Omer

“Making the right prediction is just as important as getting the prediction right.”
― Duncan J. Watts, Everything is Obvious: Once You Know the Answer

“And knowing this, it’s tempting to take the next step of assuming that this future trajectory has in some cosmic sense already been determined, even if it has not yet been revealed to us. But this last step would be a mistake. Until it is actually realized, all we can say about the future stock price is that it has a certain probability of being within a certain range—not because it actually lies somewhere in this range and we’re just not sure where it is, but in the stronger sense that it only exists at all as a range of probabilities. Put another way, there is a difference between being uncertain about the future and the future itself being uncertain. The former is really just a lack of information—something we don’t know—whereas the latter implies that the information is, in principle, unknowable. The former is the orderly universe of Laplace’s demon, where if we just try hard enough, if we’re just smart enough, we can predict the future. The latter is an essentially random world, where the best we can ever hope for is to express our predictions of various outcomes as probabilities.”
― Duncan J. Watts, Everything is Obvious: Once You Know the Answer

“Miriam had lost the talent for friendship when she was young, and once gone, it was a difficult thing to recover. Like loneliness, the absence of friendship was self-perpetuating: the harder you tried to make people like you, the less likely they were to do so; most people recognized right away that something was off, and they shied away.”
― Paula Hawkins, A Slow Fire Burning

“There is a proper measure in things. There are, finally, certain boundaries short of and beyond which what is right cannot exist”).”
― Jordan Ellenberg, How Not to Be Wrong: The Power of Mathematical Thinking