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Michal
https://www.goodreads.com/michal_dubrawski
“For superforecasters, beliefs are hypotheses to be tested, not treasures to be guarded.”
― Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
― Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
“Ignoring the vices of our friends and the virtues of our enemies sets us up for nasty surprises.”
― Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?
― Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?
“Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. Three times is enemy action”
― Goldfinger
― Goldfinger
“More broadly, most of us believe that we have arrived at many of our deeply held beliefs through careful thought and do not want to recognize that if we had been brought up by different parents, let alone in a different society, our fundamental values and attitudes would be very different.”
― Perception and Misperception in International Politics
― Perception and Misperception in International Politics
“The common saying is “I’ll believe it when I see it,” but human perception is more accurately characterized as “I’ll see it when I believe it.” In international politics where expectations of hostility are common, the results are often unfortunate.”
― Perception and Misperception in International Politics
― Perception and Misperception in International Politics
Michal’s 2024 Year in Books
Take a look at Michal’s Year in Books, including some fun facts about their reading.
2,376 books
|
267 friends
224 books
|
12 friends
230 books
|
35 friends
17 books
|
9 friends
255 books
|
12 friends
1,489 books
|
111 friends
1,332 books
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26 friends
0 books
|
92 friends
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