracle” was created and added to the dictionary. Logic can’t explaineverything. But that doesn’t mean we can’t come up with alternative theories.

Trump’s campaign realizes that their lead will probably be short-lived because they have read the tea leaves. Too many prominentfigures are calling for Joe Biden to bow out. So, he probably will, to bereplaced by the far more dynamic Kamala Harris, and Trump’s advantage wouldevaporate. As a pre-emptive strike, shortly before the boost they hope to getfrom the GOP convention and selection of Best-Selling author JD Vance asrunning mate, Trump’s team hatches a devious plan. The main thing needed topull it off is a patsy. Someone with shooting experience who would be willingto help the GOP campaign because he is either Republican or neutral. Someone whowould gladly take a duffel bag full of cash in exchange for getting up on theroof of a garage and firing shots in the direction of Donald Trump. Convince the kid that nobody will beharmed because the gun will contain blanks or some non-lethal projectile. 'Don’t even hit him' would be the directive, just come close to make it look good. Tell Crooks that he will be allowed toescape and never become a suspect. In case anyone sees and can ID him, it isbest to put Crooks into hiding. Change his identity. Live the rest of his lifesomewhere else under a new name and plenty of money in his new bank account.Even if spotted by people prior to shooting, which is what happened, nobodywill interfere until he has done his part. Crooks agrees because he believes no one, including himself, will be killed. He agrees for the age old reason of greed $$$ along with securing victory for the Republican.

Crooks is being lied to by plan organizers. His gun will contain liveammunition because bullets need to be retrieved from the scene to make it lookreal. The bullets fired at him in return will also be real. He will not beallowed to escape. That would be reckless. Eventually he would talk too much,maybe under the influence of alcohol while trying to charm a pretty girl.Leaving him alive is too big of a risk to take. Crooks must be the sacrificiallamb, only he does not realize he has volunteered for that role. Nobody other than him issupposed to die in this plan. If Corey Comperatore stays in his seat, the only blood shedwill be from a bag that Trump presses to the side of his head while covered bySecret Service agents. Movie magic. Then he majestically arises, refusing to let the agentskeep him safely out of potential harm’s way until he…you know the rest, that the crowd goes wild in response to his display of patriotic machismso instead of him ducking for cover in case morebullets are on the way. Trump probably would have shouted “Yippee Ki-Yay, MF”if Bruce Willis didn’t already claim that line for Die Hard. But "fight fight fight" is a suitable battle cry.

The reaction of rally attendees seen behind Trump was somuted (imho) given the circumstances prior to their hero rising like a phoenixfrom the ashes, that I considered if they were in on the plan. Not everyone atthe rally, just those you could see on TV. If they did not know what was goingto happen, then the result could have been a stampede that killed someone. Evenwhen bullets miss, it does not necessarily mean that nobody dies. Those withgreat seats being in on the plan, believing like Crooks that the bullets wouldbe blanks, enabled them to remain calm. But not too calm. It would also mean that CoreyComperatore did not think his heroic gesture would cause him harm.

This is probably too far of a stretch though.The fewer people involved in a plot, the better the odds of success.Involvement of more people creates more opportunity for someone to crack andspill the beans. Best to keep the number of perpetrators in the know as few aspossible. The real reaction of those in the frame therefore is not calm, but people who are stunned by what's happening.

The plan worked, if a plan is what it was, because no funnybusiness has been exposed. Not yet anyway. An investigation is not going to belaunched as result of this blog post. Medical records have not been released toprove or disprove that Trump was hit by a bullet, or shrapnel, or glass fromthe teleprompter. We are left to accept the official story that Trump’s bloodwas legitimately shed. Remarkably little has emerged about the shooter in theaftermath. He did not leave behind damning social media posts that showed hewas a ticking time bomb. Thomas Crooks was simply a young man who had access toan AR-15 and decided to kill Donald Trump when he came to town to forceRepublicans to run a better candidate. That’s a crazy thing to do, so we’releft to accept that even though nobody in his life had reason to suspect it,Crooks was insane. Or insanely hateful of Donald Trump, a man that it is prettyeasy for many to loathe. Corey Comperatore tragically died in heroic fashion.And Donald Trump – he continues his streak as the luckiest man of all time.Can’t take him out in criminal court, can’t take him out with a wannabeassassin’s bullet, so all that’s left is for Kamala Harris to repeat onElection Day 2024 what Joe Biden accomplished on Election Day 2020.

As for my conspiracy theory presented here for your examination, I’m not sure if it has anyholes in it. But it is still probably less convincing than the principle ofOccam’s Razor. Most likely there was a legitimate attempt on Donald Trump’s life. Factors such as security incompetence, and the wildness of a man beingshot at and receiving only a scratch on his ear for the effort, and Crooks being immediatelykilled so unavailable for comment, and a presidential candidate being giftedwith the photo-op of the century to assist his campaign, stirred suspicion ofstaging. Unless/until an investigator much closer to the evidence than I amunearths evidence of a fake assassination attempt, the official story must be accepted asgospel. Sherlock Holmes was not available to look into the matter, him beingfictional and all, so I did my best detective work in his place. If it turnsout that the theory presented here is correct and Occam has been defeated, then yes, I do wanta cookie as reward.

For now, we must accept that Donald Trump is so brave anddetermined that not even a bullet nicking his ear as it flew past could fazehim. But you would think that someone supposedly so courageous wouldn’t be afraidof a little debate, unless the debate is moderated by his friends and takes place in front ofhis fans. If a bullet can’t stop him then what danger can be posed by Q&Ain an impartial setting where journalists are allowed to fact check the mostblatant of perceived lies?  If theshooting in Pennsylvania was not staged then surely Donald Trump can’t beintimidated by a mere debate stage. So one would think. But the world is a strange place indeed.