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Flickr Graphic By Deb

Looking through world headlines these days, you can’t help but take notice of all that is going on with Russia on the world stage. For me, an interesting sidebar to these global events are stories on the role that Hungary could potentially play in Russia’s plans.

The setting of my soon to be released fiction novel, “The Budapest Experiment”, takes place in Hungary in the year 1991. Having spent some time there in the early nineties, I have always held an interest in the progress of Hungary’s democracy, economy, and people. Heavy subject matter, I agree, but I hope you find it interesting.

I promise my next blog will have lighter content, as I provide an update on my experiences at The 2015 Pub Sense Summit, a conference dedicated to aspiring authors.

Region in Crisis
The annexation of Crimea and the support of rebel forces in eastern Ukraine have resulted in serious economic sanctions against Russia from the US, Western Europe, and other nations in 2014. Additional sanctions in 2015 seem inevitable. This, combined with falling oil prices, have done some serious damage to the Russian economy. Many are predicting a renewal of the Cold War, and every day there are stories of Russia flexing its military muscle, in one capacity or another, at different locations around the globe. On top of this, the recent assassination of Boris Nemstov, leader of a political opposition group against Putin’s policies, adds more fuel to the fire.

Recent assaults in the Ukraine cities of Donetsk, Lugansk, and Mariupol are evidence that the alleged Russian backed rebel movement is gaining momentum. Securing critical border locations and transportation routes between Ukraine and Russia would allow for covert movements of military resources between the two countries. I am certainly no expert in the area of global political, and military strategies, but it would not be surprising for me to see the rebels slowly gain more control of Ukrainian territory. Perhaps by the end of 2015 going so far as to make a move on Odessa, a major Ukrainian seaport on the northern shores of the Black Sea with key trade routes to Eastern and Western Europe. A recent ceasefire agreement between the rebels and Ukraine government seems to be falling apart quickly, with the rebel forces gaining control of yet another city in eastern Ukraine. The big question is will the US and its allies have to become involved in some military capacity to stop the rebel advances, increasing tensions with Russia, and putting the world on the brink?

What's Hungary Got To Do With It?
Much like the protagonist in my fiction novel, my first trip to Hungary was in January of 1991. It was fourteen months after the fall of the Berlin wall and the perceived end of the Cold War that had been going on for decades. I remember it as a time of great excitement, hope, and anticipation, as Russia and the former Soviet Bloc countries in Eastern/Central Europe were transitioning from Communism to Democracy, and from state to market economies. Hungary and Poland were at the forefront of this transition, with business laws in place to encourage foreign direct investment, privatization, and repatriation of profits.

As we look at Hungary 25 years later, there is an interesting dynamic going on with the current ruling Fidesz party and the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. Some experts feel the Hungarian government is shifting allegiances more toward Russia and away from the European Union. The country’s key geographical location in Central Europe could be a vital piece in the political strategy puzzle that Vladimir Putin may be trying to put together. While this may seem like a far-fetched idea, citizens of Hungary are concerned about this, evidenced by large demonstrations in Budapest recently. This dynamic was reinforced by a recent cordial meeting between Putin and Orban on February 17, 2015, where an agreement was reached over natural gas supplies and routes. Putin’s meeting was sandwiched in between the reportedly, not so friendly, meetings with European Union (EU) leaders the German Chancellor Angela Merkel, and Poland’s Prime Minister Ewa Kopacz. As all three of these meetings were taking place, Hungarians took to the streets of Budapest in protest, fears of a return to a Communist way of life living in the hearts of many.

Orban has recently come under scrutiny for returning the country toward centralized systems in public education and administration. Political corruption in the government has also been made to be a point of contention. The US recently denied six Hungarian diplomats entry into the country based on outstanding corruption charges. Orban is now faced with a political tug of war and the challenge of straddling the fence, trying to balance relations with both Russia and the EU. Hungary has been part of the EU since 2004. Will Hungary be the first EU country to defect and join instead the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU)? Will the EEU expand their integration to include military and political union? It will be an interesting situation to keep an eye on.

Thanks so much for reading my blog and please add in your thoughts and comments. We would love to hear them. It really is a situation that has ramifications across the globe, and can have an effect on literally all of us.

Hope you can join me again for my next blog as I take you for a behind the scenes look at Pub Sense Summit.

Lots of up to date stuff on The Budapest Beacon , if you are interested.

Sign posted referencing the Soviet invasion that crushed a Hungarian democratic revolution and uprising in 1956. Symbolic maybe, but could it really be happening all over again?
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Flickr Photo by Zsolt Vajda


Maurice