When should I adopt a new technology? When should I take risks? When should I play it safe?

It all ties to risk. Ten years after reading and rereading Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s work, I think I understand a bit more.

I must know what falls within my circle of control. More importantly, I must know what I cannot control.

This view of looking at everything from the prism of risk is echoed by the thinkers I admire—Hayek, Taleb, and Seneca. In economics, in daily life – and in what I try to do in tech.

12 years ago I learned the first step:
“Focus on what’s under my control and leave what is not.”

10 years ago I learned to take it one step further:
“Focus on what’s under my control and render what’s not ineffective” (Antifragile, Taleb)

This is the essence of Taleb’s barbell strategy. In investing, keep 90 % of capital in ultra-secure assets and put the remaining 10 % in highly speculative bets with unlimited upside (and downside). However that 10 % fares, you won’t be ruined; your tranquility remains intact.

In tech and startups, the analogy is to design systems that are ultra-stable—using technologies the team knows and trusts—while reserving 10 % for bleeding-edge experiments. Juniors often disagree; seniors rarely do. Juniors get excited about every shiny tool without proof of its durability (a la the Lindy effect).

The barbell strategy doesn’t encourage timidity; it limits the cost of being wrong. I want to survive—and to do so wisely.

I’m not chasing hyper-growth;

I’m chasing sustainable growth,

in both

business

and

life.