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“The palaeo-record shows that in the Earth System abrupt changes and surprises are a common feature, and that environmental extremes beyond those recorded during the period of instrumental record occur frequently. Especially large risks to the Earth System are associated with the ‘threshold-abrupt change’ behaviour that arises when a well-buffered system is forced beyond a certain limit. Until the time that the threshold is approached, it appears that the system is unresponsive to the forcing function. However, when the threshold is passed, the system can move to another state very quickly, a state that may prove to be difficult to reverse or may even be irreversible. Changes of this nature are especially dangerous in the context of global change. Societies can have little or no warning that a forcing factor is approaching such a threshold, and by the time that the change in Earth System functioning is observed, it will likely be too late to avert the major change.”
― Global Change and the Earth System: A Planet Under Pressure: Executive Summary
― Global Change and the Earth System: A Planet Under Pressure: Executive Summary

“In some cases, those who express extreme views start believing the things they share even if their initial goal was only to increase their standing within a group. And then there are cases where the theories being shared are so outlandish or unlikely that we have to wonder: Do they really believe these things? If we were to sit the person down for a polygraph test and quiz them about whether they truly think the earth is flat, the grieving parents who lost their children to gun violence are just actors, or Hillary Clinton is a pedophile, what would we find? Would they (or the lie detector machine) reveal that perhaps their beliefs are not quite so literal? If so, why are they spreading such lies? Understanding the mechanics of social groups—especially those connected by shared beliefs, such as religious groups, sects, and cults—can help shed light on this question. As Jonathan Haidt suggested, the deliberate sharing of a lie can act as a shibboleth—a kind of linguistic password that identifies people within a group. “Many who study religion have noted that it’s the very impossibility of a claim that makes it a good signal of one’s commitment to the faith,” he wrote. “You don’t need faith to believe obvious things. Proclaiming that the election was stolen surely does play an identity-advertising role in today’s America.”
― Misbelief: What Makes Rational People Believe Irrational Things
― Misbelief: What Makes Rational People Believe Irrational Things

“The personality elements of the funnel of misbelief
Personality—broadly understood as individual differences—plays a role in explaining why some of us are more susceptible to misbelief than others.
It is extremely difficult to do personality research on misbelievers, since they instinctively mistrust the motives of the researchers. However, some common traits have been observed.
Being more prone to misremembering, falling into the trap of false recall and false recognition, feeds misbelief.
Seeing patterns where none exist is linked to misbelief.
Overtrusting our intuitions is linked to misbelief.
Decision-making biases such as the conjunction fallacy, illusory correlations, and the hindsight bias are more pronounced in misbelievers.
Narcissism plays a role in misbelief.
Personality cannot be easily changed, but knowing which traits correlate with misbelief can help us to identify risky points.”
― Misbelief: What Makes Rational People Believe Irrational Things
Personality—broadly understood as individual differences—plays a role in explaining why some of us are more susceptible to misbelief than others.
It is extremely difficult to do personality research on misbelievers, since they instinctively mistrust the motives of the researchers. However, some common traits have been observed.
Being more prone to misremembering, falling into the trap of false recall and false recognition, feeds misbelief.
Seeing patterns where none exist is linked to misbelief.
Overtrusting our intuitions is linked to misbelief.
Decision-making biases such as the conjunction fallacy, illusory correlations, and the hindsight bias are more pronounced in misbelievers.
Narcissism plays a role in misbelief.
Personality cannot be easily changed, but knowing which traits correlate with misbelief can help us to identify risky points.”
― Misbelief: What Makes Rational People Believe Irrational Things
“Virtually all of the discussions on the consequences of global change for human well-being focus on the material and physical aspects of such change – provision of food and water, security of infrastructure, impacts on the economy, and so on. Virtually no analyses consider the psychological impacts or consequences of global change on individual humans and on their societies. Many in the scientific community may consider these aspects to be irrational and inconsequential. Yet, in the final analysis, it will be the human perceptions of global change and the risks associated with it that will determine societal responses. At the heart of these perceptions is the fundamental place of humanity in the natural world.”
― Global Change and the Earth System: A Planet Under Pressure: Executive Summary
― Global Change and the Earth System: A Planet Under Pressure: Executive Summary

“Because so many of our beliefs depend upon the culture we share with others, diagnosing patients from other cultures raises many problems. If hearing voices talking to you is a widely shared experience within a culture, then this experience cannot be treated as a sign of schizophrenia. On the other hand, people from within the same culture can easily recognize the kind of experiences that would be considered signs of madness.
In Northwick Park Hospital there were many patients who were adherents of religions with which the staff were not familiar – fundamental Christian sects as well as branches of oriental faiths. We could not be sure if it was reasonable for a man belonging to a Christian sect founded in California in 1962 to believe that by wearing a half-pound cross on a wire round his neck he pleased God, who would then pass him messages by directing his eyes to particular biblical texts. We could not be sure if it was reasonable for a devout Hindu to interpret individuals and animals in the local setting as manifestations of Krishna reborn. Reading accounts of the beliefs of adherents to these sects did not help us, but the relevant spiritual leaders, on the basis of a few moments’ conversation, could state with confidence that these ideas were due to illness. We therefore made a practice of always consulting them. Typically they considered that the patient believed literally in what was intended as a metaphor. The patients’ ideas were much too concrete.”
― Schizophrenia: A Very Short Introduction
In Northwick Park Hospital there were many patients who were adherents of religions with which the staff were not familiar – fundamental Christian sects as well as branches of oriental faiths. We could not be sure if it was reasonable for a man belonging to a Christian sect founded in California in 1962 to believe that by wearing a half-pound cross on a wire round his neck he pleased God, who would then pass him messages by directing his eyes to particular biblical texts. We could not be sure if it was reasonable for a devout Hindu to interpret individuals and animals in the local setting as manifestations of Krishna reborn. Reading accounts of the beliefs of adherents to these sects did not help us, but the relevant spiritual leaders, on the basis of a few moments’ conversation, could state with confidence that these ideas were due to illness. We therefore made a practice of always consulting them. Typically they considered that the patient believed literally in what was intended as a metaphor. The patients’ ideas were much too concrete.”
― Schizophrenia: A Very Short Introduction

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